Copyright dailyrecord
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is in line to become the largest opposition party at Holyrood, a new poll has found . The snapshot found Reform on course to beat Scottish Labour into second place. The Survation poll comes days after Labour’s drubbing in the Caerphilly by-election in Wales, where Keir Starmer’s party was pushed into third behind Plaid Cymru and Reform . Commissioned by the IPPR think tank, the poll showed the SNP on 34% of the constituency vote, Reform on 22%, Labour on 18%, the Tories on 10% and the Lib Dems on 8%. On the regional list vote, the SNP came first on 29%, Reform was in second on 20%, Labour polled 17%, the Tories 12% and the Lib Dems and Greens on 10%. Polling guru Mark Diffley estimated that such a result would give John Swinney’s party 55 seats, Reform 22, Labour 19, the Tories 12, the Greens 10 and the Lib Dems 11. If this result came to pass in May, it would amount to Labour’s worst result in the history of devolution and spark Anas Sarwar’s resignation as leader. However, the numbers also provide comfort for supporters of the UK. Swinney has said the SNP needs to win an outright majority of MSPs to secure a mandate for indyref2, but winning 55 seats would see him fall short by ten. Diffley told the Herald: “This is the first poll in Scotland to show Reform UK in second place on both the constituency and regional list votes. It consolidates the trend we have seen over the past year, with the party averaging around 20% support and now edging ahead at 22%. “They seem to be pushing Labour further back into third place, which is a clear problem for Labour.” It comes after the Record reported over the weekend that senior Scottish Labour figures believe Starmer will quit as PM if the Holyrood election is lost. Sources believe the collective loss of elections in Scotland, Wales and England in May - where some councils will be elected - will topple him. To sign up to the Daily R ecord Politics newsletter, click here
