Back to back weeks for the NFC West in the Amazon Thursday slot, and yet another monster matchup — the Rams are 3-1 after a strong start to the season and find themselves tied atop the division with the Seahawks and their Week 5 opponent, the 49ers, who were undefeated but just lost a confounding home game to the Jaguars. Football stays weird!
The 2-2 Cardinals draw the Titans this week, which means we could easily see every one of these teams above .500. This is a massive game, especially with all of the injuries the 49ers are dealing with.
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Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall and Juaun Jennings were all ruled out on Wednesday by the 49ers, which caused this line to steam up pretty good. Brandon Aiyuk isn’t set to be back any time soon, George Kittle remains out and Nick Bosa is done for the year. It’s a war of attrition in San Francisco right now.
It is a mess in San Francisco. This is basically the Rams vs. Christian McCaffrey at this point, so be warned, the player props can be a little slow just in terms of being posted, but that also means we might be able to find more of an edge thanks to confusion about where the ball is going to go on the San Francisco side of things.
If you’re new to NFL betting or need a refresher, make sure to check out our NFL betting guide with the season underway. Also make sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model’s forecast for the entire 49ers-Rams game.
Top straight bet (spread, money line or total)
Rams -7
This line has jumped up pretty quick in the last 24-48 hours, moving across the key number of seven after sitting at -5.5 for a while following an opening number of Rams -3. It really started to move around practice time and popped across a key number when it became clear Purdy wouldn’t play.
Laying the full touchdown isn’t something I’m super inclined to do, as it’s the worst of the number, but there are a couple of reasons I’m pretty on board with the Rams winning comfortably. For starters, the Rams might just be the best team in football. No, seriously!
They have the best YPP differential in the NFL, and their only loss of the season was a fluky end to the Eagles game in which they dominated and looked like they’d win handily for most of the game. For the 49ers, everything has gone wrong from an injury perspective this year, and it’s kind of culminating this week.
Bosa is done for the year, and after generating 10+ pressures in every single game so far this season, the 49ers managed just five last week. Kittle still isn’t back, and both Pearsall and Jennings are out. The Niners offense might be a hot mess against an elite defense.
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Rams vs. 49ers player props
Kyren Williams Over 9.5 receiving yards
This is a super low number, and it’s kind of surprising considering Williams has cleared this line in each of his last three games, getting well into the double-digit yardage for receiving on minimal targets and catches in every week except Week 1. There’s obviously danger here if the Rams, as nearly a touchdown favorite, get up big early via the passing attack and then just salt things away with the run game while the 49ers aren’t able to muster much on offense. But an early bootleg from Matthew Stafford to Williams out of the backfield is one of the McVay staples, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Rams script it out early.
Christian McCaffrey Over 6.5 receptions (+120)
With Kendrick Bourne and DeMarcus Robinson serving as the top two receivers for the 49ers, there’s a really good chance CMC sees another game similar to two weeks ago when he was peppered with a ridiculous 16 targets, bringing in 10 catches in total. That followed on a 10-target, six-catch game against the Saints, as it seems A, Kyle Shanahan wants to make life easy for Mac Jones, and B, Jones wisely likes to get the ball to CMC.
This moved pretty quickly off of 5.5 (-149) up to 6.5, which makes complete sense. I’m honestly fine laying the larger number for plus money. CMC is going to have to be heavily, heavily involved in this game if the Niners want any chance of winning.
Puka Nakua Over 3.5 rush yards
Short week, massive game, division opponent … I expect McVay to pull all the tricks out of the bag early in this game to get a lead and turn things over to his run game in the second half if it all possible. And this isn’t even a crazy situation: Nacua runs the ball regularly. He had a carry in each of the Rams’ first three games before not having one against Indy last week. We’re likely getting just a single look at this, but one rush is all we need to clear this miniscule number.
Jake Tonges Over 22.5 receiving yards (-110)
We’ve already targeted CMC’s receptions, and while I don’t want to be too exposed to the Jones-led 49ers passing offense, this line is way too low for Tonges, who is the primary receiving tight end with Kittle still out. It’s up to the high 20’s elsewhere in the market already, and as noted, someone has to catch the ball with Jones lined at 30+ pass attempts.
TNF anytime touchdown scorer props
Davante Adams +120
Adams has made a career out of lighting up the 49ers — the Palo Alto native has seven career touchdowns in five games against San Francisco and averages 126 yards per game in those contests as well. And then this offseason, the 49ers decided to, according to Adams, offer him a “wholesale” price if he was interested in joining them, so he told his agents not to speak to the Niners. Do you think the local kid who’s always blown up against San Francisco might be even more motivated to put up numbers in a pretty good matchup with a quarterback playing the way Matthew Stafford is during a massive divisional game? I sure do. It’s absolutely worth sprinkling on two touchdowns as well — I put that up on SportsLine Tuesday morning when it was 10-1 and don’t mind the +800 numbers still floating out there.
Christian McCaffrey -125
The 49ers are in a bad spot, no doubt about it. But I’m not sure all the injuries — or even Jones’ presence under center — is necessarily bad for the chances that CMC gets in the end zone. His price is heavily discounted because of the Rams’ elite defense and the various issues the 49ers are facing from a personnel standpoint, but he’s going to be the gameplan in terms of offensive usage and should see plenty of checkdowns as well as red-zone carries. The 49ers are banged up, but they won’t be blanked.