A Top 20 clash in Bloomington highlights this weekend’s college football slate as No. 19 Indiana hosts No. 9 Illinois.
No question this matchup carries with it Big Ten title and College Football Playoff implications. The loser is not out of consideration for either, but the road to trophies gets far more difficult for the squad finishing on the short end.
Lets dive into the matchup and take a look at both programs and offer a sweat or two for those interested in betting on the game.
Game Details and How to watch Illinois at Indiana
Date: Saturday, September 20th, 2025
Time: 7:30P Eastern
Site: Memorial Stadium
City: Bloomington, IN
TV/Streaming: NBC/Peacock
Game Odds for Illinois at Indiana
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Illinois Fighting Illini (+205), Indiana Hoosiers (-250)
Spread: Indiana -6.5 (-112)
Total: 52.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Indiana Hoosiers
Head Coach: Mario Cristobal
2025 Record: 3-0
Offense Ranking: 18th
Defense Ranking: 19th
Strength of Schedule: 28th
Through the first three games of the 2025 season, the Indiana Hoosiers have dominated weak non-conference competition enroute to a 3–0 start, outscoring Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, and Indiana State by a combined 156–23. Curt Cignetti’s squad currently ranks 13th in the SP+ ratings and boasts a Top 20 unit on both sides of the ball, with the offense ranked 18th and the defense 19th. The offense leads the nation in success rate (60.1%) while the defense is Top 6 in both success rate allowed (26.2%) and percentage of plays allowing zero or negative yardage (47.7%). Despite facing a weak strength of schedule so far (126th to date), Indiana’s +44.3 points-per-game scoring margin ranks 3rd nationally, and the Hoosiers have a 33% chance of reaching 10 wins or more according to SP+ metrics.
The Indiana Hoosiers Offense
Indiana’s offense has been one of the most efficient units in the country through three games, ranking 1st nationally in success rate (60.1%), 8th in EPA/play, and 8th in yards per play (7.96). The Hoosiers excel on early downs with a 61.7% success rate on standard downs (7th) and lead the nation in staying ahead of schedule, facing 3rd-and-long (7+ yards) just 14.7% of the time. Their ground game is formidable, averaging 7.0 yards per non-sack carry (6th) with a strong 12.1% stuff rate (15th). QB Fernando Mendoza leads an equally sharp passing game that boasts a 61.6% success rate (3rd) and 72.2% completion percentage (15th). Offensive line play has also been a strength, allowing sacks on just 1.0% of dropbacks (9th) and committing only 2.0 penalties per game (39th).
Indiana Hoosier to Watch on Offense: QB Fernando Mendoza
The Hoosiers’ signal-caller has been exceptionally efficient through his first three starts of the 2025 season, completing 72.4% of his passes for 708 yards, 9 touchdowns, and no interceptions. He boasts an elite adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) of 12.1 and a strong QBR of 79.5, while averaging 12.9 yards per completion with a 62.6% success rate through the air. Mendoza has been nearly untouchable under pressure, taking sacks on just 1.3% of dropbacks and only 7.7% of pressures, showing poise and decisiveness in the pocket. As a runner, he adds a reliable element with 71.4% rushing success rate and 5.43 yards per carry, providing Indiana with valuable dual-threat efficiency.
The Indiana Hoosiers Defense
Indiana’s defense has emerged as a disruptive, high-efficiency unit, ranking 6th nationally in success rate allowed (26.2%) and 5th in EPA/play allowed (-0.29). The front seven has been dominant, producing a 37.2% stuff rate (3rd) against the run and 40.3% pressure rate (7th) on dropbacks, anchored by a nation-leading 28.9% overall havoc rate. Pass coverage has held strong with opponents completing just 55.6% of passes (26th) and averaging only 3.9 yards per dropback (10th) and 3.1 ANY/A (5th). Indiana’s secondary has also been opportunistic, ranking 5th in pass deflection rate (PD/INC%) and 1st in interception rate (6.3%), while using zone coverage on over 80% of snaps.
Indiana Hoosier to Watch on Defense: Safety Louis Moore
The safety has been a disruptive and reliable presence in the secondary, totaling 16 tackles (11 solo) over two games while posting a commendable 84.2% tackle success rate. He has produced five havoc plays already—registering 1.5 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions (with 1 pass breakup), and 4 total run stops—highlighting his ability to impact both the run and pass games. In coverage, Moore has allowed just 3 completions on 7 targets (42.9%) for 37 yards and 5.3 yards per attempt, with an impressive 23.4 defensive QBR allowed. His 42.9% forced incompletion rate in coverage speaks to his playmaking instincts and ability to close on the football.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Head Coach: Bret Bielema
2025 Record: 3-0
Offense Ranking: 23rd
Defense Ranking: 20th
Strength of Schedule: 33rd
Through three games, Illinois has thoroughly dominated its early schedule with a 3–0 start, outscoring opponents 135–22 and covering the spread in all three matchups. The Illini opened the season by throttling FCS Western Illinois 52–3 with a 100% postgame win expectancy, followed by a 45–19 dismantling of Duke that exceeded SP+ projections by 23.1 points. They then shut out Western Michigan 38–0, holding the Broncos 10.6 points below their projected offensive output. Despite a weak strength of schedule to date (119th), Illinois ranks 16th in SP+ and 7th in Résumé SP+, flashing balanced, Top 25 efficiency on both sides of the ball.
The Illinois Offense
Illinois’ offense has surged to a Top 25 SP+ ranking (23rd) behind a methodical, efficient approach that ranks 15th nationally in points per drive (3.88) and 12th in finishing drives (5.82 points per scoring opportunity). They boast a 50.5% success rate in both the run and pass games, while ranking 15th nationally with a 72.2% completion percentage and zero interceptions through three games. The Illini are especially dangerous on passing downs (46.9% success rate, 8th), thanks to an elite adjusted net yards per attempt (13.0, 12th) and efficient red-zone execution (72.2% TD rate). While their tempo is slow (129th in seconds per play), the offense thrives on precision and play-action, ranking Top 20 in EPA/play (0.33) and is consistently outperforming SP+ expectations.
Illinois Player to Watch on Offense: QB Luke Altmyer
The senior has been a highly efficient and productive leader of the Illinois offense through three games, completing 71.8% of his passes for 709 yards and 8 touchdowns with zero interceptions. He boasts a stellar 12.7 yards per completion, a Total QBR of 76.2, and a Success Rate of 50.5%, showcasing consistent execution and big-play capability. Despite his strong performance, he has faced pressure—taking sacks on 10.3% of dropbacks and being pressured on 37.5%—but has still posted an excellent ANY/A (Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt) of 10.9. As a runner, Altmyer has added a dimension with his legs, converting at a 62.5% rushing success rate on 8 carries, though much of his production has come post-contact.
The Illinois Defense
Illinois’ defense has been suffocating through three games, allowing just 0.69 points per drive (6th nationally) and ranking 2nd in finishing drives by surrendering only 2.00 points per opponent scoring opportunity. The Illini boast a sub-35% success rate against both the run (29.7%, 14th) and pass (34.6%, 42nd) and are blitzing at the 3rd-highest rate in the country (52.5%). They’re especially stingy in the red zone, giving up touchdowns on just 33.3% of red zone trips (15th) and allowing a 40.0% goal-to-go TD rate, also 15th nationally. While they can be susceptible to explosive plays through the air—ranking 128th in yards per dropback vs. zone (10.0)—their elevated havoc rate (16.5%, 41st) and elite fourth-down defense (16.7% conversion rate allowed) make them one of the most effective stop units in the Big Ten.
Illinois Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Gabe Jacas
The senior has emerged as a disruptive force off the edge for Illinois, leading the team with 3.5 sacks and 5 havoc plays through three games. He’s been highly active in the backfield, recording 3 TFLs and forcing 2 fumbles, showcasing his ability to finish plays and create turnovers. Despite a relatively modest 6.3% pressure rate on 48 pass rushes, Jacas has proven efficient when opportunities arise, producing 6 first pressures and a team-best 3 sacks created. His presence as a consistent pass-rushing threat and backfield disruptor has made him a central figure in the Illini’s defensive attack.
Illinois at Indiana team stats, betting trends
Illinois has won 3 straight on the road
Illinois covered the spread 9 times last season
Illinois’ last 3 road games have gone over the Total
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): WR Hank Beatty OVER 4.5 receptions
Illinois WR Hank Beatty has assumed the extended handoff/quick strike role in HC Bret Bielema’s offense, portrayed most famously by Isaiah “Juice” Williams. Through the first three games he has secured at least 5 catches in each (5,8,6) while reeling-in all but one of his 20 targets thus far. With his role being primarily within the first 10-yards of the LOS, which leads to easy, manufactured touches, I expect Beatty to clear his set total of 4.5 Receptions for the fourth time this season.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Fighting Illini and Hoosiers:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Illinois Fighting Illini at +5.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 52.5.
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