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Novo Nordisk (NVO) stock reversed its losses Wednesday, closing with a fractional gain, after the Wegovy and Ozempic maker cut its sales outlook for the third time this year. The Danish drugmaker now expects sales to grow 8% to 11%, narrowed from its guidance three months ago for 8% to 14% growth, in constant currency. At the end of last year, Novo had expected 2025 sales to increase 16% to 24%. Novo's guidance cut follows a disappointing third-quarter showing. Sales came in at about $11.54 billion, based on today's exchange rates. Though they grew about 5%, sales missed forecasts for $11.94 billion, according to FactSet. Earnings were also light at about 69 cents per share and fell 26%. Wegovy, the weight-loss drug, generated about $3.13 billion in sales, growing almost 18%, but coming up short of expectations for $3.33 billion. Diabetes powerhouse Ozempic brought in roughly $4.73 billion in sales, matching expectations and inching 3% higher year over year. On today's stock market, Novo Nordisk stock ended the regular session up 0.4% at 48.46. Novo Nordisk Stock: 'Hyper Growth' Stalls Chief Financial Officer Karsten Munk Knudsen says Novo Nordisk is coming off a period of "hyper growth," where quarterly sales grew between 20% to 40%. That has decelerated this year and Novo now expects a lower growth rate for its GLP-1-tied diabetes and obesity treatments. "It's really a function of a couple of factors," he told Investor's Business Daily. "One factor being a more competitive environment in the marketplace, impacting penetration of our products in the different market and segments. And then also, to some extend, the pace of opening up the market in obesity." Knudsen says Novo Nordisk is expanding its presence in the cash-pay market, inking deals with retail giants like Costco Wholesale (COST) and Sam's Club, a division of Walmart (WMT). It's also fighting back against compounders, who've long made knockoff versions of its semaglutide-based products, Ozempic and Wegovy, using a loophole that allows for personalized doses. To that end, Novo is negotiating a deal with Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) that would allow the telehealth company to sell Wegovy shots. This follows a big blowup with Hims earlier in the year. The duo struck a deal that would have allowed Hims to bundle a membership on its platform with Wegovy injections. But Novo quickly backed out, citing Hims' continued compounding efforts. The compounding side of things is "clearly one of the aspects" Novo is evaluating in all of its discussions with telehealth companies, Knudsen said. Competition With Eli Lilly Continues Competition is also heating up with Eli Lilly (LLY), which sells rival drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro. This is the second straight quarter in which sales of both tirzepatide-based drugs have topped and outgrown sales of Wegovy and Ozempic. Zepbound and Mounjaro sales both grew by triple digits, year over year, in the third quarter. And, while Eli Lilly stock is only about 5% off its August 2024 peak, Novo Nordisk stock has fallen more than 68% from its highest point in June 2024. But Knudsen says competition with Eli Lilly is nothing new. The companies have competed on insulin products for a century. Now, they're rivaling one another with GLP-1 drugs. But, he noted, Novo Nordisk launched its GLP-1 drugs years before Eli Lilly. Early into their launch, sales of Wegovy and Ozempic were stronger than they are today, he said. "I think this is the name of the game being in the markets we operate in," he said. "But the backdrop behind all of this is the significant market expansion — moving from a very, very small market into a market which serves millions and million of patients. And that's truly the key takeaway here." The Battle To Acquire Metsera Still, Novo isn't holding back. The company is working to launch its Wegovy pill. If it does, this will be the first oral GLP-1 drug for weight loss to hit the market. And, Novo Nordisk is working hard to acquire Metsera (MTSR) in another battle with Pfizer (PFE). Metsera's lead asset is another GLP-1 mimicker, but it could be a monthly injection. The company is also working on an amylin-targeting drug. Novo Nordisk already sells Wegovy and has an amylin-based drug in its pipeline. But Knudsen notes Wegovy will go off patent in the U.S. in the 2030s. The company is also becoming more interested in the amylin approach. "We have our own first-generation amylin project, but we also believe that could be a play with the next-generation amylin from Metsera," he said. "So, it's complimentary in a market which is becoming increasingly competitive." Novo Nordisk recently hiked its bid on Metsera to up to $10 billion, while Pfizer has pledged up to $8.1 billion. A judge declined to step in Tuesday, saying the bidding process seems to be ongoing. Pfizer now has until later this week to up its bid or face the potential of losing out on Metsera. Follow Allison Gatlin on X/Twitter at @AGatlin_IBD. YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
