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“That’s what we’re always trying to do is not allow these, what have you, good times, soften us up mentally and just let things slip,” he said Wednesday. “Especially in this league where anything can happen. We talk about having an identity, and the identity doesn’t care where you play, it doesn’t care what time it is, and it doesn’t care what the score is.” Here’s where the Patriots need to improve in order to play at their best: ⋅ The running game, specifically the backs. Offensive production isn’t a problem, as the Patriots rank No. 8 in scoring (26.6 points per game). But most of it has come from Maye and the passing game, as the running game has been dismal, particularly on early downs. The Patriots rank 25th in yards per attempt (3.9), 30th in “successful runs” based on down and distance (38 percent), and 31st in rushes of 4-plus yards (39.3 percent). Rhamondre Stevenson ranks 39th of 41 qualified running backs in yards per carry (3.36), 39th in success rate (32.5 percent), and 41st in “expected points added,” which has become a catch-all stat in the NFL, similar to WAR in baseball. Rookie TreVeyon Henderson has done somewhat better with fewer opportunities, ranking 22nd in yards per carry (4.3), 18th in success rate (41.2 percent), and 18th in EPA. The numbers point to Stevenson and Henderson needing to improve more than the offensive line. The line hasn’t been perfect, ranked 24th in run blocking by Pro Football Focus. The Patriots also have faced the sixth-most stacked boxes, and sixth-fewest light boxes, in the NFL by percentage. But the offensive line hasn’t been terrible. The Patriots rank seventh in the NFL in rush-block win rate, according to ESPN analytics. The Patriots also rank 12th in yards before contact per attempt and 17th in negative run percentage (excluding kneeldowns), indicating that the running backs aren’t getting hit in the backfield an abnormal amount. But the Patriots are struggling after contact, which speaks to the players’ inability to gain extra yards on their own. The Patriots rank 32nd in yards after contact per attempt (2.35), with just one official broken tackle all season. Stevenson ranks 39th of 41 running backs in average yards after contact (2.5), while Henderson ranks 32nd (3.0), with no broken tackles. Stevenson ranks 28th in “rushing yards over expected” (plus-20), while Henderson ranks 38th (minus-33). Henderson had a better day against the Browns, rushing 10 times for 75 yards despite facing a stacked box on six of his attempts. But it seems clear that Stevenson and Henderson need to improve their vision and run strength (and hold onto the ball). An improved running game will be especially important in December and January in the cold weather. ⋅ Maye taking sacks. Maye ranks in the top five in almost every quarterback category, including sacks. Entering Week 9, Maye ranks second with 28 sacks, and has the third-highest sack rate (11 percent). Maye faces a decent amount of pressure — the seventh-most (39.5 percent) — but as with the running game struggles, Maye’s sacks seem to be more on him than the offensive line. The pass blocking has been mostly solid — ranked fifth-best by PFF, while Maye has the eighth-most time to throw of all quarterbacks. Rookies Will Campbell and Jared Wilson have each allowed three sacks, and Morgan Moses has allowed one. Center Garrett Bradbury and right guard Mike Onwenu have not allowed a sack all season. Henderson has allowed two, and Hunter Henry was assigned one, meaning a majority of the sacks are on Maye for running into trouble or not getting the ball out quickly enough. The good news is despite the high volume of sacks, Maye ranks just ninth in yards lost (114), an average of just 4 per sack. But the fewer hits and negative runs Maye can take, the better. ⋅ Slow starts. The Patriots have allowed an opening-drive touchdown in four of eight games, and a field goal in two others. The 33 points allowed by the Patriots on opening possessions are third-most in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ offense ranks 15th with 19 points on opening possessions. Vrabel has made it an emphasis each week in practice, yet the Patriots can’t figure out how to start strong. Quarterbacks including Geno Smith, Bryce Young, Spencer Rattler, Cam Ward, and Dillon Gabriel have marched down the field for scores. The Patriots have dominated the second and third quarters with a plus-65 point differential, but falling into an early hole could be costly when they play against Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson, and of course in the playoffs. ⋅ Pass defense — tackling and defending the deep ball. Despite having an excellent cover cornerback in Christian Gonzalez and a good one in Carlton Davis, the Patriots rank 25th in net yards per pass attempt (6.6) and have allowed the second-most completions of 20-plus yards in the NFL (28). There is room for improvement on passes that travel at least 21 air yards. The Patriots have allowed completions on 12 of 21 attempts for a 57.1 percent completion rate that ranks 31st. Those completions have gone for 365 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception for a 121.5 passer rating on deep passes that ranks 28th. The Patriots also need to improve their tackling in the secondary. They allow the seventh-most yards after catch per reception (5.7), and 50.4 percent of their passing yards allowed have come after the catch, also seventh-highest. ⋅ Punt coverage. The Patriots rank 32nd in the NFL in average punt return allowed (16.8 yards on 10 returns). Of course, 74 of the 168 yards allowed came on a touchdown by the Dolphins’ Malik Washington. But even removing that, the Patriots are allowing 10.4 yards on their other nine returns, which isn’t great. The Jaguars, Colts, and Commanders have each allowed less than 5 yards per punt return this season.
