Nigeria is pumping more crude and drilling harder than it has in years, thanks to reforms under President Bola Tinubu that are finally coaxing cash back into the upstream. Daily output has climbed to between 1.7 and 1.83 million barrels, while active rigs surged from 31 in January to 50 by mid-year, Minister of State for Petroleum Heineken Lokpobiri told delegates at Africa Energy Week.
The turnaround is pinned on the “Project One Million Barrels” initiative and the long-delayed Petroleum Industry Act, which the government insists has created a predictable playing field for investors. Lokpobiri pointed to over $5.5 billion in fresh investment decisions tied to asset divestments by IOCs—moves he said are adding some 200,000 bpd to national production. Nigeria, he declared, is “open for business.”
But problems persist downstream. The country’s crown jewel refinery—Aliko Dangote’s $20 billion, 650,000-bpd plant in Lagos—is mired in strikes, sabotage claims, and financial headaches. Earlier this week, Nigeria’s top oil union launched a nationwide walkout after 800 refinery workers were sacked for alleged “acts of sabotage.” Dangote insists he’s rooting out bad actors; unions say he’s firing organizers. The strike has already shuttered offices at NNPC and key regulators, raising fears it could spill over into production if not resolved.
Even before the labor brawl, the refinery was under pressure. Dangote has admitted to reselling crude cargoes and halting local fuel sales as currency distortions made operations unprofitable. Buying crude in dollars and selling fuel in a weakening naira is a recipe for red ink, and calls for government-backed import bans have underscored just how fragile the model is.
Nigeria’s oil reforms may be luring rigs back to the delta, but if its refining dream continues to falter, the paradox remains: a top global crude exporter still at risk of shortages at home.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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