APAC stocks eventually traded mixed following the subdued lead from Wall Street; Japanese markets returned from holiday, Chinese markets were choppy before posting gains.
Fed Chair Powell said that towards the next meeting, the Fed will look at labour market, growth data, and inflation data to assess whether policy is in the right place, adding that if it is not, they will move it there.
DXY edged higher throughout the APAC session, EUR/USD briefly dipped under 1.1800, AUD was boosted by Aussie CPI, JPY weakened slightly post-PMI.
US President Trump shifted his stance on Ukraine and said he thinks Ukraine, with the support of the EU, is in a position to fight and “win” all of Ukraine back in its original form.
OpenAI, Oracle (ORCL), and Softbank (9984 JT) announced five new US data centres; NVIDIA (NVDA) director Mark A. Stevens sold over 350k common shares.
European equity futures are indicative of a softer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.4% after cash closed +0.6% on Tuesday.
Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo Survey (Sep), Supply from Italy, UK, Germany, US, Speeches from BoE’s Greene, Fed’s Daly.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks closed lower, pausing the recent rally. Energy outperformed on the back of a rebound in crude prices, while Consumer Discretionary and Technology lagged. NVIDIA (-2.8%) gave back some of Monday’s gains from the OpenAI deal, weighing most heavily on the S&P 500 (-0.6%) and Nasdaq 100 (-0.7%), alongside Amazon (-2.8%).
SPX -0.55% at 6,657, NDX -0.73% at 24,580, DJI -0.19% at 46,293, RUT -0.24% at 2,458.
Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
House Democrats will meet on September 29th in Washington, D.C. to discuss government funding, according to Bloomberg.
OpenAI, Oracle (ORCL), and Softbank (9984 JT) announced five new US data centres; expects new data centre site to create over 25,000 direct jobs and tens of thousands more across the US. The firm continues assessing further potential locations for expansion.
NVIDIA (NVDA) director Mark A. Stevens sold over 350k common shares at an average price of USD 176.3923/shr on 19 September (vs 178.43 closing price on Tuesday)
Micron (MU) Q2 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.03 (exp. 2.86), Revenue 11.32bln (exp. 11.21bln). Adj. net income 3.469bln (exp. 3.158bln). Outlook: Q1 EPS 3.75 (exp. 3.07). Q1 revenue 12.5bln (exp. 11.87bln). Shares settled +0.4% after hours.
CENTRAL BANKS
Fed Chair Powell said downside risks to employment shifted the balance of risks, prompting last week’s rate cut, which he described as another step towards a more neutral policy stance. He stressed that with two-sided risks there is no risk-free path and policy is not on a pre-set course, while the stance remains modestly restrictive and well-positioned to respond to developments. He noted economic growth has moderated with rising downside risks to jobs, consumer spending has slowed, and businesses say uncertainty weighs on the outlook. He said inflation has risen and remains somewhat elevated, with August PCE likely at 2.7% and core PCE at 2.3%, both up from a year earlier and driven by goods prices reflecting tariffs rather than broad pressures, adding that tariff-driven effects should be short-lived while services disinflation continues and long-term expectations remain consistent with 2%. He described the labour market as less dynamic and somewhat softer, with an unusual decline in both supply and demand for workers. He warned tariff increases will likely show up as higher inflation over several quarters but pledged to prevent a one-off price jump from becoming ongoing inflation, and he emphasised that at a time when public trust in institutions is challenged, those in public service must focus tightly on their critical missions, according to Reuters.
Fed Chair Powell said in a Q&A that towards the next meeting on 29 October the Fed will look at labour market, growth data, and inflation data to assess whether policy is in the right place, adding that if it is not, they will move it there. He said the policy path is difficult and required a compromise, stressed the need to look at both goals equally, and emphasised the need for a policy that covers a range of plausible outcomes, according to Reuters. Click here for the full Q&A remarks.
BoC Governor Macklem said he thinks the Bank of Canada will get back to a baseline forecast in the Monetary Policy Report, adding that the BoC is going to have to start being more forward-looking again, according to Reuters.
TRADE/TARIFFS
The White House said US President Trump will meet Australian Prime Minister Albanese on 20th October in Washington, according to Reuters.
US President Trump said he looks forward to continuing to work closely with Argentina’s President Milei and endorsed him for re-election, according to Truth Social.
Canadian PM Carney said discussions with US President Trump about a Canada-US trade deal will roll into the USMCA review process, noting that talks are ongoing and that Canada will sign when there is the right deal for the country, according to Reuters.
Canadian PM Carney said he is open to discussions with the Chinese Premier regarding steel tariffs, according to Reuters.
China’s Commerce Ministry stated it will not seek preferential treatment at the WTO, according to Reuters.
China’s Premier expressed willingness to enhance cooperation with Canada to improve bilateral relations, according to Reuters.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks eventually traded mixed following a subdued open as the sentiment from Wall Street initially reverberated, but later improved after Chinese cash trade got underway, whilst Hong Kong remained open despite the Super Typhoon.
ASX 200 declined as gold miners weighed following consecutive sessions of outperformance, while Tech mirrored Wall Street sectoral weakness.
Nikkei 225 returned from holiday to trade softer in line with the regional tone, though losses were somewhat cushioned by the NVIDIA/OpenAI rally it missed yesterday and a weaker JPY intraday.
KOSPI was pressured amid the broader global tech pullback and deteriorating South Korean consumer sentiment.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy and eventually traded in the green, with the former also boosted by Alibaba, whose shares surged after releasing its largest LLM whilst announcing plans to ramp up spending on AI infrastructure to better compete with US rivals.
US equity futures traded flat to slightly firmer (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1%), consolidating after Tuesday’s selling with little scheduled on the US docket for Wednesday.
European equity futures are indicative of a softer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.4% after cash closed +0.6% on Tuesday.
FX
DXY was modestly firmer after two sessions of losses, edging higher on quiet newsflow within a narrow 97.220–97.371 range, holding inside Tuesday’s 97.199–97.456 parameters.
EUR/USD edged lower as dollar strength weighed, with the pair eventually briefly dipping under 1.1800 and traders eyeing today’s German Ifo survey for direction amid light APAC newsflow.
GBP/USD was also subdued on broader dollar gains but remained above 1.3500, confined to yesterday’s afternoon range, with focus turning to BoE’s Greene, who will speak on “Supply shocks and monetary policy.”
USD/JPY edged closer towards 148.00 – supported by the stronger dollar and incremental JPY weakness after Flash PMIs showed deterioration across all components, though commentary highlighted persistent cost pressures and elevated inflation.
Antipodeans were initially subdued but AUD/USD reversed higher to reclaim 0.6600 after stronger-than-expected Aussie CPI data, while NZD/USD coat-tailed on some of the gains from its Tasman counterpart.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1077 vs exp. 7.1080 (Prev. 7.1057)
RBI reportedly likely intervened in NDF markets ahead of local opening to support the INR, according to traders cited by Reuters
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures were choppy in a tight range, initially maintaining a mild upward bias after the 2-year auction, which cleared well, but demand momentum cooled. Direct bidders eased off, dealers absorbed more, and indirects remain below average – suggesting investor appetite is still there, but less robust than in prior sales.
Bund futures held onto mild gains amid the broader cautious tone, with traders eyeing the German Ifo survey and a 2032 Bund auction later in the session.
10yr JGB futures advanced in tandem with western counterparts – playing catch-up after Tuesday’s Japanese holiday.
Italy to sell up to EUR 8.75bln in bonds on September 26th, via auction.
US sold USD 69bln of 2yr notes, stops-through 0.1bps. High Yield: 3.571% (prev. 3.641%, six-auction average 3.847%); WI 3.572%: Tail -0.1 (prev. -1.5bps, six-auction avg. -0.5bps), Bid-to-Cover: 2.51x (prev. 2.69x, six-auction avg. 2.61x), Dealers: 11.49% (prev. 9.7%, six-auction avg. 11.3%), Directs: 30.77% (prev. 33.2%, six-auction avg. 27.3%), Indirects: 57.75% (prev. 57.1%, six-auction avg. 61.4%)
Australia sold AUD 1bln 3.00% 2033 AGB; b/c 3.21x (prev. 3.29x), average yield 4.0912% (prev. 4.0742%)
South Korea will issue JPY 500bln in yen-denominated bonds, according to a Japanese regulatory filing.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures held an upward bias after Tuesday’s sharp gains, supported by punchy rhetoric from US President Trump and reports that Russia may extend its gasoline export ban, while the impact of a surprise large draw in private inventories was tempered by weaker internals.
Spot gold eased slightly on dollar strength but remained above USD 3,750/oz after yesterday’s record high of USD 3,791.25/oz, underpinned by geopolitics.
Copper futures were little changed, slipping back below USD 10,000/t amid dollar strength and softer risk sentiment.
US Private Inventories: Crude Stocks -3.82mln (exp. +0.2mln , prev. -3.4mln), Distillate +0.52mln (exp. -0.5mln, prev. +1.9mln), Gasoline Stocks +1.05mln (exp. +0.2mln, prev. -0.7mln), Cushing +0.07mln (prev. -0.38mln)
Peru’s Antamina mine expects to produce 380k metric tons of copper this year (vs 430k tons in 2024). 2026 copper output forecasts at 450k tons. Zinc production is projected at 450k tons this year (vs 270k tons in 2024).
Trump officials are seeking an equity stake in Lithium Americas (LAC) as part of the renegotiation of a USD 2.3bln loan for the Thacker Pass lithium project; Lithium Americas has offered the administration no-cost warrants that would equate to 5% to 10% of the company’s common shares, according to Reuters.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin found some reprieve overnight from recent selling, and hovered just above the USD 112k mark.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
New Zealand Finance Minister Willis said Anna Breman will be the new RBNZ Governor, beginning her five-year term on 1st December 2025. Breman will leave her position at the Riksbank on October 10th as she has been appointed the governor of the RBNZ.
Alibaba (BABA/ 9988 HK) officially released Qwen3-MAX, a 1tln-parameter large language model. CEO announced plans to ramp up spending on AI infrastructure to better compete with US rivals.
DATA RECAP
Australian Weighted CPI YY (Aug) 3.00% vs. Exp. 2.90% (Prev. 2.80%)
Australian CPI Annual Trimmed Mean YY (Aug) 2.60% (Prev. 2.70%)
Australian CPI SA MM (Aug) 0.10% (Prev. 0.90%)
Australian CPI SA YY (Aug) 3.00% (Prev. 2.80%)
Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash SA (Sep) 48.4 (Prev. 49.7)
Japanese S&P Global Services PMI Flash SA (Sep) 53.0 (Prev. 53.1)
Japanese S&P Global Composite Op Flash SA (Sep) 53.0 (Prev. 52.0)
South Korean Consumer Sentiment (Sep) 110.1 (Prev. 111.4)
GEOPOLITICS
NATO-RUSSIA
US President Trump said NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircrafts if they enter NATO airspace; asked if the US would support such action, he said it depends on the circumstances; he added that he thinks Hungarian leader Orban will stop buying Russian oil, and said we do not know exactly what happened in Denmark, according to Reuters.
European Commission President Von der Leyen, asked about when Europe can stop buying Russian oil, said that while some is still coming, a lot has already been done, and the aim is to be out by the end of the year, according to Reuters.
US Defense Secretary Hegseth spoke with his Estonian counterpart and affirmed that the US stands with NATO allies, stressing that any incursion into NATO airspace is unacceptable, according to the Pentagon.
G7 Foreign Ministers’ Joint Statement: G7 expresses concern over Russia’s latest airspace violations in Estonia, Poland, and Romania; G7 discussed imposing additional economic costs on Russia
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
US President Trump said he thinks Ukraine, with the support of the EU, is in a position to fight and “win” all of Ukraine back in its original form, arguing that with time, patience, and European—particularly NATO—financial support, restoring the original borders is a realistic option; he described Russia as fighting aimlessly for three and a half years in a war that should have taken a real military power less than a week, calling it a “paper tiger”, and said Russia is in “big economic trouble” with long fuel queues and most resources tied up in the war, while Ukraine has “great spirit” and is only getting stronger; he added that the US will continue supplying weapons to NATO for it to use as it wishes and wished both countries well, according to Truth Social.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said he was surprised at US President Trump’s recent comments on Ukraine but welcomed them as “a very positive signal” that the US and Trump would support Kyiv until the end of the war, according to Reuters.
MIDDLE EAST
There was nothing in the E3/EU-Iran meeting that made a snapback less likely, according to WSJ’s Norman, citing sources.
Iran has still not met conditions set by European powers to avert snapback, according to Reuters, citing French diplomatic sources; discussions with Iran over snapback will continue to explore all possibilities to find a solution, with sources saying the ball is in Iran’s court, and that in the absence of progress by the end of 27 September, UN sanctions will be reimposed on Iran.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei said negotiations with the US are a dead-end, that Iran does not need nuclear weapons and does not intend to produce them, and that the nation will not surrender to pressure regarding uranium enrichment, which the Iranian people will not accept at zero; he stressed that negotiations with the US in the present situation will not help Iran’s interests and are harmful, and claimed the US seeks to prevent Iran from possessing missiles, including midrange missiles, according to Reuters.
Iran’s Supreme Leader said the country has reached an advanced level in uranium enrichment, noting that while countries aiming to develop nuclear weapons enrich uranium up to 90%, Iran has limited enrichment to 60% because it has no need for such weapons and has intended not to pursue them, according to a post on X.
French President Macron said he will meet with the Iranian President on Wednesday to discuss the return of UN sanctions, according to Reuters.
US envoy Barrack said Israel and Syria are close to reaching a “de-escalation” arrangement under which Israel would halt its bombings and Syria would not move military equipment toward the border, with a security agreement to follow, according to Al-Monitor.
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