Shifting Channel Dynamics: Traditional grocery stores are losing market share to value-forward channels like supercenters (18.6% share, up from 17.1% in 2019) and club stores (13.7% share, up from 11.7% in 2019). This consolidation could streamline transportation routes, but it may also increase pressure on delivery timing.
Value-Added Growth: While value-added produce represents only 8% of volume, it commands higher rates and requires more specialized handling, creating opportunities for carriers with advanced reefer capabilities.
E-commerce Acceleration: Millennials’ digital-first shopping habits are driving online grocery expansion, requiring last-mile cold chain solutions that many carriers are still developing.
Cold Chain Market Heating Up
While traditional freight struggles, the cold chain logistics market showed resilience. The global cold chain market size was estimated at USD 316.34 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1,611.0 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 20.1% from 2025 to 2033.
In the U.S., specifically, the cold chain logistics market size was valued at USD 34.67 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 75.96 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 10.3% from 2025 to 2032. This growth trajectory suggests that reefer carriers may be better positioned for recovery than their dry van counterparts.
The Bright Spot in a Dark Market
As a fleet owner, I have always had a reason to diversify heavily in reefer freight. Even during the freight recession’s worst periods, refrigerated transportation maintained better rate stability. High-volume regional lanes like Yuma to Los Angeles are averaging $3.73 per mile, nearly 50 cents per mile higher than last year, demonstrating the premium that temperature-controlled freight commands.
The reefer market’s resilience stems from several factors:
Essential nature of perishable goods transportation
Weather-driven demand spikes during severe winter conditions
Limited capacity compared to dry van markets
Higher barriers to entry due to equipment costs
Geographic Shifts
The produce report reveals significant implications for transportation, particularly in terms of geography. California and Florida remain major production centers, but consumption patterns are shifting:
Regional Distribution Changes: As club stores and supercenters gain share, fewer but larger shipments may flow to distribution centers rather than individual stores
Seasonal Volatility: Winter storms like the recent Winter Storm Cora can drive reefer tender rejection rates to 36% in affected markets like Buffalo, well above the national average of 15.4%
Cross-Docking Growth: Value-added produce often requires faster turnover, increasing demand for efficient cross-docking facilities
Technology and Efficiency
Millennial consumers’ demand for transparency and sustainability is driving the adoption of technology in cold chain logistics. The report shows that 85% of consumers are interested in innovations such as different textures, improved nutrition, and easier preparation, all of which require precise temperature control and faster delivery times.
2025 will see continued investments in software that can improve visibility on cold chain operations, with real-time monitoring becoming standard rather than optional. For carriers, this means:
Investment in telematics for temperature monitoring
Route optimization software to minimize waste
Blockchain integration for supply chain transparency
Motive is helping carriers capitalize on these opportunities with comprehensive reefer monitoring solutions that address the precise demands of Millennial-driven produce markets. Motive’s Reefer Monitoring platform integrates real-time temperature and humidity tracking with fleet telematics data in a single dashboard, enabling carriers to remotely control reefer units, reduce programming errors, and provide the transparency that modern shippers demand. Fleet managers using the system report saving 5-10 hours per week in productivity while preventing spoilage through 15-minute interval monitoring, the kind of operational efficiency that could help carriers maintain premium rates in a recovering market. With integrations for both Thermo King and Carrier units, plus automated FSMA compliance reporting, the platform positions reefer operators to meet the evolving demands of health-conscious consumers while protecting margins through proactive maintenance and dispute resolution capabilities
The Challenges Ahead
Despite growth opportunities, reefer carriers face significant headwinds:
Rising Operational Costs: ATRI’s annual Operational Costs of Trucking research documented industry cost increases of more than 22% over the past two years, resulting in the highest recorded costs in the research’s 16-year history. Reefer operations face additional costs from:
Higher fuel consumption for refrigeration units
Specialized maintenance requirements
Regulatory compliance for food safety
Capacity Management: The produce report shows consumption peaks around holidays and seasonal events, creating demand volatility that’s challenging for capacity planning.
SONAR data indicates the freight recession may be ending, with several positive indicators for reefer carriers:
Spot Rate Stabilization: National reefer spot rates have found a floor around $2.35-$2.39 per mile
Tender Rejection Rates: Reefer rejection rates have shown more stability than dry van, suggesting a healthier supply-demand balance
Contract vs. Spot Gap: The premium for contract rates ($0.35-$0.40 per mile) provides stability for well-positioned carriers
Strategic Implications for Carriers
For Large Fleets:
Invest in technology for real-time monitoring and route optimization
Develop partnerships with value-added produce processors
Consider dedicated lanes for high-volume Millennial-focused retailers
For Small and Medium Carriers:
Focus on regional niche markets where flexibility provides advantages
Develop expertise in specialized commodities (organic, value-added)
Consider partnerships for technology investments
For Owner-Operators:
Target consistent regional routes rather than spot market volatility
Develop relationships with local/regional produce distributors
Invest in fuel-efficient reefer units to manage operating costs
The Long Game, 2025 and Beyond
The produce industry’s generational shift toward Millennials represents a fundamental realignment that will drive transportation demand for the next decade. As Millennials reach peak earning years and household formation, their preference for fresh, convenient, and sustainably-sourced produce will create new opportunities for innovative carriers.
The convergence of ending freight recession, growing cold chain demand, and changing consumer preferences positions 2025 as a potential inflection point for reefer transportation. Carriers who can adapt to new requirements around technology, sustainability, and customer service will find themselves well-positioned for the recovery.
Key Success Factors Moving Forward:
Technology adoption for visibility and efficiency
Sustainability initiatives to meet Millennial preferences
Flexibility to handle diverse shipping requirements
Financial discipline to weather the remaining market volatility
As the freight recession hopes for an official end and produce consumption patterns continue evolving, refrigerated transportation stands at the intersection of necessity and opportunity. The carriers who recognize and adapt to these changing dynamics will be the ones driving the industry’s next growth cycle.