As Freshman Bryce Underwood continues to mature under center, No. 20 Michigan (3-1) methodically continues to make their case for a Big Ten title appearance and spot in the college football playoff. Saturday, they look to continue their pursuit of both when they welcome the Badgers of Wisconsin (2-2) to The Big House.
A punishing defense is the traditional anchor of this team and this season is no exception. The Wolverines ability to wreak havoc against opposing quarterbacks has granted Underwood time to mature and become a leader on offense.
Wisconsin has struggled this season. Injuries under center are certainly the most obvious source of their issues but Head Coach Luke Fickell’s team as a whole has struggled at the outset of all four games this season…especially in their losses to Alabama and Maryland. They will drown in The Big House Saturday if they don’t hold their own early.
Lets dive into the matchup a bit deeper, look at the numbers on both sides of the ball for each school, and see what said numbers offer us in terms of a smart play or two.
Game Details and How to watch Wisconsin at Michigan
Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025
Time: 12:00PM Eastern
Site: MIchigan Stadium
City: Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: Fox
Game Odds for Wisconsin at Michigan
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Wisconsin Badgers (+600), Michigan Wolverines (-900)
Spread: Michigan -17.5 (-102)
Total: 43.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Michigan Wolverines
Head Coach: Sherrone Moore
2025 Record: 3-1
Offense Ranking: 33
Defense Ranking: 8
Strength of Schedule: 24
The 2025 Michigan Wolverines are off to a 3–1 start under head coach Sherrone Moore, ranked 15th overall in SP+ with an offense-defense split of 33rd and 8th, respectively. Offensively, Michigan is one of the most explosive rushing teams in the country, ranking 2nd nationally in yards per non-sack rush (7.0) and 19th in EPA per rush, thanks to elite trench play (9th in YPC before contact, 23rd after contact). Defensively, Wink Martindale’s unit thrives on disruption, ranking 5th in overall havoc rate, 2nd in pressure rate, and 1st nationally in passes defensed per incompletion (46.9%), while also holding opponents to just 4.24 yards per play (18th). Michigan has a projected 10–2 regular season outlook with critical matchups looming against USC and Ohio State.
The Michigan Wolverines Offense
The 2025 Michigan offense ranks 33rd in SP+ and features a devastating ground game that ranks 2nd nationally in yards per rush (7.0) and 19th in EPA per carry thanks to a mauling offensive line (9th in YPC before contact, 23rd after). The Wolverines generate big plays at a Top 20 rate, with 13.8 yards per successful play (19th) and a marginal explosiveness of 1.33 (14th), largely fueled by strong standard downs production. Despite their explosive rushing profile, the passing game lags behind, ranking just 78th in passing success rate and 63rd in EPA per dropback, with a completion rate of 56.3% (119th). Offensive line protection remains solid, allowing pressure on just 1.2% of dropbacks (15th), but overall efficiency is weighed down by a third-down conversion rate of 42% (63rd) and poor fourth-down performance (25%, 130th).
Michigan Player to Watch on Offense: QB Bryce Underwood
True freshman Bryce Underwood has shown flashes of brilliance in his first four starts, throwing for 733 yards and 2 touchdowns with an impressive 12.6 yards per completion. While his raw completion rate sits at just 56.9%, Underwood has averaged 7.6 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) and boasts a credible Total QBR of 77.3. On the ground, he’s added 185 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns at a staggering 10.28 yards per carry, with a 61.1% success rate and 44.4% first-down rate. Underwood’s ability to generate explosive plays—highlighted by 5.0 yards before contact per carry—has made him a dangerous dual-threat despite some inconsistency in the passing game, which is expected given his youth.
The Michigan Wolverines Defense
The 2025 Michigan defense ranks 8th in SP+ and continues to be the team’s anchor, thriving on havoc and elite run-stopping efficiency. They boast the 5th-best overall havoc rate (22.5%), with strong disruption at all three levels—ranking Top 25 in DL, LB, and DB havoc rates—and lead the nation in pass deflections per incompletion (46.9%). The Wolverines are especially stingy on standard downs, allowing just 4.24 yards per play (18th) and a rushing success rate of 33.1% (15th), while holding opponents to 3.5 yards per carry (14th). Their pass defense is fundamentally sound, with the 23rd-best ANY/A allowed (5.4) and 20th in INT rate (4.2%), while surrendering just 12.2 yards per successful dropback (6th), reflecting a unit that consistently limits big plays.
Michigan Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Jaishawn Barham
Jaishawn Barham has been a demon on the outside, recording 21 total tackles with a superb 91.3% tackle success rate and a 90.0% rate against the run. His disruptive ability is on full display with 6 havoc plays, including 4.5 tackles for loss and 3 sacks across four games. As a pass rusher, Barham generated 9 pressures on 40 rushes (22.5% pressure rate), ranking among the team leaders with 2 sacks created and 8 first pressures. In pass coverage, he held opponents to just 1 completion on 3 targets for 4 yards, showcasing a stingy 33.3% completion rate and a microscopic 1.3 yards per target allowed.
Wisconsin Badgers
Head Coach: Luke Fickell
2025 Record: 4-0
Offense Ranking: 89
Defense Ranking: 30
Strength of Schedule: 1
The 2025 Wisconsin Badgers sit at 2–2 under Luke Fickell, but a daunting schedule and SP+ rankings paint a bleaker picture for the rest of the season. The offense has cratered to 89th in SP+, weighed down by a glacial tempo (135th in pace), near-total lack of big play capability (125th marginal explosiveness), and rank a dismal 117th in yards per play (4.96). The defense remains competent at 30th in SP+ led by a Top 15 stuff rate (22nd) while churning out 3rd-down stops (11th in overall 3rd-down defense), though it suffers from low havoc and struggles on passing downs. With eight remaining games against SP+ Top 50 opponents and cumulative win probabilities plunging as low as 4% in some weeks, Wisconsin is projected to finish with only 4–5 wins barring major offensive improvement, which could lead to a regime change in the coaching staff.
The Wisconsin Badgers Offense
Wisconsin’s offense in 2025 ranks 89th in SP+ and is among the least explosive units in the country, sitting 125th in marginal explosiveness and 133rd in plays gaining 20+ yards. The Badgers average just 4.96 yards per play (117th) and are near the bottom nationally in adjusted pace (136th), operating one of the slowest tempos in the FBS. Their rushing game has been largely ineffective, ranking 111th in yards per carry (4.3) and 92nd in success rate, while the passing attack lacks downfield potency with a 120th-ranked explosive pass rate and just 10.8% of completions gaining 20+ yards. A middling offensive line (8th in penalties, 76th in pressures allowed), poor efficiency on standard and passing downs, minimal big plays, and bad field position (55th) have hamstrung their scoring output to just 1.77 points per drive (102nd).
Wisconsin Player to Watch on Offense: QB Danny O’Neil
True freshman quarterback Danny O’Neil has been thrown into the fire in relief of injured starter Billy Edwards, completing 70.6% of his passes for 640 yards and 5 touchdowns — but also 5 interceptions — with a modest 6.6 adjusted net yards per attempt and a 34.6 Total QBR. He’s shown a willingness to push the ball downfield (10.7 YPC) but has struggled under pressure, taking sacks on 13.3% of dropbacks and being sacked on 40.6% of his pressures. As a rusher, O’Neil is moderately effective with 138 yards on 31 attempts (4.45 YPC), including a solid 45.2% success rate and 35.5% first down rate, though over a third of his carries have been stopped for zero or negative yards. His athleticism and accuracy offer developmental upside, but turnovers and pocket awareness remain significant areas for improvement and limit his ceiling against a ferocious Michigan defensive line.
The Wisconsin Badgers Defense
Wisconsin’s defense has been the stronger unit in 2025, ranking 30th in SP+ and showing impressive metrics against the run, including a 12th-ranked 3.4 yards per carry allowed and a 22nd-ranked stuff rate of 23.5%. The Badgers excel on early downs, ranking 27th in standard down success rate and 11th in overall third-down defense, while also boasting the 4th-best third-and-medium (3–6 yards) success rate allowed (21.1%). Their red zone defense is opportunistic, ranking 4th in goal-to-go touchdown rate allowed (33.3%), but they struggle to create disruptive plays consistently, with just a 127th-ranked defensive line havoc rate and 73rd overall havoc rate. Despite these inconsistencies, Wisconsin’s defense has held opponents to just 1.70 points per drive (48th) and a respectable 25.3 yards per drive (25th), helping them remain competitive despite a sputtering offense.
Wisconsin Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Mason Reiger
Edge rusher Mason Reiger has been a disruptive presence for Wisconsin, registering 11 pressures and 2 sacks across 94 pass-rush snaps, with a solid 11.7% pressure rate and 12 first pressures. He has been productive against the run as well, recording 14 total tackles with a high 78.6% run-tackle share, 82.4% tackle efficiency, and 2 run stops. Reiger’s all-around impact is reflected in his 3.0 tackles for loss, which ties for the team lead, and 3 total havoc plays, including a forced hold that drew a penalty. His average Time to First Pressure of 2.54 seconds ranks among the fastest on the team, and he’s tied for the team lead in sacks created (2), establishing himself as the Badgers’ most consistent pass-rushing threat up front.
Wisconsin at Michigan team stats, betting trends
Michigan has won 43 of its last 45 games against teams with worse records
Michigan has covered the Spread in 4 of its last 5 games as a favorite
8 of Michigan’s last 10 home games have gone OVER the Total
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Wisconsin QB Danny O’Neil UNDER 171.5 yards passing
As detailed above, Michigan’s defensive line is terrorizing opposing signal callers with a 43% pressure rate that ranks second nationally. Danny O’Neil was knocked out of Wisconsin’s last game after taking six sacks from the Maryland defense, but with QB Billy Edwards also injured, 3rd-stringer Hunter Simmons was forced into service. O’Neil has already struggled mightily and has thrown five interceptions in limited action. Inexperience, poor pocket command, a top-flight Michigan rush and a pre-existing injury make O’Neil’s 171.5 passing yardage mark a strong Under play.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Wisconsin and Michigan:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Wisconsin Badgers at +17.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 42.5.
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