By Evan Macy
Copyright phillyvoice
The Phillies have a commanding lead in the NL East and appear to be all but assured not only a berth into the postseason, but also a first-round bye into the NL Divisional Round.
Things remain fluid, and scoreboard watching should be part of every Phillies fan’s routine for the remaining two and a half weeks of regular season baseball. It’s entirely possible they finish with the best record in the majors this year. But they have to keep winning.
Here’s an update on where things currently stand and a look at some potential scenarios:
Clinching a playoff berth
The Phillies have a magic number of five to officially punch a ticket into the playoff bracket. The Reds and Giants (more on both in a second) each trail the Phillies by 14.5 games with 16 left to play. Philly needs to either win five of its remaining games, or the Reds and Giants need to lose five of their remaining games for the Phillies to make it official — or any combination of five Phillies wins with losses from those two clubs.
Here’s a look at the Phillies remaining slate:
Clinching the NL East
After winning Wednesday in dominating fashion over the Mets, the Phillies have a massive 10 game lead in the NL East. If everything goes Philadelphia’s way, they can technically clinch Sunday against the Royals, but it would need to be a perfect storm and the Phillies would need to extend their winning streak to seven, with some help from the Mets, who host the Rangers this coming weekend.
With a magic number of seven, the Phillies are more likely to clinch things out west when they play the Dodgers and Diamondbacks next week.
The No. 2 seed
The Phillies lead the Cubs by three for the second bye in the NL. Because they own the tiebreaker, they need to at least finish the year with the same record as Chicago has to avoid the Wild Card round.
Here’s what the Cubs have left:
The No. 1 seed
Dominant play of late, despite the injuries of Zack Wheeler, Alec Bohm and Trea Turner, actually have the Phillies in the mix to catch the Brewers for the No. 1 overall seed in the NL. They trail by 2.5 games heading into Thursday, so it’s still not super likely, but there are some major advantages if they can keep their feet on the gas and try and catch them.
In addition to landing home field advantage for the entire playoffs (they lead the top AL team in the standings by two games currently), the Phillies would face the winner of the 4-vs-5 Wild card series, currently the Cubs and Padres. Those two opponents may be more desirable than the winner of the 3-vs-6 series, currently the Dodgers and the Mets, based on the Phillies’ recent struggles at Citi Field. The Dodgers are the defending World Series champions.
Here’s a look at the Brewers’ remaining slate of games:
It’s not a cakewalk slate — but with Milwaukee holding the tiebreaker (they won four of six games against the Phillies this season) the Phillies need to finish with three more wins than them down the stretch. So if the Brewers finish 9-6, Philadelphia would need to finish 12-4.
The flailing Mets
Philly’s rivals to the north have become less intimidating this week as they’ve been thoroughly dominated, but fans should still be rooting for their continued demise. The Reds and Giants are hot on NY’s tail, each just two games behind the Mets for the final playoff spot in the NL.
Here’s a look at the Mets’ final slate of games:
It’s been well documented that the Phillies are just a total disaster in Queens. And while the team will definitely welcome a chance to fight those demons in October, avoiding it might be a smart move if the have the chance to.
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