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“It remains to be seen how long the EV hangover will last in the US, though we suspect 3Q EV penetration will likely be the highest mark for quite some time,” Barclays analyst Dan Levy said in an Oct. 13 investor note. Rivian last month reported vehicle deliveries of 13,201 vehicles during the third quarter, a 32% increase from a year earlier. Lucid reported deliveries of 4,078 units, up 47% from 2,781 units from the third quarter of 2024. Even with an uptick in sales, both companies are expected to report notable losses, albeit narrowed from a year ago and smaller than the second quarter. Rivian is expected to report an adjusted earnings per share loss of 72 cents on revenue of $1.5 billion, based on average analysts’ estimates compiled by LSEG. That would compare to an adjusted EPS loss of 99 cents on revenue of $874 million a year earlier. When reporting its second-quarter results, Rivian said it expected its adjusted core loss to be between $2 billion and $2.25 billion this year, compared with $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion previously forecast. Analysts also have expressed concerns about Rivian’s previous goal to be profitable on an earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization basis by 2027. Lucid is expected to report a $2.27 adjusted EPS loss for the third quarter, down from $2.80 a year earlier (based on recalculated results following a reverse stock split), on a roughly 90% increase in revenue to $379.1 million, according to LSEG. Narayan and other analysts have largely focused on improvements in the gross profits of the companies as proof of progress. Such results are a key indicator of a business’s profitability before operating expenses, interest, and taxes. "[Investors] will want to see what that gross profit number is in Q3, but they also have a high bar to pass over with where consensus already is,” Narayan said. Rivian is expected to report a gross loss of $39 million during the third quarter, according to average estimates compiled by FactSet. Lucid, meanwhile, is expected to report a $255 million gross loss, according to the estimates. Shares of Rivian are off less than 5% this year, while Lucid’s stock is off roughly 45%, including a 1-for-10 reverse stock split in September.
