Blackhawks forward Connor Bedard laughed when asked Thursday if he’s ready for a full season of getting asked about his contract situation.
“I’ve had three interviews and it’s three-for-three,” Bedard said. “It’s going to be [like that] until it happens. That’s what everyone gets when they haven’t signed.”
Lighthearted comments have been a common theme, in fact, whenever Bedard or Hawks general manager Kyle Davidson have referenced the state of negotiations.
They’ve done a remarkably good job defusing any possible anxiety surrounding his next contract. It’s a stark contrast to the standoffs currently brewing between Kirill Kaprizov and the Wild or between Mason MacTavish and the Ducks.
“[There’s] nothing we’re actively working on right now,” Davidson said Thursday. “I’ll say it: I have zero concern about where that’s headed. He wants to be here for a long time, and we want him for a long time. We’re going to make that happen.”
Added Bedard: “I’ve said a bunch [of times] it hasn’t been ruthless or anything. It’s just a couple chats. It’s all pretty chill. We have a good relationship. It’s not something that keeps you up at night or that I really ever think about.”
Whether an agreement is reached during the season, next spring (after the season) or next summer (after Bedard officially becomes a restricted free agent), it’s clear it will eventually be reached.
Reading between the lines, it also seems like both parties are comfortable with an eight-year deal, the NHL’s maximum length.
The negotiations will boil down to financials and financials only. But those financials won’t necessarily be easy to nail down.
It sounds like Bedard’s agents at Newport Sports Management have set a high initial price for him, and with good reason.
Bedard’s ineligibility for arbitration next summer theoretically reduces his leverage, but everyone knows Bedard is the centerpiece of the Hawks’ future, and that creates plenty of leverage in itself. Everyone knows the Hawks have plenty of cap space available, too.
Fellow pending 2026 RFAs Frank Nazar and Spencer Knight, who became extension-eligible at the same time as Bedard this past July 1, adopted an opposite approach, signing extensions during the past month.
In exchange for getting it out of the way before this season, however, they ended up with relatively team-friendly deals. Nazar’s $6.6 million and Knight’s $5.8 million salary-cap hits could look like bargains in 2026-27 if they break out as stars in 2025-26, which is easy to imagine happening.
As Bedard said Thursday about Nazar, “He’s just going to keep getting better. You get him early and it’s a good spot.”
Bedard, on the other hand, is betting on himself. His value will only increase if his summer training pays off and he erupts this season into the superstar he has long been expected to become.
The NHL’s skyrocketing team salary cap will further benefit him. Ten percent of a $104 million cap (the projection for 2026-27) equates to significantly more money than 10% of an $83.5 million cap (like in 2023-24).
That 10% figure — in other words, $10.4 million per year — probably represents the minimum for Bedard’s next contract.
Devils star Jack Hughes, to whom Bedard profiles similarly, signed a second contract with a cap hit worth 9.7% of the cap the season it went into effect (2022-23), but he signed it before his production really took off.
Oilers star Connor McDavid, conversely, signed a second contract worth a whopping 15.7% of the cap the season it went into effect (2018-19). That probably establishes the maximum for Bedard, considering McDavid was already coming off a 100-point season then.
A Hawks-Bedard compromise might land in the 12%-13% range — in other words, roughly $12.5-$13.5 million. But Bedard’s play this season will influence exactly where the equilibrium point ends up.