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Is a a “foregone conclusion?” With the government shutdown plodding along, federal government data, like the report, have been put on hold. That makes reliable economic reports from third-party organizations even more important. One of the most trustworthy is the ADP National Employment Report, which tracks jobs trends in the private sector. The October released on Wednesday was somewhat encouraging, as the private sector added 42,000 jobs last month, which was better than expected. That was better than the 22,000 new jobs anticipated by economists, and a vast improvement over the 32,000 private sector jobs lost in September. Still, 42,000 new jobs are low, down from 221,000 new private sector jobs in October 2024. Three of the previous four months – June, August, and September – have seen negative job growth, and the monthly average is around 47,000 in 2025, compared to 130,000 in 2024. The relatively weak numbers may reinforce the Federal Reserve’s view that a December rate cut is needed, as the labor market and inflation are part of its dual mandate. “For Fed watchers, this ADP report should make it clear that a December rate cut is now in play. We are nearing stall speed in the labor market, and that will get the Fed’s attention,” Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group, said. Where the Jobs Are — and Aren’t The latest ADP jobs report showed that there were just 9,000 new goods-producing jobs and 33,000 new service jobs in October. Trade/transportation/utilities added 47,000 jobs, the most by far, followed by education/health services with 26,000. Financial activities added 11,000 jobs while natural resources/mining produced 7,000 and construction added 5,000. Information and professional business services were hit the hardest, losing 17,000 and 15,000, respectively. Other services shed 13,000 jobs, while leisure/hospitality lost 6,000 and manufacturing shed 3,000 jobs. The West added 40,000 jobs, while the Midwest produced 9,000, and the South added 6,000. The Northeast shed 12,000 jobs last month. Further, large companies added 73,000 jobs while mid0sized companies lost 21,000 and small firms shed 10,000 positions. Pay increases remained at 4.5% for job stayers and 6.7% for job changers in October, the same as the previous month. “Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year,” Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP, said. “Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced.” Foregone Conclusion? The CME FedWatch survey showed that more interest rate traders viewed the job numbers as influencing the Fed not to move on rates in December. Specifically, 64.5% said they anticipate a 25-basis-point cut in December, down from 68.6% yesterday. Still, the majority expects the Fed to lower rates. After the October FOMC meeting, when rates were lowered to the 3.75% to 4.0% range, Fed chair through markets for a bit of a loop when he said a December rate cut was not a “foregone conclusion.” But Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica, expects that it is. “The data in hand during the shutdown suggest the Fed is likely to cut its benchmark rate again in December,” Adams said. “Chair Powell said in the press conference after the decision that a December cut is “not a foregone conclusion.” Considering the latest data releases, that sounds like Walt Disney saying we’ll have to watch to the end to see if the plucky young woman saves her community on a voyage of self-discovery.”
