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Week 9's edition of Thursday Nigh Football is a massive game. The Dolphins look to continue their Week 8 underdog upset production after taking down the Falcons as massive road underdogs. The Ravens, meanwhile, are looking to kickstart a division title and playoff run after Lamar Jackson spent a long time on the sidelines. We've got a monster total here, and while the Under might be a good look, there's plenty of opportunities to get home with NFL player props. Let's find some winners. Click here to bet on Vikings vs. Chargers at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets if their first bet wins, along with three months of NBA League Pass: If you're new to NFL betting or need a refresher, make sure to check out our NFL betting guide with the season underway. Also make sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model's forecast for the entire Ravens vs. Dolphins game. Top straight bet (spread, money line or total) Ravens -7.5 vs. Dolphins There are few things I like less than yapping on about being careful backing favorites with an inflated spread and then immediately taking a touchdown-plus road favorite. But I'm going to do it anyway! We've got a game here with a lot of unknowns. Did the Dolphins magically figure out how to stop the run? Or did the Dolphins defense magically just get good? Probably not -- I think we can pin the Falcons' issues on their own injuries to Michael Penix, Jr. and Drake London in that almost unfathomable Week 8 blowout loss to Miami. What about the Ravens? Is Lamar Jackson "100%," as has been bandied about this week? It's hard to believe considering the games they played last week with the injury report and the team operating on a short week now. But Jackson will be out there and, frankly, things couldn't have gone better for the Ravens considering the he was absent for a full month. They're still the favorites (around -110) to win the division, despite sitting at 2-5. And Derrick Henry has yet to pop off for a big-time explosion game. It feels like it's lurking on a short week against a team that gave up 200+ yards to Rico Dowdle, 120+ yards to Kimani Vidal and three touchdowns to Quinshon Judkins the three weeks prior. Henry loves to run wild in primetime and with Jackson back -- along with a lot of defensive pieces -- I think the Ravens come out energized. Miami will put up a scripted fight early and hang around for the first half, but I see Henry and the Ravens rushing attack wearing on the Dolphins and breaking off a few big plays to cover this gaudy number. You can bet on the Ravens to cover the spread at BetMGM, where new users get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if their first bet doesn't win: Ravens vs. Dolphins player props Derrick Henry Over 89.5 rushing yards As I predicted when I put this in on SportsLine early in the week, this number is starting to climb on Thursday (it's creeped into the 90s at some sportsbooks). I'd guess it's in the mid 90s by kickoff on Thursday night, which might not seem like a lot, but every yard counts when we're talking player props. Henry has just two games over 100 yards this season and just a single explosion game (169 yards, Week 1 vs. the Bills) on his resume. But there couldn't be a better time for a blow up spot than Thursday night against the league's worst run defense. As noted above, Bijan Robinson did very little against Miami last week, but it was probably more about the Falcons choosing not to run rather than the Dolphins shutting down the run. On a short week, the Ravens will run the ball. And Henry should see some big play opportunities against a run defense that's not just leaky but prone to giving up explosive plays. I expect him to easily clear 100 yards. Lamar Jackson Under 6.5 rush attempts A little juicy here, because the market is catching up to the general -- and obvious -- sentiment for how the Ravens will approach this game, Jackson's first in a month. Essentially, the Ravens are going to prefer to win with the run game, quick hitters from the pocket, some play action and defense. They will not want to run Jackson if they can help it, especially knowing that if they can win without using his legs, they'll give him another 10 days to recover before their next game. In short, Jackson should have very few, if any, designed runs in this game. And given the Dolphins' struggles on defense this year, it stands to reason he won't have to scramble much. If Baltimore can get a lead, he might not run until he's taking knees. De'Von Achane Over 32.5 receiving yards Achane is seeing an outrageous number of targets from Tua Tagovailoa over the last month, getting the ball thrown his way 25 times over the last four games. He's turned that into 18 catches for 92 total yards over that stretch, which has me eyeballing his receiving props here. I like the receiving yards in particular. With his skillset and explosive playmaking, Achane can get there on a single catch. The Over on the receptions prop is pretty juicy though, so I wouldn't be opposed to taking it either, especially if we want to lean into the idea the Dolphins will be throwing a lot in the second half and Tagovailoa will be dumping the ball off to Achane under pressure. TNF anytime touchdown scorer props Jaylen Waddle +130 The offense on Thursday should be heavily concentrated through Achane and Henry, so it's no surprise to see their ATD numbers way out of whack. We can toss either in a parlay and feel fine, but if we want a single shot look at someone to score, Waddle's a pretty good look. Waddle also fits our projected game script: he can get into the end zone via a scripted drive early in the game, or perhaps by a late score when the Dolphins are trailing and are forced to throw more. Over the last four games, Waddle has 27 targets and a pair of scores as well as eight red zone targets on the year and three targets inside the 10. With Tyreek Hill out, Waddle is seeing plenty of usage. Keaton Mitchell +750 Let's lean into a full-blown game script setup here and look to a longshot touchdown scorer in Mitchell. If the Ravens get a big lead, Mitchell should see a few extra carries in this game. Anytime he touches it, Mitchell's a threat to score, and given the Dolphins' struggles in run defense, Mitchell is very live for a house call. We can get this either by Mitchell running more in the fourth quarter or simply by him popping one as a change of pace back early in the game, or even with some designed big plays coming his way.
