The Oregon Ducks travel to University Park to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions this weekend for the headline event of Week 5 in college football. This is a rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship, and the Ducks hope to repeat the outcome.
As the game draws closer, hype builds, and oddsmakers are ready to capitalize. There are already numerous betting markets available across top sportsbooks, accessible to those looking to wager on the game.
The oddsmakers favor Penn State as the Nittany Lions are 3.5-point favorites on the best betting apps. The over/under is between 52.5 and 53.5 points.
Oregon vs. Penn State predictions and best bets
Oregon ML: +154 at DraftKings
First Quarter — Oregon +0.5: -120 at DraftKings
Oregon Over 24.5 Total Points: +100 at Caesars
Experience is why Penn State is viewed as the favorite heading into this game, but the Ducks have had more opportunities to execute this season against Power 4 opponents. I like that to help Oregon find rhythm early and come out victorious.
Which is exactly why I like Oregon to tie or win the opening quarter. The Ducks’ offense is much more consistent and should be able to sustain drives early, while the Nittany Lions may need time to adapt. Oregon has won or tied in the first quarter in each of its first four games, with a point differential of 51-7.
Will Stein has found success with three quarterbacks at Oregon and has gone under 25 points three times in his three years as offensive coordinator. He should be able to go over that total again this Saturday after pouring on 45 against the Nittany Lions last year in the Big Ten title game.
Oregon vs. Penn State moneyline analysis
Why Penn State could win as the favorite
Best odds: -166 at FanDuel
The Nittany Lions are the projected favorite across the board in this matchup at all major sportsbooks. DraftKings gives Penn State the best chance of victory, offering a moneyline of -180, with FanDuel offering the best value to bettors at -166.
Oregon defeated Penn State last season in the Big Ten Championship, winning 45-37. However, the Ducks’ roster has experienced significant turnover, while the Nittany Lions have returned 14 starters from last season. That experience could come in handy at home against a young Oregon team.
Penn State will rely on its run game to be the centerpiece of its offensive attack. The backfield duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen has combined for over 450 rushing yards through the first three weeks and had over 2,200 last season. Both ball carriers are future NFL backs and should be in for a heavy workload this week.
The defense has shone for Penn State this season, allowing 5.7 points per game thus far — good enough for third in the country. The unit boasts the second-highest defensive grade in the Big Ten, according to PFF, and ranks in the top four in pass rush, coverage, and run defense. The Nittany Lions have a significant advantage if they can limit the Oregon offense.
Why Oregon could win as the underdog
Best odds: +154 at DraftKings
Oddsmakers across all the top sportsbooks view the Ducks as underdogs, but the lines offered vary. BetMGM Sportsbook gives Oregon the best chance to win with a moneyline of +145, while DraftKings provides the best value at +154.
On the eye test, Oregon has been the better team through the first four weeks of the season. The team has scored multiple-score victories over the likes of Northwestern and Oklahoma State, while Penn State has yet to play a Power 4 opponent.
Drew Allar has put together a solid year in the box score, but there are still far too many moments of inconsistency that have held him back as a quarterback. He’s thrown below a 60% completion rate in his last two games and threw at or below that number in five of his six games against ranked opponents last season.
On the other sideline, Dante Moore has started the year looking excellent. He’s completed nearly 75% of his passes and has the ninth-highest passing grade of qualified quarterbacks in the FBS. Pairing that with a rushing attack averaging the 10th most yards on the ground this season will make Penn State’s day very difficult.
The Ducks have very few weak spots in their lineup, making them an intriguing underdog in this Big Ten showdown. PFF has given the team an overall grade of 95.5 through the first four weeks — the seventh-highest score among FBS teams.