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The U.S. economy will lose between $7 billion and $14 billion due to the federal government shutdown, according to a new report released Wednesday by Congress’s nonpartisan bookkeeper. Federal workers missing paychecks and the interruption of food benefits for low-income Americans are expected to temporarily lower gross domestic product by 1 to 2 percentage points in the fourth quarter of 2025, the Congressional Budget Office reported. Output is expected to spring back once the government reopens and services resume, reversing most of the economic slowdown. But the hours lost by furloughed federal workers would permanently impact real GDP - an effect that would get worse the longer the shutdown drags on. “In CBO’s assessment, the shutdown will delay federal spending and have a negative effect on the economy that will mostly, but not entirely, reverse once the shutdown ends,” CBO director Phillip Swagel wrote in a letter to House Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), who requested the analysis. If Congress agreed to reopen the government this week, the economy would lose $7 billion by the end of 2026 compared to if there had not been a shutdown, according to CBO. If the shutdown ends after six weeks - which would be around Nov. 12 - the economy would permanently lose $11 billion in GDP by the end of 2026. That loss would grow to $14 billion if the shutdown lasts until the end of November. “Democrats are playing politics, and the American people are paying the price,” Arrington said in a statement. “ … For hardworking families that means higher unemployment, lower wages, and less money in their pockets.” The federal government shut down on Oct. 1 when Congress failed to pass a temporary funding measure. Democrats have insisted that Republicans agree to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies that expire at the end of the year in exchange for their votes to fund the government; Republicans have said they won’t negotiate on the ACA until the government is reopened. “This CBO report makes clear the damage Republicans are causing by shutting down the government instead of working with Democrats to help families afford their health care,” House Budget Committee ranking Democrat Brendan Boyle (Pennsylvania) said in a statement. “Speaker Johnson should bring his members back from their extended vacation and work with Democrats on a bipartisan bill that reopens the government and protects Americans’ health care.” Around 750,000 federal workers have been temporarily furloughed as a result of the funding impasse. Others are working without pay. President Donald Trump’s administration has moved to ensure some workers - including active-duty military, law enforcement agents, and Immigrations and Customs Enforcement deportation officers - received their most recent paycheck. But the shutdown will soon become more painful for those who aren’t federal employees: SNAP, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program commonly known as food stamps, is set to run out of funding on Saturday. The Agriculture Department has said it cannot use $5.5 billion in contingency funds to keep the program running, which means SNAP benefits will temporarily halt in states that cannot make up the difference. (c) 2025 , The Washington Post · Riley Beggin · BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS, NATIONAL, CONGRESS, WHITEHOUSE · Oct 29, 2025 - 3:00 PM
