Saturday night at The Horseshoe the top-ranked Buckeyes of Ohio State (4-0) host the Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-0).
With its top wins to date this season coming at California and at home against Rutgers, this is an obvious step up in class for the Golden Gophers. Last week the Buckeyes took care of the Washington Huskies in Seattle to remain perfect on the young season.
Each of these teams is methodical on offense and so expect possessions to be at a premium in this Big Ten contest.
Lets take a deeper dive into the teams, their strengths and their weaknesses and perhaps find a sweat or two along the way.
Game Details and How to watch Minnesota at Ohio State
Date: Saturday, October 4th, 2025
Time: 7:30PM Eastern
Site: Ohio Stadium
City: Columbus, OH
TV/Streaming: NBC/Peacock
Game Odds for Minnesota at Ohio State
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Minnesota Golden Gophers (+1200), Ohio State Buckeyes (-2400)
Spread: Ohio State -23.5 (-112)
Total: 43.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Lets dive into each team and find a bet or two for this blockbuster.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Head Coach: Ryan Day
2025 Record: 4-0
Offense Ranking: 16
Defense Ranking: 12
Strength of Schedule: 27
Ohio State has opened its 2025 season with a 4–0 record behind the nation’s No. 2 SP+ defense and a hyper-efficient offense that ranks Top 5 nationally in success rate, completion rate, and points per drive. Quarterback play behind Julian Sayin has been elite, as the Buckeyes lead the country in passing success rate (63.7%) and adjusted completion percentage (85.2%) while taking sacks on just 1.8% of dropbacks. Defensively, they’ve dominated in key areas—allowing just 3.99 yards per play (8th), ranking 1st in points per scoring opportunity (2.20), and generating the 4th-best sack rate in the country. Despite playing at a certifiably methodical tempo (134th in pace), Ohio State boasts a +30.8 scoring margin and has a 63.8% chance to reach the College Football Playoff per SP+.
The Ohio State Buckeyes Offense
Ohio State’s offense ranks 16th nationally in SP+ and is built on ruthless efficiency, boasting a 55.9% success rate (4th), the top completion rate in the country (77.8%), and an elite 12.0 ANY/A. The Buckeyes dominate early downs with a 58.3% standard down success rate (9th) and rarely get behind the sticks, with just 18.4% of plays gaining zero or negative yards (2nd). Despite operating at the 134th pace nationally, the Buckeyes average 7.28 yards per play (12th) and score 5.52 points per scoring opportunity (12th). Their offensive line has allowed pressure on just 0.7% of dropbacks (3rd), giving their high efficiency passing game ample time to exploit defenses.
Buckeye to Watch on Offense: QB Julian Sayin
The sophomore signal caller has commanded the Buckeyes’ offense with efficiency and poise through his first four starts, completing 78.8% of his passes for 987 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He ranks among the nation’s best in completion percentage, yards per attempt (12.7), adjusted net yards per attempt (10.5), and total QBR (82.2). Sayin has thrived on early-down efficiency, posting a 60.6% success rate while taking sacks on just 2.0% of his dropbacks. Though his mobility remains limited (8 carries for 10 yards, 40% of rushes for loss), his elite downfield accuracy and ball placement have powered Ohio State’s explosive aerial attack.
The Ohio State Buckeyes Defense
Ohio State’s defense ranks 2nd nationally in SP+ bolstered by their #1 points-per-drive allowed (0.52) and a -0.25 EPA/play (2nd) ranking. The Buckeyes are dominant against the pass, allowing just 4.3 yards per dropback (11th), holding quarterbacks to a 33.9% success rate (24th), and conceding explosive plays on only 3.5% of snaps (6th). Their pass rush ranks 4th in sack rate (11.0%) and 12th in pressure rate (37.3%), with Top 15 marks in both sack-per-pressure and havoc rate. In the red zone, they’ve been perfect with opponents going 0-for-12 in red zone touchdown opportunities and the defense ranking 1st in both red zone and goal-to-go TD rate. New DC Matt Patricia has maintained OSU’s first-rate level of play defensively.
Buckeye Player to Watch on Defense: S Caleb Downs
The junior has been a disruptive force on the back end of the Buckeyes’ defense, posting 17 total tackles (9 solo) with an 81.0% tackle rate and three run stops across three games. He has generated three havoc plays, including 2.0 tackles for loss, and added an interception to his stat line while not allowing a touchdown in coverage. In pass defense, he’s been targeted just five times, holding opponents to two receptions for only two yards (0.4 yards per target) with a defensive QBR allowed of just 3.4. Downs’ combination of reliable tackling, splash plays behind the line, and elite coverage metrics makes him a no-doubt first round NFL Draft prospect.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Head Coach: PJ Fleck
2025 Record: 4-0
Offense Ranking: 61
Defense Ranking: 19
Strength of Schedule: 13
The 2025 Minnesota Golden Gophers are leaning on a stingy defense and a slow, methodical offense to grind out wins in Big Ten play. Minnesota ranks just 77th in Offensive SP+ due to a glacial pace (124th in seconds per play), minimal explosiveness (97th in 20+ yard play rate), and a red zone touchdown rate that ranks 94th nationally. However, the defense has been outstanding, ranking 21st in SP+ and Top 15 in both yards per play (4.18) and rushing yards allowed (3.1), while also ranking 3rd in sack rate (11.2%) and 11th in overall havoc rate. Their projected record sits at 7–5, with critical swing games remaining against Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Wisconsin that could determine whether PJ Fleck’s squad reaches eight wins.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers Offense
Minnesota’s 2025 offense is built on efficiency over explosiveness, ranking 28th in success rate but just 93rd in marginal explosiveness and 97th in 20+ yard play rate. The Gophers are one of the slowest-paced teams in the nation (124th in seconds per play) and run at the 125th adjusted tempo, preferring to grind out drives behind a steady 46.4% rushing success rate and a 51.1% passing success rate. Their biggest offensive flaws come in the red zone—ranking 94th in RZ TD rate—and on fourth down, where they convert just 28.6% of attempts (125th nationally). Despite solid pass protection (only 2.4% pressures allowed) and a diverse target distribution including a Top 10 rate of throws to running backs (27.5%), the offense’s lack of explosive plays limits its overall ceiling.
Golden Gopher to Watch on Offense: QB Drake Lindsey
The freshman signal caller has been a steady presence under center for Minnesota, completing 65.8% of his passes for 958 yards and a 7-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio across four starts. He’s shown solid efficiency with 12.4 yards per completion and a 52.8% success rate, while managing pressure well, taking sacks on 4.1% of dropbacks. Lindsey averages 7.6 yards per dropback and holds an 8.7 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), with a Total QBR of 66.8. Though he’s contributed a rushing touchdown, his -0.67 yards per carry and -4.67 yards before contact highlight limited mobility and a high percentage of negative rushes (62.5%).
The Minnesota Golden Golden Gophers Defense
Minnesota’s defense profiles as one of the Big Ten’s most efficient units, ranking 21st in SP+, powered by Top 20 showings in both success rate (18th) and yards per play allowed (15th). The Gophers are elite at limiting rushing efficiency—ranking 1st in EPA per rush allowed, 6th in YPC allowed (3.1), and 7th in stuff rate—while also fielding one of the nation’s best pass rush units, placing 3rd nationally in both sack rate (11.2%) and sacks per pressure. Defensive explosiveness has been an area of concern (47th in marginal explosiveness allowed), but they’ve generated havoc across all levels ranking 11th in overall havoc rate with Top 10 DL disruption. However, a weakness in red zone execution (104th red zone TD rate allowed) and a reliance on zone coverage that yields 7.6 YPA (100th) present vulnerabilities for a highly efficient team like Ohio State to potentially exploit.
Golden Gopher to Watch on Defense: Edge Anthony Smith
The lineman has emerged as a premier edge threat, leading the team with 4.5 sacks and 7 total pressures across 64 pass rush snaps. His 10.9% pressure rate and 2 sacks created highlight a consistent ability to pester opposing signal callers, while his 6 havoc plays (tied for most on the team) underscore his impact beyond just sack totals. He has also been a dependable play stopper, converting all of his opportunities for a perfect 100.0% tackle rate and adding 4.5 tackles for loss. Smith’s balance of production, efficiency, and disruption make him one of the ascending Big Ten pass rushers.
Golden Gophers vs. Buckeyes team stats, betting trends
Ohio State has gone 9-1 in its last 10 games
Ohio State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games as a favorite
The Over was 5-4 in Ohio State’s home games last season
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Ohio State WR Brandon Innis OVER his very reasonable 16.5 Receiving Yards
Ohio State has proven that they will play the same three receivers (J. Smith/Tate/Inniss) all game long until the Buckeyes are up 3+ scores in the fourth quarter. WR Brandon Inniss has proven to be the team’s preferred slot option when they deploy 3 wide receiver sets. Carnell Tate excelled in the rotational WR3 role last year, and it’s Inniss’ turn to take advantage of artificially low yardage totals now that OSU is in Big Ten play. I’m backing Inniss to go Over his very reasonable 16.5 Receiving Yards line.
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Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Golden Gophers and Buckeyes:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Minnesota Golden Gophers at +23.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 43.5.
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