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Premiums skyrocket Losing that subsidy help would come on top of premium increases next year from insurance companies that are hiking rates partly because they expect the subsidies will go away and increase their costs, said Sara Collins, senior scholar at the nonprofit Commonwealth Fund. In 2026, it will be the third year in a row that insurance companies are seeing an increase in medical costs regardless of what happens to the subsidies, and it is affecting both employer-based and ACA plans. The median premium increase will be 18 percent across all insurance companies, said Justin Giovanelli of the Center on Health Insurance Reforms at Georgetown University. “That's the largest increase we've seen since 2018,” he said. The expiration of the subsidies, and the subsequent spike in premiums for those on the ACA plans, are part of that calculation. For those earning less than 250 percent of the Federal Poverty Level, which is $80,375 for a family of four, monthly premiums will more than quadruple, from $169 a month to $919 on average, Collins said. Many healthier people will likely drop coverage because they can no longer afford or consider it worthwhile, but sicker people with higher medical bills may stick with it, she said. Insurance companies expect to face higher medical bills and more risk for costs spread across fewer people, which accounts for anywhere from 1 to 14 percent of that 18-percent increase in premiums, according to different analyses. For Walters and her husband, David, it is even more stark. Their $1,531 monthly premium was covered by the enhanced subsidy due to their income, she said. Now, after opening the dreaded email, Walters learned they would be facing that full amount, which was unthinkable and unaffordable, Walters said. But David just got a new job with Prisma Health and with it — “Thank you, Jesus” — comes health insurance, she said. Her daughter, Nicole Bateman, is not so fortunate. Her premium would go from $178 to $434 each month. That $250 increase is unaffordable for her daughter, Walters said.
