RBA subtly hoses down rate cut expectations
RBA subtly hoses down rate cut expectations
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RBA subtly hoses down rate cut expectations

David Taylor 🕒︎ 2025-10-28

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RBA subtly hoses down rate cut expectations

This week sees the release of crucial data on the economy. The Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish third-quarter inflation data on Wednesday. Earlier this month, the ABS released figures showing the unemployment rate rose to 4.5 per cent in September. RBA governor Michele Bullock told a gathering in Sydney that unemployment was a "little bit too high" and inflation was also a "little bit too high". "[The unemployment rate has] drifted up a bit, but it's not a huge amount out [of where we thought it would be]," Ms Bullock said. In what some analysts might view as a nod to keeping interest rates on hold next week, Ms Bullock said: "I don't want to leap at a single number" in reference to the unemployment rate. RBA staff afraid to speak up In a wide-ranging fireside chat, the Reserve Bank governor covered a number of topics, speaking to a room of economists and business representatives. On the Reserve Bank review, Ms Bullock conceded it exposed a culture in the bank where staff were afraid to speak up. The review was designed to ensure that Australia's monetary policy arrangements and the operations of the Reserve Bank continued to support strong macroeconomic outcomes for Australia in a complex and continuously evolving landscape. "We've put a lot of effort into [establishing] an open and dynamic culture," she said. Monetary policy considerations Ms Bullock has also been globe-trotting to speak with her counterparts overseas. Most central banks seem pretty comfortable that inflation is coming back down. But, she said "services inflation" still appeared too sticky. This led her into a discussion about why share markets continued to push higher in the face of economic challenges. Financial markets confusion Ms Bullock told the Sydney gathering that her overseas counterparts were "flummoxed" by how "sanguine" or optimistic the financial markets had become. "Could it all end up very badly?" she questioned, pondering whether the financial markets could turn negative. "Some people are worried that might all end in tears," she conceded. That's a reference to wide financial and economic dislocation that could hurt economies across the world.

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