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College football fans circled this matchup in the preseason because it was a game between the No. 2 (PSU) and No. 3 (OSU) teams in the AP poll. Ohio State held up its end of the bargain, but Penn State hasn’t come close to meeting preseason expectations. The Buckeyes are 7-0 and have won six-straight games by 18 points or more. The Nittany Lions are 3-4 with four consecutive losses. Former head coach James Franklin was fired after Week 7, and PSU has yet to beat a Big Ten team. A matchup that was pegged as a potential preview for the national championship now lists Ohio State as high as a 19.5-point favorite. Read on to see my Penn State vs. Ohio State best bets, with odds provided by the best Ohio sportsbooks. RELATED: Take a deeper dive into Ohio State’s Week 10 odds vs. Penn State. Penn State vs. Ohio State predictions and best bets Ohio State -18.5: -110 at FanDuel Penn State team total under 13.5: -125 at DraftKings NOTE: Odds are based on the best value our experts find when writing; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds. Aside from the losses Penn State has taken on the field, a pair of key Nittany Lions players have also been lost due to season-ending injuries. QB Drew Allar and star LB Tony Rojas are unlikely to suit up again this season, making an upset even harder to imagine. Besides those two injuries, the Penn State roster is generally the same from Week 1. New PSU QB Ethan Grunkemeyer grew up in Lewis Center, Ohio, which is a short 20-mile drive from Columbus. His first start resulted in a 25-24 loss at Iowa, and Grunkemeyer completed 54% of his passes for 93 yards and two interceptions. Things won’t get any easier when Grunkemeyer lines up against an Ohio State defense that allows the fewest points per game (5.9) in FBS. The Buckeyes also rank first in total yards allowed per game (216.9), and no team has surrendered fewer passing touchdowns (3) or rushing touchdowns (1). At BetMGM Sportsbook, Penn State’s team total is set at 10.5 points. Nitanny Lions RBs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton should get a heavy workload. Penn State runs for 169.6 yards per game, and the Allen-Singleton duo has combined for 886 yards and 15 touchdowns. PSU had a hard time passing the ball when Allar was healthy, and that’s unlikely to change with Grunkemeyer under center. The Nittany Lions’ top WR is Devonte Ross, who ranks 41st in Big Ten receiving yards (255). Even if Ohio State’s offense has an off day, the defense could ball out and help the Buckeyes cover the spread. OSU scores the fourth-most points per game (36.4) in the Big Ten, led by QB Julian Sayin and WR Jeremiah Smith. Both players hold top 10 Heisman Trophy odds at Caesars (Sayin +375, Smith +4000). With no hopes of winning the Big Ten Championship or qualifying for the College Football Playoff, Penn State is strictly playing for pride. That may keep the game tight in the early stages, but I expect Ohio State to roll in another dominant victory. Penn State vs. Ohio State moneyline odds analysis Why Ohio State could win as the favorite Best odds: -1200 at DraftKings Ohio State is aiming for its ninth-straight win against Penn State. The Nittany Lions last beat the Buckeyes in 2016, and PSU’s most recent win in Columbus came in 2011. According to CBS Sports, Ohio State’s defense has allowed the second-fewest points per game through the first seven games of a season in the past 40 years. The only team that surrendered fewer points was Florida State in 1993. The Buckeyes have an extremely favorable schedule ahead, and they should be double-digit favorites in the next three games. OSU’s only real test comes in rivalry week when it travels to Ann Arbor for a matchup with No. 21 Michigan. Ohio State has a clear path to the Big Ten Championship, and Penn State’s losses to UCLA, Northwestern and Iowa show it’s not ready to compete with the defending national champions. Why Penn State could win as the underdog Best odds: +825 at BetMGM Ohio State is no stranger to upset losses at Ohio Stadium. Michigan beat OSU as a 20.5-point underdog last season, proving you should expect the unexpected in college football. Despite Penn State’s 3-4 record, this may be the most talented team Ohio State has faced thus far. The Buckeyes had a relatively easy schedule through the first seven games, and their best win came against then-No. 1 Texas. However, that victory carries significantly less weight now that the Longhorns have drastically underperformed relative to their preseason expectations. Last week’s bye couldn’t have come at a better time for Penn State. Interim head coach Terry Smith and the staff needed all the time they could get to gameplan for the top team in the nation. Ohio State’s rushing attack is its only notable weakness. The Buckeyes run for 151.7 yards per game, which ranks 10th in the Big Ten. If Penn State can stuff OSU’s ball carriers, it would put all the pressure on Sayin to move the ball downfield. However, the Nittany Lions would also need to prevent big plays from Smith and WR Carnell Tate. That’s much easier said than done.
