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By Neil Hartnell Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net Realtors say there is “nothing to panic about” after it was suggested the Bahamian market “showed signs of slowing” with 2025 third quarter home listings down for New Providence, Abaco and Exuma. Morley Realty’s market report for the three months to end-September 2025, drawing on data provided by the Bahamas Real Estate Association’s (BREA) Multiple Listing System (MLS), which is thought to capture at least 60 percent of transaction activity, said the period was highlighted by reduced inventory and “more uneven sales activity” across the five major island markets. “In the 2025 third quarter, the Bahamian real estate market showed signs of slowing with fewer properties being listed and sales activity becoming more uneven across the islands,” Morley Realty said of real estate sales activity. “Many sellers held back this quarter, creating tighter supply overall. “Abaco homes saw the steepest decline in new listings, down nearly 70 percent compared to last quarter, while Exuma homes also slipped. Land supply fell in most regions as well, particularly in New Providence and Grand Bahama, though Eleuthera was a rare exception, with slightly more new land listings hitting the market.” Assessing the market’s outlook for the year’s last few months and heading into 2026, Morley Realty added: “Overall, the 2025 third quarter highlighted a market with fewer options for buyers and growing selectivity in purchasing decisions. “Eleuthera and Abaco homes led the way with strong performance, while land markets were far more volatile, swinging between strong pricing power and sharp slowdowns. As the year closes, both buyers and sellers will need to navigate a market where limited supply, longer selling times in certain areas, and shifting price trends are all key factors.” Any slowdown in real estate activity would have far-reaching consequences for the Bahamian economy and multiple industries that depend on the housing market, including the likes of contractors, realtors, attorneys, landscapers, home furniture and fixtures retailers and other entities that supply products and services for the home. And then there is the Government with its VAT levied on the transaction purchase price. The Public Treasury has enjoyed the post-COVID boom in real estate sales with VAT on such transactions projected to hit around $300m annually, while the Government has frequently asserted that it is missing out on up to $100m per annum in revenue from such activities due to under-reporting and other forms of evasion/avoidance. David Morley, Morley Realty's broker/owner, was said to be off-island and unable to comment on the report before press time. However, other realtors spoken to by Tribune Business argued there is no cause for alarm as the 2025 third quarter - the slowest period in the tourism cycle - also tends to be the quietest time for real estate activity due to it coinciding with hurricane season and children returning to school in key source markets. Mike Lightbourn, Coldwell Banker Lightbourn Realty’s principal, told Tribune Business of market activity: “This is the slower part of the year, but things are still happening. So far, so good.” He added of Morley Realty’s findings: “That’s fair comment, but it’s nothing to panic about. You get the conventional slowdown this time of year. Anyway, we shall see.” Matt Sweeting, REMAX Bahamas managing broker, said that - while there been “softening” in the high-end international market - the domestic Bahamian segment valued at $1m or less remains robust with “record low days on the market” and offer prices in bidding wars. “Business is doing good,” he told this newspaper. “I’m seeing record low days on the market, and over the last 14-21 days more specifically, I have been involved with three bidding wars and had three record-breaking offers slightly upwards of $100,000 over market value in a prominent gated community. “A number of properties we’ve engaged our clients with, exposed to clients, even before they’ve listed on the market the property has gone. The properties are getting full price offers.” Mr Sweeting added: “I’ve been seeing a softening in the high-end luxury market, but then the local market - the $1m and under in communities that cater to the local demographic - we’ve seen properties not last on the market long. “This level of interest, low days on the market, record-breaking sales will continue in 2026 undoubtedly. There’s no indication of softness on that end.” Morley Realty, in its 2025 third quarter report, said MLS data showed listings of New Providence homes were down 10.2 percent compared to the same period in 2024 and by 23.8 percent when measured against the 2025 second quarter. Contracted home sales, where purchase agreements have been reached but the deal has yet to close, were down 1 percent and 5.7 percent when benchmarked against the year-before third quarter and 2025’s second quarter, respectively. Completed New Providence home sales, while up 9.1 percent on 2025 second quarter figures, fell by 14.3 percent year-over-year. As for vacant New Providence land, new listings dropped by 38.3 percent year-over-year and by 12 percent compared to the 2025 second quarter. Contracted sales for the three months to end-September 2025 were flat year-over-year, but off by 27 percent against the 2025 second quarter, while completed land sales fell by 32.5 percent year-over-year. They were also down 20.6 percent on the 2025 second quarter. “Sales activity told a mixed story,” Morley Realty said of the 2025 third quarter. “Eleuthera homes were the standout, attracting stronger buyer demand. Contracts jumped 80 percent compared to last year, and completed sales rose more than 60 percent. “Abaco homes also performed well, with closings rising by a third. In contrast, Grand Bahama homes saw a sharp decline in completed sales, and most land markets slowed noticeably. Eleuthera and Exuma land, in particular, both posted significant quarterly declines in sales. “Prices moved in different directions depending on the island. Abaco and Eleuthera homes rebounded strongly, with average prices up 57 percent and 36 percent quarter-over-quarter, while Exuma homes gave back much of their earlier gains, falling more than 35 percent,” Morley Realty added. “Land prices remained highly unpredictable. Abaco surged as demand pushed averages higher, while Exuma and New Providence both weakened further. Eleuthera’s average land price slipped, even though individual sales still closed at strong levels. “How long it took properties to sell also varied widely. Exuma homes took the longest to close at an average of 431 days, well over a year, while Abaco homes stretched to about 107 days. Eleuthera, by contrast, remained very efficient, with homes selling in just 80 days on average, while Grand Bahama held steady around 136 days. Land sales were slower overall, ranging from just over 100 days in Grand Bahama to almost 200 days in Eleuthera,” it added. “Sellers generally continued to achieve strong results compared to their asking prices, showing that buyers are still willing to pay close to list levels when the right property comes up. Abaco, Exuma, Eleuthera and New Providence homes all closed at or above 91 percent of asking prices. In the land segment, results were more extreme: Exuma land averaged nearly 96 percent, Eleuthera spiked to 93.1 percent, while Grand Bahama lagged at just 83 percent.”
