Raila Odinga: Kenya staring at an uncertain political future after ex-PM's death
Raila Odinga: Kenya staring at an uncertain political future after ex-PM's death
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Raila Odinga: Kenya staring at an uncertain political future after ex-PM's death

Wycliffe Muia 🕒︎ 2025-10-21

Copyright bbc

Raila Odinga: Kenya staring at an uncertain political future after ex-PM's death

For years, the firebrand politician emerged as a staunch campaigner and defender of multi-party democracy and a towering figure who kept the country's politics competitive and national discourse vibrant. Analysts say his absence leaves a vacuum not only within the opposition, but also within President William Ruto's government - which, like administrations before it, relied on his influence to help steady the ship amid growing public discontent. "Without Raila, Kenya will be a radically different country. It's entirely possible that the vacuum he leaves will create a mass movement capable of successfully demanding change," wrote Salim Lone, a long-time confidante and spokesman for Odinga. As his body was finally lowered into the ground, it became unmistakably clear that Kenya was witnessing the closing of an entire chapter in the story of the country's democratic struggle. "In his passing, our nation, our continent, and our world have lost a titan of conscience, a visionary of uncommon resolve, and defender of the defenceless whose legacy will illuminate Kenya's democratic path for all time," said Ruto, while eulogising Odinga. His widow Idah said that when she got married to Odinga 52 years ago, she never knew she was marrying a political engineer. Some, like veteran politician and former political detainee Koigi wa Wamwere, believe that Kenya could not afford to lose Odinga at such a critical moment. "This was not the time for Raila to die. We haven't discussed with him on whether the tactics that we're using in fighting oppression and the problems that continue to plague the country are the best for us to apply," Mr Wamwere said in an interview with local TV. In the absence of a formidable national figure like Odinga and an unsteady opposition, some fear a heavy-handed state response to dissent. "The political order Raila helped shape is being tested. The next two years will likely be filled with tumult: leadership races, coalition fracturing, emotional politics, realignments around power and identity," lawyer Chris Omore told a local newspaper. Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party is already in turmoil, with internal factions divided over whether to support Ruto's re-election bid in the 2027 general election. Last year, Ruto reached out to Odinga for a political deal that saw opposition figures appointed to the cabinet - in what is now known as a "broad-based" government. The move was seen by many as Ruto's attempt to solidify his hold on power amid increasing discontent with his administration over its perceived failure to improve the lives of poor people, while raising taxes heavily. Ruto has committed to ensure that ODM "will either form the government or be part of the government" in 2027. Days before his death, Odinga had hinted at the possibility of ODM fielding its own presidential candidate in the polls. A decision by ODM to go it alone could pose a significant challenge to Ruto, whose re-election prospects are uncertain amid rising public discontent fuelled by the cost-of-living crisis. Last year, Ruto was forced to backtrack on plans to raise taxes after violent street protests erupted. His popularity has also taken a significant hit following last year's impeachment of his former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, a key political figure from the vote-rich Mount Kenya region. Other analysts believe that Odinga's death presents Kenya with a chance to shift away from personality-driven politics and towards a more institutional, and inclusive democracy. "Other younger people are going to step out to continue with Odinga's political mission and ideological struggle," said Barrack Muluka, a political commentator.

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