By Ibe Wada

Copyright bizwatchnigeria

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.23 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter of 2025, according to figures released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The performance exceeded the 3.48 per cent growth recorded in the same period of 2024 and marked an improvement from the 3.13 per cent reported in the first quarter of 2025. The NBS said the estimates were based on a rebased GDP series using 2019 as the new reference year, a move it said aligned quarterly data with the country’s economic realities.

According to the report, the economy’s nominal value stood at N100.73 trillion in Q2 2025, up from N84.48 trillion a year earlier, representing a 19.23 per cent increase. Growth was largely driven by the oil sector, which rebounded strongly as average daily crude oil production rose to 1.68 million barrels per day, compared with 1.41 million barrels per day in the same quarter of 2024.

The oil sector recorded a real growth of 20.46 per cent, lifting its contribution to 4.05 per cent of GDP, while mining and quarrying also expanded by 20.86 per cent. However, the non-oil sector remained dominant, contributing 95.95 per cent of total output with a 3.64 per cent growth rate. Key drivers included agriculture, telecommunications, finance, construction, and energy services.

Labour Unions Challenge Data

Despite the upbeat numbers, organised labour questioned the credibility and relevance of the figures to the daily realities of Nigerians. Senior officials of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), who spoke on condition of anonymity, described the report as “growth without development.”

“If the figure does not translate into better living conditions, then it is meaningless,” one NLC official said. “Workers are suffering, unemployment is far higher than four per cent, and yet officials are claiming the economy is growing. Statistics that fail to reflect reality are useless.”

Another NLC leader dismissed the reported unemployment rate as “a construct of neoliberalism to mask the impact of failed policies,” insisting that joblessness and hardship remain widespread.

Efforts to obtain comments from the President of the Trade Union Congress, Mr. Festus Osifo, were unsuccessful as he did not respond to requests.

Private Sector Voices Concerns

Operators in the organised private sector (OPS) also expressed mixed feelings. While acknowledging the headline growth, they warned that the benefits were not reaching households or small businesses.

The President of the Association of Small Business Owners, Dr. Femi Egbesola, said the growth figures masked “red flags” in the manufacturing and trade sectors.

“GDP is growing, but it is not being felt in households or in smaller enterprises,” he said. “If the real sector collapses, it will worsen hardship despite impressive macroeconomic statistics.”

Similarly, the National Vice President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, Mr. Segun Kuti-George, stressed that real sector growth should be the benchmark for progress. “Growth in services is welcome, but without robust performance in manufacturing and industry, the economy cannot deliver meaningful prosperity,” he said.

Expert View

Commenting on the figures, economist and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr. Muda Yusuf, described the second-quarter results as “a sign of recovery.”

“The GDP numbers point to the fact that the economy is on a recovery path. In Q1, we had 3.13 percent; in Q2, it has risen to 4.23 percent. That is remarkable, and it shows that some of the government’s policies are beginning to take effect,” Yusuf said.

Policy Context

The latest data comes amid calls from policymakers for higher growth levels. Earlier in July, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, stated that Nigeria must sustain a growth rate of at least seven percent annually to significantly reduce poverty and improve living standards.

“As much as GDP growth is encouraging, what matters most is ensuring it translates into development for the poorest and most vulnerable,” Edun said.