Copyright Newsweek
A new poll points to potential trouble for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm elections, with Democrats holding a commanding lead in the race for control of the House. A new YouGov survey, conducted on November 5 among 5,066 adults, shows that 41 percent think the Democrats are more likely to win majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2026, while only 30 percent said the same about the Republicans. However, 29 percent said they are not sure. Why It Matters The results suggest growing public unease with Republican leadership and offer an early indication that Democrats could regain momentum after a turbulent 2024 election cycle. If the trend holds, it could reshape the balance of power in Congress and complicate President Donald Trump’s efforts to advance his legislative agenda. What To Know Historically, the party holding the presidency almost always loses ground in midterm congressional elections. Since World War II, the president’s party has lost an average of 26 House seats and 3 to 4 Senate seats in midterms. When the president’s approval rating falls below 50 percent, the losses tend to be more severe. For instance, presidents with sub-50 percent job approval have seen their parties lose an average of 37 House seats, compared with just about 14 seats when the approval rating was above 50 percent. Trump's approval rating has consistently been below the 50 percent mark for most of his second term. The latest YouGov/Economist poll put his approval rating at 39 percent, while Newsweek's tracker puts it at 42 percent, its lowest point ever. Political science scholars attribute this pattern to a combination of factors: lower turnout among supporters of the ruling party, greater motivation among opposition voters, and a national mood of dissatisfaction with the status quo. But recent election results suggest trouble for the Republicans, with voters who fueled their gains in 2024 turning away from the party. Democrats notched a series of sweeping victories in key races across the country this week. In New York City, 34-year-old Zohran Mamdani became the city’s first Muslim mayor after defeating Trump-backed independent Andrew Cuomo in a race defined by record youth turnout. In Virginia, Abigail Spanberger secured the governorship with a decisive lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, while Mikie Sherrill prevailed in New Jersey following a campaign centered on affordability and public safety. Meanwhile, California voters passed Proposition 50, a redistricting measure championed by Governor Gavin Newsom that could flip several Republican-held congressional seats. Those results were buoyed in part by surging support from young voters and Hispanic voters, who shifted toward the right in 2024 after historically leaning toward the Democrats. CNN exit polls found that 70 percent of voters aged 18 to 29 backed Spanberger in Virginia, while 68 percent supported Sherrill in New Jersey. In New York City, Mamdani won overwhelming support from the youngest voters, earning 78 percent of their votes. In California, 79 percent of voters under 30 cast ballots in favor of Proposition 50. Meanwhile, 67 percent of Latinos supported Spanberger, and 68 percent supported Sherrill, while 71 percent supported Proposition 50. In New York, Mamdani's support among Hispanics was comparatively lower at 52 percent. Amid those results, former White House adviser Steve Bannon took to social media to warn of the danger ahead for the Republicans. “The midterms start tonight, and the warning signs are flashing,” he wrote on X. However, YouGov's tracker shows the Democrats with only a marginal lead over the Republicans in voting intention for the 2026 midterms. The survey shows that on a generic ballot, 43 percent would choose a Democratic candidate, while 41 percent would choose a Republican candidate. What Happens Next The midterms are set to take place in November 2026.
