Copyright kyivpost
Asia has become the stage for a flurry of high-stakes diplomacy – and US President Donald Trump is at the center of it. In the span of a few days, he has deepened US alliances, inked major trade and investment deals, and positioned himself for what could be his most consequential meeting yet: a face-to-face with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump began his regional tour in Tokyo, where he reaffirmed America’s decades-old security partnership with Japan and praised newly-elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for her commitment to boosting defense spending. “Anytime you have a question, any doubt, anything you want, any favors you need, anything I can do to help Japan – we will be there,” he told her, calling the US-Japan relationship “an alliance at the strongest level.” The two leaders capped their talks with the signing of new agreements on trade and critical minerals, formalizing parts of a pact first negotiated under Takaichi’s predecessor. The updated deal includes Japan’s pledge to invest $550 billion in US projects, a move designed to strengthen both economic and strategic cooperation as tensions rise across the Indo-Pacific. Meanwhile, Beijing was making its own moves. In Kuala Lumpur, Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim unveiled an expanded version of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, deepening China’s economic reach across Southeast Asia. The signing came just after Trump’s stop in Malaysia, where he secured US access to rare-earth minerals and won tariff exemptions for select regional exports. Now, all eyes turn to the next stop – Seoul, where Trump is scheduled to meet Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. After a week of high-profile diplomacy, this meeting is widely seen as the defining moment of Trump’s Asia tour – one that could recalibrate the balance of power between the world’s two largest economies. Resetting the trade relationship Trade remains the core issue between Washington and Beijing. Trump has repeatedly vowed to secure a “fair” deal that expands American exports and curbs what he sees as decades of Chinese advantage. Agricultural products – especially soybeans – are at the heart of US demands, with farmers back home watching closely for signs of renewed access to Chinese markets. China’s priorities are equally clear. Beijing wants relief from the US tariffs and assurances that Washington won’t impose new unilateral restrictions. Chinese officials are also seeking greater predictability after years of tariff shocks and export bans that have unsettled its manufacturing base. While both sides have expressed optimism, insiders suggest that a partial framework deal – rather than a sweeping agreement – is the most likely outcome. Rare earths and economic leverage Behind the scenes, both governments are maneuvering over control of rare earth elements, the metals crucial to everything from smartphones to fighter jets. China dominates global production and recently tightened export controls, prompting Washington to threaten tariffs of up to 100 percent. The standoff has underscored the growing interdependence of global supply chains. Trump’s team wants to guarantee access to critical minerals, while China views the US tariffs as an attempt to curb its technological rise. Fighting fentanyl The US delegation is also expected to push China on curbing the flow of chemicals used to make fentanyl, the potent synthetic opioid driving a deadly addiction crisis in America. Trump has made the issue a domestic priority, calling for Beijing to strengthen enforcement and monitoring of chemical exports. Progress here would offer both leaders an opportunity to claim a humanitarian win. China and Russia’s War in Ukraine Beyond trade, the two leaders will also confront hard geopolitical realities. Trump has said he plans to question China’s ongoing purchases of Russian oil and its role in indirectly supporting Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine. The US hopes Beijing can use its leverage over Russia to help push for peace – but so far, China has maintained that it is a “neutral mediator.” The tech divide Technology remains one of the most contentious areas of competition. The fate of TikTok, the Chinese-owned social media app facing renewed US scrutiny, will likely surface during talks. The White House has demanded strict guarantees to keep American user data out of Chinese hands, while Beijing accuses Washington of unfairly targeting its tech sector. The two sides are also expected to touch on artificial intelligence governance, cybersecurity, and data sovereignty, as they vie for dominance in the digital age. Taiwan and the strategic balance No US-China dialogue is complete without mention of Taiwan. Although Trump has adopted a less confrontational tone than some of his predecessors, Washington’s continued support for Taipei remains a flashpoint. Beijing insists the island’s status is a “core interest” on which it will not compromise. Both sides are expected to tread carefully, aware that a misstep could derail broader negotiations. A moment of opportunity After a whirlwind week of diplomacy stretching from Tokyo to Kuala Lumpur, Trump arrives at the Xi meeting with both momentum and risk. Each leader faces domestic challenges – Trump from a polarized Washington and Xi from a slowing Chinese economy. Yet both need a success story. Even a limited deal on trade, fentanyl enforcement, or technology safeguards could offer symbolic proof that cooperation is still possible between two increasingly antagonistic global rivals. Failure, on the other hand, could reignite tariff battles and deepen global uncertainty.
