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James Franklin was unpacking the trajectory of his tenure at Penn State, noting that when he took the job in 2014, the program was average. It moved to good, then great. “But we’re not an elite football team yet,” he said at a press conference. “And as hard as we have worked to go from average to good, from good to great, the work that it’s going to take to get to (an) elite program is going to be just as hard as the ground and the distance we’ve already traveled.” That was seven years ago — almost to the day. PSU just lost 27-26 to No. 4 Ohio State. The Nittany Lions have not beaten a top-five team since then, either. Most programs would trade places with Penn State in a heartbeat. The elite ones would not. Even PSU’s College Football Playoff semifinal run last season was tinged with the knowledge of beating SMU and Boise State to get there, then losing to Notre Dame — an elite program — once there. Which brings us to Saturday night. Penn State, ranked third, hosts No. 6 Oregon. It wouldn’t technically be a top-five win, but it would sure feel like it. And Franklin got his nighttime White Out to boot. A 6:30 p.m. kickoff on NBC. Beaver Stadium at full throat. “I know that Fox tried to argue that a 12 o’clock White Out was the same as a 7 o’clock White Out,” Franklin said. “I think people would disagree with that.” Always with the shoulder chip. Oregon coach Dan Lanning can match manufactured grievance for manufactured grievance, too. He bristled this week when asked about the Ducks' clever decision to stay in Altoona — a mountain skip and a jump from State College — being announced by Blair County Convention Center reps. “I only worry about what we control,” Lanning said at a press conference, shaking his head. These two met last in last year's Big Ten title game, won by the Ducks 45-37. Penn State brings back the bulk of its team from that game. So does Oregon. PSU is a 3½-point favorite, likely due to home-field advantage. And Penn State, in every game but the very biggest, has an advantage in Happy Valley. Hostile crowd. Remote setting. Grass field. And of course PSU’s lines, perhaps the best offensive line/defensive line combo Franklin has had. The offensive line plows holes for an excellent 1-2 punch at running back in Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton and the line protects quarterback Drew Allar, who has an underwhelming four touchdown passes vs. mediocre competition this year. PSU’s offense has also been a little underwhelming. Nothing about Oregon has. The Ducks have dominated better competition, including a 69-3 romp over Oklahoma State that effectively ended Mike Gundy’s career in Stillwater. Quarterback Dante Moore has been good in four starts, the Duck defense has been even better — zero passing touchdowns allowed, 27.45% on third downs and 12 first downs per game. If Penn State were making more explosive plays, perhaps that wouldn’t matter as much. But PSU averages 12 third-down attempts per game — and converts 39%. “All these types of games come down to four to six plays on offense, four to six plays on defense,” Franklin said. “A special teams play. Usually going to come down to a touchdown, a one-possession type game. ... I expect this to be a four-quarter battle that’s going to come down to the end of the game. I like how we’re preparing for the moment.” In a low-possession game, which this could be, Oregon gets the nod. Penn State remains a win short of its elite status. My pick: Oregon 28, Penn State 24 Other Big Ten games Indiana at Iowa 2:30 p.m. Saturday (Peacock) Over the years, ranked teams have lost in Kinnick Stadium. IU, off a 63-10 win against Illinois, is ripe for an upset. But the Hoosiers are so darn efficient with their offense — and Iowa isn’t — that it’s hard to see a stunner in Iowa City. Line: Indiana by 8. Pick: Indiana 30, Iowa 23 Ohio State at Washington 2:30 p.m. Saturday (CBS) The Huskies haven’t lost at home since 2021, and their fans will be ready to blast off vs. the Buckeyes. Demond Williams is the type of mobile quarterback who can cause good defenses heartburns. OSU, of course, has top-tier talent but this line has moved hard in UW’s direction. Line: OSU by 8½. Pick: Ohio State 28, Washington 25 Southern California at Illinois 11 a.m. Saturday (Fox) The Illini took it on the chin at Indiana in more ways than one. The 63-10 loss also came with injuries to their top defensive backs. While USC will be playing at 9 a.m. on its body clock, its receivers and quarterback Jayden Maiava should have a field day. Line: USC by 6½. Pick: USC 35, Illinois 28 Rutgers at Minnesota 11 a.m. Saturday (BTN) Rutgers has shown cracks in its defense all season. Look for the Gophers to exploit that as RU quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis returns to the campus where he used to start. Line: Minnesota by 5½. Pick: Minnesota 27, Rutgers 23 UCLA at Northwestern 2:30 p.m. Saturday (BTN) The Bruins had two weeks to absorb the firing of their coach, and now face the weakest offense they’ve seen this season. I think you’ll see UCLA regroup a bit on the lakefront. Line: Northwestern by 6½. Pick: UCLA 20, Northwestern 19 Sam's record Last week: 6-2 straight up, 3-5 against the spread This season: 53-6 straight up, 24-24 against the spread
