Remarkably, improbably, the Cincinnati Reds are in the driver’s seat.
Entering Saturday, with only two games left on the schedule, the Reds were in possession of the third and final National League wild-card spot, despite a record of 82-78. If they win their last two games, they’d tie for the worst record to clinch a playoff spot since the format expanded three years ago.
The Reds got control of their destiny thanks to a 3-1 win over the first-place Milwaukee Brewers on Friday, combined with a 6-2 loss by the New York Mets (also 82-78) to the Miami Marlins. Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks (82-80) were eliminated, meaning it’s down to only the Reds and Mets for that final playoff bid.
Reds’ magic number: two
The math at this point is pretty simple. The Reds need to match or exceed whatever the Mets do this weekend, and they’ll be back in the dance for the first time since the wacky 2020 season, when they secured a playoff spot with a regular-season record of 31-29.
That means the Reds’ magic number is two. Either they have to win two, or they need a win and one Mets loss, or they need two Mets losses if they drop both games to the Brewers.
It’s no foregone conclusion, certainly, that the Reds can take care of business. Sure, the Brewers (96-64) have a playoff spot locked up, but entering Saturday, they still hadn’t clinched home-field advantage in the playoffs, which it would take them just one more win to achieve.
Plus, after sending second-year man Robert Gasser to the hill on Saturday, the Brewers are slated to start ace Freddy Peralta on Sunday, though it’s expected to be a shorter start than usual. The Reds are scheduled to counter with All-Star lefty Andrew Abbott on Saturday and righty Brady Singer on Sunday.
It’s been a total collapse for New York, which once held the best record in baseball at 45-24. That was mid-June, so it’s been a long, painful slog as the Mets have tried to hang on.
Fangraphs gave the Reds a 55.2% chance of grabbing that final wild-card spot entering Saturday, with the Mets holding the remaining 44.8%.
