Copyright San Diego Union-Tribune
The 10th Saturday of the season was rough for the Pac-12. Yes, Oregon State’s 10-7 victory over Washington State was the hardest of hard watches, 60 minutes of offensive offense and depleted rosters from programs that were cast adrift in the realignment seas. But the brutality wasn’t limited to Corvallis. It was a rough Saturday, as well, for the future Pac-12 — for a conference that doesn’t exist but nonetheless hopes to sneak into a playoff that is quite real. Fresno State’s blowout win at Boise State left the rebuilt Pac-12 with an extremely narrow path into the College Football Playoff. Only one of the eight teams scheduled to compete next season has fewer than three losses this fall. That would be San Diego State, which is 7-1 with four games remaining. The Aztecs must win out against a stout lineup that features three teams with winning records (Hawaii, Boise State and New Mexico), then win the Mountain West championship game. And even then, SDSU would need help from carnage in the American. It’s a few weeks early to declare the Aztecs eliminated, but that endgame is rapidly coming into focus. Now, to be clear: The Pac-12 could not claim SDSU’s playoff bid as its own — at least not officially. The Aztecs won’t become members until July 1. But the afterglow of an appearance would provide momentum for the reconstructed conference, just as SDSU’s run to the 2023 Final Four would have aided the Pac-12 if former executives had been smart enough to add the Aztecs that spring (along with SMU) before everything imploded. It made no difference whether the CFP bid came courtesy of the Aztecs, Boise State, Texas State or any of the six schools pledged to the next iteration of the Pac-12. The bid itself would have been rocket fuel. But with four weeks remaining in the regular season, the path ahead is treacherous. The American appears too strong, with an array of good teams and stout resumes. Here’s just one example: North Texas, which has risen to the American’s upper tier, beat Washington State by 49 points, and Washington State beat the Aztecs by 26. The selection committee could not justify putting SDSU into the field ahead of the Mean Green even if the former is 12-1 and the latter is 11-2. Increasingly, it appears the conference that doesn’t yet exist won’t reap the benefits of a berth in the playoff that is oh-so-real. To the power rankings: 1. San Diego State (7-1) Result: beat Wyoming 24-7 Next up: at Hawaii (8 p.m. on Spectrum Sports) Comment: The Aztecs have allowed more than 10 points in just two games: the loss at Washington State and a blowout victory at Colorado State in which one touchdown came in garbage time. Their defense is better than good. It’s historically good. (Previous: 2) 2. Fresno State (6-3) Result: won at Boise State 30-7 Next up: idle Comment: Let’s place the victory in Boise in the results-we-didn’t-see-coming file. If the Bulldogs win out and receive a morsel of help — Boise State needs to lose again — they will advance to face SDSU for the Mountain West title. (Previous: 4) 3. Boise State (6-3) Result: lost to Fresno State 30-7 Next up: idle Comment: The Broncos lost both the game and their starting quarterback, Maddux Madsen, who likely will miss several weeks, and perhaps the season, with what appeared to be an ankle injury. His absence partly explains a performance by Boise State that prompted coach Spencer Danielson to apologize to fans. (Previous: 1) 4. Washington State (4-5) Result: lost at Oregon State 10-7 Next up: idle Comment: That was exactly the defensive performance we expected from the Cougars, but their offense apparently remained in Pullman for the weekend. An inexcusable performance. (Previous: 3) 5. Oregon State (2-7) Result: beat Washington State 10-7 Next up: vs. Sam Houston (7 p.m. on The CW) Comment: Did the Beavers wait too long to fire Trent Bray? That was clear at the time and is beyond obvious now. Might they have become bowl-eligible if they had made the coaching change weeks earlier? The evidence is mounting. (Previous: 7) 6. Texas State (3-5) Result: lost to James Madison 52-20 Next up: at Louisiana-Lafayette (2 p.m. on ESPN+) Comment: On the bright side, this disappointing season has reduced the likelihood of losing coach GJ Kinne to the coaching carousel. (Previous: 5) 7. Utah State (4-4) Result: did not play Next up: vs. Nevada (4:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network) Comment: Some context on the right side of Utah State’s ledger: The four losses have come against opponents (Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, New Mexico and Hawaii) with a combined record of 27-8. (Previous: 6) 8. Colorado State (2-6) Result: did not play Next up: vs. UNLV (6:30 p.m. on Fox Sports 1) Comment: Plenty of established but underperforming head coaches at power conference schools will be available for hire this winter. The Rams could get their version of Bronco Mendenhall or Barry Odom if they play it right. (Previous: 8)
