Patriots-Jets preview: How Diggs could play key role in primetime clash
Patriots-Jets preview: How Diggs could play key role in primetime clash
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Patriots-Jets preview: How Diggs could play key role in primetime clash

🕒︎ 2025-11-12

Copyright NBC10 Boston

Patriots-Jets preview: How Diggs could play key role in primetime clash

Mike Vrabel doesn't want to be the center of attention. He consistently insists that the focus be on the players, the players, the players. That approach seems to be part of the reason his players in New England have responded to him in the way they have. They know -- whether he's diving at the bottom of a pile in training camp or walking out to the field to check on them after they've been injured -- he has their backs. But on Thursday night against the Jets, the spotlight will be on Vrabel. Like it or not. Short week. Eleventh-consecutive game. In the cold. The Patriots will be the more talented team. But in order for them to ensure that they're the sharper-looking team, they'll need to have recovered properly -- something that is firmly under the purview of Vrabel and his assistants -- following their win in Tampa. They'll also need to be fully bought into Vrabel's messaging. That second thing? If their 8-2 record wasn't enough in the way of evidence, it certainly feels as though there is a high level of buy-in there. "One day at a time," Morgan Moses told Mike Onwenu on the sidelines at Raymond James Stadium last weekend. "You put in the work, this is how (expletive) is going to pan out, bro. We playing together. That's the most important part. It ain't one person sticking out. We're all doing it together." With success has come a belief in the road they're on. And even on a short week, they don't want to diverge from that road when at all possible. When asked Tuesday about the buy-in he has from his players, Vrabel deflected and pointed to the leaders in his locker room. He relayed a story about how he tried to give them more opportunity to rest by shortening a meeting this week, but they actually opted to keep the normal-length session at a different time. "I said, 'Hey, I can give up 25 minutes on Thursday in the squad,' " Vrabel said. "They all were like, 'No, that's an important meeting.' The leaders were like, 'That's an important meeting. We do the mental performance. We like the questions and all that.' I said, 'OK, then we'll figure out a way to make the schedule.' "I just use that as an example that it wasn't a set-up question. It was me just trying to find some extra time to give them in the meetings, but also come in a little later. I appreciated that, that they thought that was an important part of their day as well. I think it's just about the leadership." Another sign that the players are all-in on their coach and the path he has them on: When asked if they wanted to practice indoors on Tuesday, they told him no. "We got asked today if we want to go inside," Drake Maye said. "We wanted to go outside. Just trying not to let the little things go. Know that these things matter. They have mattered in the past, and I think that'll show up again." No shortcuts. Focus on the little things. Sure sounds like a team that is starting to think like their head coach, even when it's Vrabel who is offering them the opportunity to take a breath in the name of recovery before a Thursday Night Football game. Vrabel doesn't want the attention, but if his players come out of the gates against the Jets with energy and enthusiasm, that'll reflect positively on him and the job he's done in Year 1 in Foxboro. It'll be a chance for the rest of the football-watching world to be reminded -- for the first time since playing in prime time in Week 5 -- what kind of impact he's had. Like it or not. If the Patriots working against the challenges of being on short rest is the most critical "matchup" this week, here are the others that have piqued our interest ahead of Thursday night. Matchup that will determine the outcome Patriots defense vs. Breece Hall If the Jets can't run it, they have very few avenues to scoring points. (We'll get to one of those lesser-known avenues below.) Their passing game is one of the weakest in the NFL, if not the weakest, averaging a league-worst 143.8 passing yards per game. They also allow pressure more frequently than any other team (47.8 percent pressure rate), per Next Gen Stats, and if that were to continue it would be the highest pressure rate allowed since at least 2018. Rookie right tackle Armand Membou is allowing a 12 percent pressure rate, which is fifth-highest among qualifying right tackles. That means Breece Hall is going to have to lead the charge for the visitors on Thursday. He's a talented back who has hit 15 mph or faster on over one-fifth of his carries, and his speed has helped him rack up 134 yards over expected, per NGS. The Patriots, however, should be ready to make him the focal point of their attack. They seem well-suited to slow him down given that they've allowed a league-best -127 rush yards over expected this season. They've also done an excellent job of tackling opposing running backs this season, allowing the third-lowest explosive run rate (5.1 percent) in the NFL. The Patriots lead the league in rush yards allowed per game (79.2), they're fourth in run-stuff percentage (20.0), they're sixth in EPA per rush (-0.11) and sixth in yards after contact allowed per attempt (2.75). Stop Hall, win the game. Spoiler alert: The Patriots should be able to do both. Matchup that will make your Thursday night Stefon Diggs vs. Jets secondary The Jets have been relatively effective against the pass this year. They're eighth in the NFL in pass yards allowed per game and they're 13th in yards per pass play (6.0). They've also been very effective at forcing tight-window throws, with 22 percent of the targets against them going to players with less than one yard of separation. At the trade deadline, of course, the Jets' pass defense took a hit. They dealt away top corner Sauce Gardner and explosive interior pass-rusher Quinnen Williams. But if they're still somehow able to consistently force tight-window attempts by Drake Maye, the Patriots have a tight-window pass-catcher to lean on: Stefon Diggs. Diggs has reeled in 72.7 percent of his tight-window targets (eight of 11), per NGS, which is the best mark in the NFL among players with at least 10 tight-window targets. He's a significant reason as to why the Patriots are converting 42.0 percent of their third downs (seventh-best in the NFL) and 80 percent of their fourth downs (third), and he could end up being key to his team's offensive success yet again this week as a short-to-intermediate option. Matchup that will surprise you Jets defense vs. Drake Maye's deep shots The Patriots may need Diggs as much as ever this week given that the Jets tend to do a good job of limiting deep completions. According to NGS, they've allowed just 246 yards on deep passes this season, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the league. Now, Drake Maye has been one of the best deep-ball throwers in the NFL this season so it's difficult to envision that portion of the Patriots offense disappearing on Thursday. He's completed 57.1 percent of his passes that have traveled at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, and his 43.6 EPA generated on those throws is tops in the NFL. But if he does opt for a quicker-hitting passing attack because the Jets don't allow him to launch, Maye will have to be sharp. Typically, he is. On throws that have been attempted in less than 2.5 seconds this season -- "quick," per NGS -- he has a league-best 61.2 success rate. The Jets have done a nice job against those throws this season, too, limiting quarterbacks to a 45.6 percent success rate (fifth in the NFL) on those quick throws. Good deep-ball thrower against a good deep-ball defense? Good quick-game passer against a good quick-game defense? Something, as they say, has got to give. The Patriots could simply try to get their running game going, despite the fact that they've struggled in that area for most of the year. TreVeyon Henderson is coming off a breakout performance with 55-yard and 69-yard touchdown runs. When they do run it, it may be in their best interest to get their linemen on the run. According to Nate Tice of Yahoo! Sports, the Patriots rank 12th in success rate and fifth in EPA per play on run plays with pullers this season. They rank 32nd in success rate and 29th in EPA per play on all other types of runs. Matchup that could ruin your Thursday night Jets return game vs. Patriots coverage units If the Jets are going to pull off an upset -- the Patriots are 12.5-point favorites, according to DraftKings -- this would be how they do it. Vrabel called the Jets and their return units "sensational" this week, and it's not hard to find out why. They got a 99-yard kick return for a touchdown from Kene Nwangwu in the first quarter of their win over the Browns last week. Moments later, Isaiah Williams returned a punt 74 yards for a score in what was eventually a 27-20 victory. Nwangwu was named special teams player of the week, and Williams earned the honor in Week 8 when he had 132 yards on five kickoff returns and 38 yards on three punt returns. In that phase of the game, where one play can change the entire complexion of the game, the Patriots know they'll have to be on point. "I see," Vrabel said, "a young, excited team that basically said, '(trading Gardner and Williams) is what we're going to do for our future, and we're not going to complain about it. We're not going to mope about it. We're going to play hard. We're going to use our speed. We're going to use Breece, and we’re going to use our return units that are sensational. We're going to play tough defense.' "And give them credit, a lot of teams or people could have been complaining and, 'Hey, we got rid of one of the best defensive linemen in the league and a corner,' and everything else. That didn't show up at all. I saw an energy. I saw excitement that jumped off the screen. So, this will be a challenge. I know they'll be ready to go on the road, we'll have to continue to prepare, and then ultimately play well." The Patriots rank seventh in the NFL in kick-return average allowed (24.1 yards) and 14th in punt average (47.2).

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