Saturday afternoon in South Bend, No. 21 Notre Dame (2-2) takes the field against the Broncos of Boise State (3-1).
After getting jumped, 34-7, to open the season in Tampa against South Florida, Boise State has gotten the offense on track exploding for 51, 49, and 47 points in their last three games.
The Irish look to have found a groove on offense as well. Last weekend they punished Arkansas, 56-13. CJ Carr threw for 354 yards and four touchdowns. Jeremiyah Love caught two of those four touchdown passes and scored another two on the ground in gaining 127 total yards.
Each of these schools can ill afford another loss if they hope to make the playoff so let’s dive into each school and discover their strengths and more importantly, their weaknesses as we look to find an angle or two to bet.
Game Details and How to watch Notre Dame vs. Boise State
Date: Saturday, October 4th, 2025
Time: 3:30PM Eastern
Site: Notre Dame Stadium
City: Notre Dame, IN
TV/Streaming: NBC/Peacock
Game Odds for Notre Dame vs. Boise State
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Boise State Broncos (+800), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-1350)
Spread: Notre Dame -21.0 (-110)
Total: 62.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Notre Dame Fightin Irish
Head Coach: Marcus Freeman
2025 Record: 2-2
Offense Ranking: 4
Defense Ranking: 47
Strength of Schedule: 43
Notre Dame has been an elite offensive unit in 2025, ranking 4th nationally in SP+ Offense behind a lethal combination of efficiency (28th in Success Rate) and explosiveness (7th in Marginal Explosiveness) while earning Top 10 marks in EPA/play (0.30, 10th) and yards per play (7.27, 13th). Quarterback play under CJ Carr has been especially effective, as the Irish rank 7th in Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt (13.8) and 2nd nationally in Total QBR (88.9). The run game complements the aerial attack with a 5.2 yards-per-carry clip and an impressive 82.4% red-zone touchdown rate, good for 12th in the country.
Defensively, however, Notre Dame ranks just 47th in SP+, hampered by a 109th-ranked passing success rate allowed and 102nd yards per play allowed, creating a high-variance unit that has been outdueled by both Texas A&M 41-40 and Miami 27-24.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish Offense
Notre Dame’s offense is among the most explosive and efficient in the country, ranking 4th in SP+ Offense and Top 10 nationally in both EPA/play (0.30) and yards per play (7.27). The passing game has been lethal, with the Irish posting a 70.2% completion rate, 13.8 adjusted net yards per attempt (7th nationally), and 30% of completions gaining 20+ yards, the 4th-highest rate in the FBS. They convert 52.3% of third downs and score 5.79 points per scoring opportunity (5th nationally), with an 82.4% red zone touchdown rate that emphasizes their ability to finish drives with authority. Despite a modest tempo (90th in seconds per play), their balanced approach, strong protection (only 4.4% pressure rate allowed), and explosive vertical game make the Irish a nightmare to defend.
Notre Dame Player to Watch on Offense: QB CJ Carr
The freshman has been stellar for Notre Dame through four starts, throwing for 1,091 yards and a 9-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio while completing 68.3% of his passes. He’s averaging an electric 15.4 yards per completion, with a Total QBR of 88.4 and 11.4 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A)—both elite marks. His 53.3% passing success rate and 9.2 yards per dropback reflect his poise and efficiency in the pocket, though he has taken sacks on 6.3% of dropbacks and has been pressured on 30.4% of them. Carr has also contributed on the ground with 46 rushing yards and a touchdown on 11 carries, boasting a 63.6% rushing success rate despite a negative yards-before-contact average due to sack adjustments.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish Defense
Notre Dame’s defense ranks 47th in SP+ and has struggled to contain explosive plays, giving up 7.9% of plays for 20+ yards (115th nationally) and allowing 8.1 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (82nd). Despite solid tackling efficiency (87.3% tackle success rate, 49th) the unit is inconsistent against both the run and pass, ranking 93rd in defensive EPA/play and 102nd in yards per play allowed (5.88). The defense is particularly vulnerable through the air, allowing opponents to complete 22.8% of passes for 20+ yards (130th) and rank 123rd in yards per dropback vs. zone coverage (8.7). Their pass rush has also underwhelmed, generating pressure on only 25.3% of dropbacks (106th) and converting that into sacks just 20.6% of the time (87th), limiting their ability to disrupt opposing quarterbacks.
Notre Dame Player to Watch: Edge Boubacar Traore
Traore has been a steady disruptor on the edge for Notre Dame, racking up 11 total tackles with a perfect 100% tackle rate and contributing 3.0 sacks and 2.0 tackles for loss across four games. His 71 pass rush snaps have yielded 4 total pressures (5.6% pressure rate), and he’s created one sack while forcing a fumble, showing a knack for finishing plays. Traore is tied for the team lead in total Havoc Plays (3.0), has drawn a penalty and is averaging 3.26-seconds time to first pressure.
Boise State Broncos
Head Coach: Sam Pittman
2025 Record: 3-1
Offense Ranking: 32
Defense Ranking: 62
Strength of Schedule: 90
Boise State’s 2025 team profile highlights an explosive offense and a defense struggling in key finishing moments. The Broncos rank 3rd nationally in marginal explosiveness and 4th in yards per successful play, leading to an impressive 7.07 yards per play and a 44.3% rushing success rate. Yet they struggle in finishing drives, ranking 106th in points per scoring opportunity and are converting red zone scores at just a 57.9% clip (93rd).
Defensively, they have a mismatched profile allowing touchdowns on 85.7% of red zone trips (133rd) while ranking a dismal 134th in points per scoring opportunity allowed (5.41), despite ranking 11th in defensive success rate. The team is currently 3–1 and projected to reach at least 8 wins thanks to a favorable upcoming schedule and elite offensive efficiency, but turnover luck (+3 margin vs. -3.7 expected) and poor special teams (132nd SP+) raise flags about their ability to compete with Notre Dame.
The Boise State Broncos Offense
Boise State’s offense has emerged as one of the most explosive in the country, ranking 3rd in marginal explosiveness and 4th in yards per successful play (14.8). The Broncos are averaging 7.07 yards per play (17th nationally), and their rushing attack is particularly potent with 6.0 yards per carry (21st) and 4.26 yards after contact per carry — the best in the FBS. Quarterback play has also been efficient, with an adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) of 11.0 (23rd) and just a 0.7% interception rate (9th). However, their red zone struggles are notable, ranking just 93rd in red zone TD rate (57.9%) and 106th in points per scoring opportunity (4.12), which could limit their ceiling against stronger defenses.
Boise State Player to Watch on Offense: QB Maddux Madsen
Madsen has led the Boise State offense in 2025 with a strong vertical passing profile, averaging an elite 14.3 yards per completion and posting a 9-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio through four starts. His adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) of 9.7 and 8.3 yards per dropback are indicative of his ability to create explosive plays, even with a moderate completion rate of 59.8%. Madsen has only taken one sack (1.5% sack rate), showing strong pocket awareness and decision-making under pressure. On the ground, he’s added value as a scrambler, rushing 15 times for 57 yards and a touchdown, with a 53.3% success rate and 0.29 missed tackles forced per attempt.
The Boise State Broncos Defense
Boise State’s defense has delivered mixed results, ranking 62nd in SP+ while allowing 5.39 yards per play (68th) and a superb 32.8% success rate (11th). The unit is opportunistic, posting a +3 turnover margin (29th nationally) and ranking top 20 in both sack rate (8.9%, 16th) and pressure rate (36.6%, 15th). However, they have struggled mightily in the red zone — allowing touchdowns on 85.7% of red zone drives (133rd) and conceding 5.41 points per scoring opportunity (also 133rd). Big plays remain a problem, as they rank dead last (131st) in marginal explosiveness allowed and 131st in yards per successful play given up (14.2).
Boise State Player to Watch on Defense: Safety Ty Benefield
Benefield is playing at an All-Mountain West level, racking up 25 total tackles with a strong 86.2% tackle rate and six total havoc plays across just three games. He’s been hyperactive against the run with a 56.0% run tackle rate and four credited run stops. Benefield has also been a factor in coverage, allowing just 75 yards on six targets (66.7% completion) while collecting an interception. His versatility is further evident with 4.5 tackles for loss, contributing to one of the highest havoc play totals on the team.
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Notre Dame TE Eli Raridon Over 36.5 Receiving Yards
Boise State has played the 128th ranked strength of schedule thus far, while Notre Dame has played the 4th toughest. ND has scored 40, 56 and 56 points against P4 opponents over the last three weeks and is playing a more than competent Boise offense that is averaging 49 PPG over their last three contests. I think Notre Dame will get out to a hot start, but Boise will score enough on ND’s vulnerable defense to keep it within 2 scores for most of the game. I like Notre Dame TE Eli Raridon to go Over his 36.5 Receiving yardage mark. He has gone for 40+ yards in three of four games this year, and ND will have to keep their foot on the gas to overcome their limping defensive unit.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Notre Dame and Boise State:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play ATS on Notre Dame -21.0.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 62.5.
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