The No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide (4-1) look to make it three straight wins over ranked opponents and conference foes this Saturday when they travel to Columbia, MO to take on No. 14 Missouri (5-0). The winner takes a big step forward towards a berth in the SEC Championship game and potentially a spot in the college football playoff.
After stumbling and losing to Florida State in their first game of the 2025 campaign, the Tide have ripped off four straight wins including the last two weeks over ranked Georgia and Vanderbilt squads. Missouri, meanwhile, knocked off South Carolina in its lone SEC affair of the season and while their offense is ranked as one of the best in the nation, this will certainly be a step up in class for the Tigers.
Lets take a closer look at each of these schools and their top players on both sides of the ball, and see what the numbers offer us as we look to potentially bet on this game.
Game Details and How to watch No. 8 Alabama at No. 14 Missouri
Date: Saturday, October 11, 2025
Time: 12:00PM Eastern
Site: Memorial Stadium
City: Columbia, MO
TV/Streaming: ABC
Game Odds for No. 8 Alabama at No. 14 Missouri
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Alabama Crimson Tide (-155), Missouri Tigers (+130)
Spread: Alabama -3.0 (-110)
Total: 51.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Alabama Crimson Tide
Head Coach: Kalen DeBoer
2025 Record: 4-1
Offense Ranking: 14
Defense Ranking: 9
Strength of Schedule: 3
The 2025 Alabama Crimson Tide boast a Top 10 SP+ profile (No. 7 overall) with a balanced offensive (14th) and defensive (9th) efficiency under DC Kane Wommack and second-year HC Kalen DeBoer. Offensively, Alabama ranks top 15 nationally in both EPA/play (0.26) and points per drive (3.71), leaning on an elite passing attack that converts 51.5% of its dropbacks into successful plays (13th) thanks to a 70.5% completion rate (15th). Defensively, the Tide allow just 1.43 points per drive (29th), with strengths in standard downs and explosive-play prevention, though their pressure rate (22.1%, 129th) is noticeably underwhelming by Alabama standards. Despite an early loss at Florida State, the Tide have rattled off four straight wins—including a critical road win at Georgia—and are favored in six of their final seven games, with CFP odds currently sitting at 20.3%.
The Alabama Crimson Tide Offense
Alabama’s offense ranks 14th nationally in SP+ and excels in passing efficiency, with a 70.5% completion rate (15th), 8.3 yards per dropback (19th), and a 0.42 EPA/dropback (10th), while also boasting a 52.1% third-down conversion rate (18th). Despite their explosive aerial attack, the ground game has lagged behind, ranking just 109th in yards per rush (4.3) and 99th in rushing success rate (40.9%). The Tide generate 6.67 yards per play (24th) and 3.71 points per drive (7th), while limiting offensive negative plays (3rd in havoc rate allowed at just 8.3%) and committing only one turnover in five games. Red zone efficiency (70.8% TD rate, 35th) and fourth-down conversions (7-for-13, 54%) provide further evidence of strong situational execution in OC Ryan Grubb’s system.
Alabama Player to Watch on Offense: QB Ty Simpson
Simpson is thriving under HC DeBoer’s tutelage, completing 70.3% of his passes for 1,478 yards, 13 touchdowns, and only one interception on 158 attempts. His strong 13.3 yards per completion and 10.9 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) reflect an explosive vertical passing element, while his 82.2 Total QBR confirms his command of the offense. He’s maintained a solid 50.0% success rate and only taken sacks on 4.8% of dropbacks despite being pressured on 20.0% of them, showcasing pocket poise and decision-making. As a runner, Simpson has added value with 80 yards and 2 touchdowns on 22 carries, achieving a 45.5% success rate while breaking tackles at a 0.30 per-carry clip.
The Alabama Crimson Tide Defense
Alabama’s defense ranks 9th nationally in SP+ but has shown inconsistency, especially against the run, allowing 5.0 yards per rush (98th) and ranking just 70th in stuff rate (18.6%). The secondary has been more effective, ranking 9th in opponent completion percentage on 20+ yard passes (9.4%) and 10th in yards per successful dropback (12.9), while holding opponents to 1.43 points per drive (29th). However, the Tide rank just 96th in sack rate and 129th in pressure rate, struggling to generate disruptive plays despite a strong havoc rate (38th overall). Alabama’s red zone defense has also been a liability, allowing a 100% goal-to-go TD rate (122nd), and 66.7% red zone TD rate (89th), highlighting their vulnerability in finishing drives.
Alabama Player to Watch on Defense: S Bray Hubbard
The Alabama safety has emerged as a vital contributor in the back end of the Crimson Tide defense, leading all defensive backs with 25 total tackles and showing strong tackling efficiency (80.6%). He’s consistently disruptive, registering 5 havoc plays, 2 interceptions, and 1 forced fumble, while also adding a tackle for loss and a run stop across just 4 games. In pass coverage, Hubbard was targeted 9 times and allowed only 4 completions (44.4%) for 36 total yards, while posting an elite 1.7 defensive QBR against and contributing 2 INTs with 1 PBU. He also flashed in limited pass-rushing opportunities, generating pressure on 40% of his 5 rushes, adding a versatile edge to his skill set.
Missouri Tigers
Head Coach: Eli Drinkwitz
2025 Record: 5-0
Offense Ranking: 6
Defense Ranking: 29
Strength of Schedule: 12
The 2025 Missouri Tigers have surged to a 5–0 start behind one of the most balanced teams in the country, ranking 9th overall in SP+, with the offense (12th) and defense (14th) both delivering top-tier production. The Tigers boast a Top 5 national ranking in success rate on both sides of the ball—offensively at 54.5% and defensively at just 30.2%—while also dominating standard and passing downs with precise efficiency (Top 10 in success rate in all four). Their offense is built on a strong rushing foundation (6.5 YPC, 54.9% success rate) and ultra-accurate passing (75.8% comp%, 53.9% success rate), despite a limited deep-ball element (just 5.9% of passes 20+ yards downfield, 134th nationally). On defense, the Tigers suffocate opponents with the nation’s #2 pressure rate (42.4%) and the #4 pass success rate allowed, ranking Top 5 in havoc and third-down stops—setting up a legitimate SEC East title run if they can survive a gauntlet that includes Alabama, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma.
The Missouri Tigers Offense
Missouri’s offense enters Week 7 ranked 12th in SP+ thanks to elite efficiency metrics, including a 54.5% success rate (5th nationally), pinpoint 75.8% completion rate (3rd), and the best third-down conversion rate in the country at 61.6%. The rushing attack is highly productive, averaging 6.5 yards per carry (9th), with both yards before and after contact ranking top 20 nationally, while their offensive line has allowed pressure on just 1.3% of dropbacks (15th). Missouri thrives in short-yardage and red zone scenarios, converting 74.1% of red zone trips. However, their home run ability is somewhat lacking, with a below-average marginal explosiveness rank (77th) and just 6.5% of plays gaining 20+ yards (68th), signaling a methodical, precision-based attack rather than a big-play offense.
Missouri Player to Watch on Offense: QB Brea Pribula
Pribula has been a revelation through five starts, completing 75.9% of his passes for 1,203 yards and a 9-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s averaging 10.9 yards per completion and a solid 7.3 yards per dropback, showcasing both accuracy and consistent intermediate efficiency. His success rate of 54.6% through the air is strong, though his 7.6% sack rate and 30.0% pressure-to-sack conversion indicate vulnerability under pressure. As a runner, Pribula adds dual-threat value with 184 rushing yards (6.57 YPC), a 60.7% success rate, and 3 rushing touchdowns, though he’s fumbled twice (losing one).
The Missouri Tigers Defense
Missouri’s defense has been dominant through five games, ranking 14th nationally in SP+ and pairing suffocating efficiency with elite pressure generation. The Tigers are holding opponents to a 30.2% success rate (5th nationally) and just 4.04 yards per play (8th), while producing the #2 pressure rate in the country (42.4%) and ranking 5th in overall havoc rate. Their pass defense has been particularly stingy, allowing only a 27.8% passing success rate (4th) and a 48.5% completion rate (1st), with opponents gaining ≤0 yards on 57.6% of dropbacks (2nd). Though the defense occasionally bends in the red zone (120th in points per scoring opportunity), it more than compensates with elite third‑down performance (21.0% allowed, 3rd) and disruptive front‑seven play that consistently flips field position and kills drives.
Missouri Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Damon Wilson II
The Edge has emerged as Missouri’s most impactful edge rusher, recording 15 pressures and 3.5 sacks on 79 pass-rush snaps, good for a 19.0% pressure rate which leads all defensive linemen on the team. He’s also created 4 of the team’s sacks and registered a “first pressure” on 15 different occasions, showing consistent disruption early in plays. His pass-rush productivity is backed by a solid 2.96-second average time to first pressure and a 19.4% pressure rate on third downs. Against the run, Wilson has posted a perfect 100% tackle rate and 69.2% run tackle share, complementing his pass-rushing prowess with 6 total havoc plays and 3 run stops across 5 games.
No. 8 Alabama at No. 14 Missouri team stats, betting trends
Alabama has won 3 straight games against Missouri
Alabama has failed to cover the Spread in its last 3 games as a road favorite
Alabama is 4-1 ATS this season
Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against Missouri
Missouri is 4-1 against the spread in its last 5 games against SEC opponents
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): WR Isaiah Horton OVER 45.5 receiving yards
Alabama HC Kalen DeBoer is known for his pass-over-run preference in his playcalling, with QB Ty Simpson having proved his ability to distribute the ball effectively in his system. Bama is trotting out three wideouts exclusively, with the towering Miami transfer Isaiah Horton having the lowest line of the group at 45.5 receiving yards. With Horton having cleared 45.5 receiving yards in each of his last four games, including 65+ yards in the last two games, I expect him to clear the very reasonable 45.5 receiving yardage prop.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between No. 8 Alabama and No. 14 Missouri:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Missouri Tigers at +3.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 51.5.
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