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Much different than last season, Pete Alonso is entering free agency coming off a tremendous season at the plate. Will that be enough to finally get him paid though? The league consensus seems to be that he’s destined to be a designated hitter sooner rather than later and that lumbering sluggers like him aren’t worth long-term commitments. Let’s see if that’s really the case. 👉 Don’t forget: Check out the Rotoworld player news feed for all the latest news, rumors, and transactions as MLB’s Hot Stove gets underway! ▶ Alonso in Review Alonso has been one of the most prolific run producers in the league since he debuted in 2019. He set the all-time rookie home run record that season with 53 and has never hit fewer than 34 in a full season since. Overall, only Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber have more homers than Alonso since he entered the league and no player has driven in more runs. Yet, he’s still had some major ebbs and flows in his overall consistency as a hitter. He put up career lows with a .217 batting average and .318 on-base percentage in 2023 with a shockingly low hard-hit rate that dipped below the major league average. He followed that up with another lackluster season by his own standards setting career lows in homers and RBI. Many of his quality of contact metrics did tick back up though, just without enough consistent contact being made. It was nice to see those regular season doldrums not carry into the playoffs where he had a .999 OPS, 10 RBI, and four homers in 13 games including this dramatic blast to give the Mets an improbable win over the Brewers to advance to the NLDS. Despite those heroics, the two worst seasons of his career back-to-back didn’t put him in a good position as his contract expired after last year. He floundered on the market until early February before begrudgingly signing a two-year deal with an opt-out to return to the Mets. This season was much better. Alonso got back to hitting the ball incredibly hard and was eighth in the league with a 141 wRC+ partially fueled by a career-best .272 batting average. He made more contact, that contact was consistently of higher quality, and he maintained what has always been elite bat speed plus elite swing decisions. His future at first base is in question, but Alonso is still absolutely an elite hitter and can likely sustain as such through his mid-30s. ▶ Market Outlook A huge bounceback campaign without being saddled by a qualifying offer will surely help Alonso get closer to the long-term deal he sought last offseason. Early word from agent Scott Boras is that they’re seeking a seven-year contract. This will probably more serve as an anchoring point rather than a firm line. The only first baseman in the league who signed for more than three years are Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Alonso is either older, less consistent, or simply not on the same level as the members of that trio. Still, a four- or five-year deal could make sense given a skill set – top of the league bat speed and excellent swing decisions – that should keep him as a high-end power hitter until his mid-30s. A lot of the conversation will come back to his overall value though, which is dragged down by a poor glove. That likely makes him best fit as a part-time designated hitter now and possibly close to a full time one within a few years. Also, the way we’ve seen similarly built powerful first baseman fall apart quickly as they’ve aged. ▶ Best Fits Mets: The most obvious fit given his long history with the club and lack of a fill-in at first base if he were to sign elsewhere. He’s the franchise’s all-time home run leader, a fan favorite, and is coming off one of the best seasons of his career. Yet, the Mets were unwilling to give him a long term contract last winter so it’s very possible they once again balk if a bidding war takes Alonso’s deal to five years or more. Red Sox: Desperate for both a power bat and first baseman, Alonso fits the bill for a team that could be aggressive this winter after a surprise playoff appearance. Triston Casas is still (somewhat) in the picture though, so it’s unclear if they’d commit many years to Alonso. Phillies: Let’s get crazy. Is there a world where Bryce Harper can move back to the outfield to acquiesce Alonso at first base? It was apparently on the table last offseason and the Phillies are desperate to get over the hump, with or without Kyle Schwarber. Taking a huge bat out of the Mets’ lineup would be an added bonus. Then, it’s about whether certain power-hungry teams actually want to spend money. The Pirates should be a great fit if they ever decide it’s time to try and win baseball games. Same goes for the Mariners if Josh Naylor winds up elsewhere and they’re willing to open up the checkbook. Maybe the Rangers as well if they believe they’re still in their competitive window. Do the Reds want to tie their lineup together with a true masher? Then boom, Alonso is a fit there too. Yet, we’ll never be certain who is actually willing to spend money in any given offseason. 🔮 Contract Prediction Once again, Alonso’s market could be softer than he and Boras hope and if they overplay their hand once again, the Mets will be sitting back and ready for a compromise. Plus, Alonso is so embedded in the Mets’ culture that all parties likely want to wind up back together.
