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Republicans could win the New York gubernatorial office for the first time in decades, according to a new poll that found GOP Representative Elise Stefanik with a lead over Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul and Lieutenant Governor Anthony Delgado. Newsweek reached out to Hochul’s and Delgado’s campaigns for comment via email. Why It Matters New York is viewed as a reliably Democratic state. The liberal bastion of New York City, as well as other areas like Albany, Buffalo and Rochester, have kept it in the blue column for decades in most federal races. But Republicans have made some inroads with some Empire State voters recently. Former Vice President Kamala Harris received less than 56 percent of the vote in New York last year, the weakest performance for a Democrat in decades. Next year’s gubernatorial race will be a key test of whether that was a potential signal that the state could be shifting toward competitiveness over the long run. What To Know Hochul, who won her election in 2022 by a smaller-than-expected margin, is running for reelection next November. She is facing a primary challenge from Delgado, though early polling suggests she has an advantage among Democratic voters. On the Republican side, Stefanik, who represents a northern New York congressional district, is considered a potential candidate. She has staked out a more moderate position on some issues throughout her career, but has also remained a steadfast supporter of President Donald Trump. She would be viewed as a top recruit for Republicans hoping to make the race competitive. A new poll released Tuesday by the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, found Stefanik leading Hochul by one point (43 percent to 42 percent) and Delgado by six points (43 percent to 37 percent). The poll surveyed 600 New York City voters and 300 New York State voters, weighted to account for population, from October 22 to October 26, 2025. It had a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points. Representative Elise Stefanik speaks at the Republican National Convention on July 16, 2024, in Milwaukee. Other polling has shown Hochul with a lead, but some surveys have suggested it could be a close race. A Siena College poll of 802 likely voters from September 8 to September 10, 2025, showed Hochul up by 25 points (52 percent to 27 percent), with 17 percent undecided. It had a margin of error of ±4.2 percentage points. A GrayHouse poll found Hochul leading Stefanik by five points on an initial ballot (48 percent to 43 percent), but Stefanik led on an informed ballot (46.4 percent to 45.9 percent). It surveyed 1,2550 New York likely voters from September 20 to September 26, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points. Democrats have controlled the New York governorship for decades. Governor George Pataki was the last Republican to hold the office, serving from 1995 to 2006. What People Are Saying Bernadette Breslin, a spokesperson for Stefanik, wrote in a press release: “This marks the first time in decades that any potential Republican gubernatorial candidate (and in this case, the likely nominee) is polling ahead of a Democrat incumbent Governor, even before any official announcement. “In a decision that she will come to regret, Kathy Hochul lives up to her title as the Worst Governor in America when she chose to bend the knee and put New Yorkers LAST by desperately endorsing the Defund the Police, tax hiking, raging Antisemite Socialist Zohran Mamdani who will destroy New York.” Journalist Alex Gault wrote on X: “The Manhattan Institute, which crafted this poll, is a known conservative thinktank. Notable that while two Republican-linked orgs show Stefanik ahead, the really independent pollster SCRI shows a completely different reality.” What Happens Next Forecasters still give Hochul an advantage—both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Likely Democratic. Stefanik has not formally said she plans to run. WPTZ, an NBC affiliate servicing the Burlington, Vermont–Plattsburgh, New York area, reported that she will announce her plans after the November elections.
