Copyright Athlon Sports
The New Orleans Saints are finally in the true rebuild they’ve needed for years, currently holding a 1-7 record. ESPN projects their end-of-season win-loss total to be 4.5-12.5, tying them with the Jets for the second-worst record in the league. These struggles have led them to bench second-year quarterback Spencer Rattler in favor of their rookie second-round pick, Tyler Shough, per Ian Rapoport. Rattler has been playing solid football this season, given what’s been around him, but the Saints haven’t been able to win games. Whether that is because of Rattler is open to debate, but ultimately, head coach Kellen Moore has decided to make a change after New Orleans’ 3-23 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. Did Rattler Deserve to be Benched? Spencer Rattler has played better football than many expected this season. He’s been fairly productive, throwing for 1,586 yards, eight touchdowns, and five interceptions. He’s tied for fifth in the league with 11 big-time throws this season, per PFF, but that’s come at a cost. Rattler leads the league in turnover-worthy plays, with 17. This has been a consistent theme throughout Rattler’s career: he’s an aggressive gunslinger-type quarterback, but his lack of true high-level traits can make that a negative quality when the environment around him is poor. And that’s certainly the case in New Orleans, especially along their offensive line. According to ESPN’s Sam Hoppen, the Saints’ offensive line ranked 31st in pass block win rate at just 51% heading into Week 8. Rattler has done what he can to mitigate these problems, with the league’s sixth-lowest time to throw, but he’s still faced 111 pressures this season, which is the fourth-most. Rattler was benched in the third quarter of the Saints’ game against the Buccaneers for Shough, and at that point, it made sense. The offense couldn’t put points on the board all game, with Rattler totaling just 136 passing yards and two turnovers. According to the graph below, Rattler had arguably the worst performance of any quarterback in the league on Sunday. Though Rattler has been better than expected this season, it’s hard to argue why New Orleans shouldn’t try to see what they have in Shough. Will Shough Right The Ship? Shough was one of the more divisive quarterback prospects in this year’s draft cycle. The highs are high with him, as he offers loads of arm talent and above-average athleticism, but his processing and decision-making were spotty at best. Another problem of Shough’s is his struggles under pressure. When he was kept clean, Shough looked great in college, throwing for 2,338 yards, 17 touchdowns and only two interceptions, with a completion rate of 71.3%. When pressured, however, those numbers plummeted. On his 150 pressured dropbacks, Shough threw six touchdowns to four interceptions and accounted for seven turnover-worthy plays. His 71.3% completion rate fell to just 42.3%, and he would often make thoroughly questionable decisions to avoid a sack, as seen below. Considering how poor the Saints’ offensive line has been this season, putting Shough under center seems like a recipe for disaster. However, when you’re 1-7, there’s likely some pressure from the front office to start the quarterback they drafted with a top-40 pick. To be fair, the highs are high with Shough. If Moore has managed to help Shough improve his processing speed and decision-making since arriving in New Orleans, it could pay dividends in helping the Saints win some games down the stretch. Ultimately, choosing Shough makes sense. Regardless of who’s under center for the Saints, it seems likely they’re headed for a top-five pick in this year’s draft. While it might not look good for the team’s decision-makers, if they have the chance to draft one of the top quarterbacks in this class, it would be useful to know if it’s already time to move on from what they have now.
