Laken Ealy always voted blue. In the 2024 election, she flipped red.
Sitting on her porch on a humid July morning, the Moline resident said her political leanings have changed as she’s aged. Once a staunch Democrat, she voted for former President Barack Obama before leaning independent and eventually turning to the Republican Party.
Ealy’s voting follows the nationwide red wave observed in November 2024, yet stands out in deep blue Rock Island County. Of the 14 Illinois counties that had a majority for Kamala Harris in 2024, Rock Island County had the fifth highest percentage for Harris in the state at 53.9%, behind Cook, Lake, DuPage and Kane counties.
Divided by the Mississippi River, the two sides of the Quad-Cities split in the 2024 election, with Scott County yielding a majority Republican votes for the first time since 1984. Although Rock Island County remained blue, it saw a slight uptick in Republican votes, with some voters following the same path as Ealy.
The Quad-City Times/Dispatch Argus looked at voting trends over the past four presidential elections and found many voters on both sides of the Mississippi River shifting Republican.
Democrats lost ground in both Scott and Rock Island counties while Republicans gained voters. Scott County turned red at a more accelerated rate. Republican votes grew by 20% from 2012 to 2024 in Scott County and by 12% in Rock Island County.
In Quad-Cities, 26 blue precincts turned red since 2012
In 2012, only 15 of Rock Island County’s 120 precincts went Republican. That number grew to 26 precincts for the Republican candidate in 2024. Scott County’s precincts that voted Republican grew from 20 in 2012 to 35 in 2024. Republicans gained five precincts in Bettendorf and seven in Davenport.
The counties followed their state’s trends, both seeing increased support for Republicans.
In 2024 Trump won Iowa by his largest margin — over 13 percentage points. All 99 counties swung right, giving Trump 56% of the ballots and securing him the state’s six electoral votes.
The president also won Iowa’s Republican caucuses by 30 percentage points, the biggest win the contest has seen.
Rock Island County’s dip in Democrats was observed statewide. A roughly 3% bump in Republican votes between 2020 and 2024 lightly loosened Democrats’ stronghold on Illinois.
What caused the move to the right?
From her front porch on 10th Avenue, Ealy explained why she went against the blue tide in her county.
The focus of the Democratic party, she said, was turning in a different direction. As a mother of four, her breaking point was the party’s stance on education.
“I felt like a lot of the agendas the left were focused on really seemed to trickle down negatively into the school for my kids,” she said.
There was less focus on education and more emphasis on social issues during the Biden administration, she said. Classroom discussions that made her and her husband uncomfortable were rising, and the kids’ grades were falling.
The Ealys decided they needed change — opting to homeschool their kids and switch political parties.
“We like more traditional things and wanted things to move a little slower than they were,” she said. “We just felt like maybe the world wasn’t ready for the amount of change that the Democratic party wanted to bring on right away.”
Ealy does not like Trump’s personality — in fact it’s her least favorite part about the president — however, she cast her ballot for the Republican because of his policies and promises.
“We never really were fans of Donald Trump,” she said. “But I just felt like this time around he was a better choice.”
The Ealy’s decision to vote red in a blue county found an echo across the river, where Scott County’s Republican leanings became the majority.
Trump localized national issues such as immigration
Former Scott County Republican Party Chair Jeanita McNulty credits record high fundraising, new voter outreach strategies, and Republican momentum from the 2022 midterms for Trump’s success in the county. McNulty served as county party chair during the 2024 election.
Trump won by localizing national issues, McNulty said, such as the economy and immigration.
“People were afraid of what was going on in our country,” she said.
The county didn’t just go red for Trump, but also shifted politically for local positions as well. Held by Democrats for 40 years, the county attorney and auditor’s office flipped to Republican in 2022. This momentum, backed by increased funds, ushered in Scott County’s red wave, McNulty said.
The flip mimicked when Scott County swung for Ronald Reagan 40 years ago. McNulty said Trump and Reagan have much in common, including their work to cut taxes.
People find Trump relatable, as they did Reagan, McNulty said.
“I think (Trump’s) supporters are diehards, they’re there for him,” she said. “People were, in some ways, that way with Reagan.”
Iowa loses first-in-the-nation Democrat caucus
Iowa Democrats losing their first-in-the-nation caucus status likely impacted election results in the state, Scott County political leaders said.
The Democratic National Committee voted to remove Iowa from the early window of presidential nominating states in 2023.
The opportunity to sit down with candidates is a part of what makes Iowa so special, McNulty said. Without the Iowa Democratic caucus, blue candidates may have lacked the chance to connect with the state’s voting bloc.
In 2024, Scott County had more registered Republicans than Democrats for the first time, McNulty said.
Kay Pence, Scott County Democratic Party Chair, said she suspects many Iowans switched their registration so they could participate in caucus night. She characterized the Republican flip as a one-time realignment rather than a long-term political trend.
“From the very beginning, Iowans lost their caucuses,” Pence said. “There were people that weren’t thrilled that our only choice was President Biden, and then the way the process turned out.”
Biden dropped out of the race in late July, 2024. Former Vice President Kamala Harris ran the shortest presidential campaign in U.S. history, with only 107 days to launch her platform and reach voters.
With Democrat votes in Scott County declining 9.4% between 2020 and 2024, Biden landed more votes in his bid for the Oval Office than Harris’ bid four years later.
Democrats did better down the ticket
Although Scott County swung heavily for Trump, voters split the presidential and congressional ticket, also favoring Democratic congressional candidate Christina Bohannan.
Bohannan secured Scott County with 51% of the vote to Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ 48.73%, according to county election results.
Pence said this split-ticket voting wasn’t necessarily surprising, considering Iowans voted for change and many were unhappy with former President Joe Biden.
“These are not hardcore party-line voters,” Pence said. “They vote for change at the top of the ticket and they voted with their heart with Christina.”
Republicans were successful in Iowa, she said, because Iowans are being left behind economically.
Iowa drops to 49th in GDP growth
The state’s GDP — a measurement of total economic activity — shrunk 6.1% in the first quarter of 2025, according to a report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. As a result, Iowa dropped to 49th in the country for real GDP growth.
It created a split between the top and the bottom, Pence said. And, strong national messaging from the Republican party resonated with those at the bottom who were ready for change.
Quad-Cities Illinois Dems lose ground, but keep majority
Down ballot Democrats were also favored to Harris in Rock Island County. Illinois Democrat Rep. Eric Sorensen outperformed Harris, pulling in 57.91% of votes, compared to Harris’ 53.28%.
The biggest loss the party saw in Rock Island County was during Hilary Clinton’s campaign in 2016, when 6,759 fewer Democrat votes were cast than in 2012. Democrats rebounded in 2020, but still fell 2,466 votes shy of the totals in 2012.
Political messaging is what ushered in Democratic losses, St. Ambrose political science professor John Hebert said.
This past election presented a fork in the road, asking voters if they wanted to continue on the same trajectory or explore a different version of how the federal government works, Hebert said.
Voting for Harris was a vote for a continuation of the status quo, Hebert said, and voting for Trump was a vote for significant change.
The majority of voters chose the latter.
Trump tends to use negative messaging, painting the opposing party as dangerous or out of touch, Hebert said, yet, he also ties it into a promise that the country can achieve great things if we are willing to correct our course.
“Part of the quite aggressive attitude of the Trump Republicans is that these arrangements haven’t been working out in the people’s favor as a whole, and there needs to be a whole new paradigm of how decisions are made or priorities are chosen at the leading institutions of society,” he said.
Trump’s messaging hit home with Quad-Cities voters, resulting in Democratic losses.
Despite a hit to Democratic numbers, though, Rock Island County stayed blue.
“There were a lot of folks that remembered what the first term for President Trump was like, and there was a significant energy to do their part to prevent a second term,” Illinois Sen. Mike Halpin said.
Halpin, who serves as the chair of the Rock Island County Democrats, says the majority of voters on his side of the Quad-Cities lean Democratic because they are trying to push back against policies gaining national attention, such as book banning and government involvement in the classroom.
Democrats’ hold on Rock Island County is a strong sign of the work the party does, Halpin said. He stressed the county party keeps up communication all year long, and focuses on county, state, and national politics.
“When we do the things we do on a daily basis, all year round, it helps protect us from some of the slippage that we see in other downstate and rural communities,” he said. “(It) also allows us to benefit from the times when Democratic performance is on the upswing and people are energized to vote for Democrats.”
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