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Nigerian Exports Gain Weight Despite Headwinds – Analysts

AnyFans 2025-10-06

By Sylvester Enoghase

LAGOS – Nigerian exports gained weight despite headwinds, analysts have said.

They disclosed that Nigeria total trade increased by 6.0% y/y to USD24.15 billion (Q2-24: USD22.78 billion) in US dollar terms, supported by the rise in total exports (+13.4% y/y to USD14.44 billion), amid the decline in total imports (-3.4% y/y to USD9.70 billion).

According to them, the trade surplus will expand further in 2025FY largely underpinned by higher volumes of natural gas and refined petroleum products.

“Given the increase in domestic refining activities outweighed the rise in non-oil imports (+18.3% y/y), which was buoyed by improved foreign exchange liquidity and consumer demand”, they said.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), recent trade report indicated that total foreign trade rose by 20.1% y/y to NGN38.04 trillion in Q2-25 (Q2- 24: NGN31.68 trillion | Q1-25: NGN36.02 trillion).

Analysts from Cordros Securities, said the total foreign trade increase reflects currency translation effects from the naira depreciation

According to them, the trade balance increased by 76.0% y/y to USD4.74 billion (Q2-24: USD2.69 billion), given the faster increase in exports and the decline in imports

“We highlight that part of this increase reflects currency translation effects from the naira depreciation (-11.7% y/y to NGN1,575.27/USD in Q2-25 vs Q2- 24: NGN1,390.92/USD).

Specifically, total trade increased by 6.0% y/y to USD24.15 billion (Q2-24: USD22.78 billion) in US dollar terms, supported by the rise in total exports (+13.4% y/y to USD14.44 billion), amid the decline in total imports (-3.4% y/y to USD9.70 billion).

“We attribute the increase in total exports to the rise in other oil exports (+86.5% y/y) and non-oil exports (+37.1% y/y) despite the decline in crude oil exports (-16.2% y/y), which was driven by lower crude oil prices (Q2- 25: USD66.71/bbl vs Q2-24: USD84.94/ bbl). On the other hand, the slowdown in imports was due to the decline in petroleum imports (-33.9% y/y), given the increase in domestic refining activities

‘We expect exports to sustain strong momentum, largely underpinned by higher volumes of natural gas and refined petroleum products. On the other hand, import growth should remain contained, as the continued decline in petroleum product imports—driven by expanding domestic refining capacity—offsets the impact of higher non-oil imports’.

Nonye Ayeni, the Executive Director/Chief Executive Officer of the NEPC, in a chat with Daily Independent, said the non-oil exports boom, hit $3.2bn in six months — Nigeria’s non-oil exports soared to $3.225bn in the first half of 2025, marking yet another milestone in the sector’s growth, the Nigerian Export Promotion Council announced on Sunday.

This figure, according to Ayeni, represents a 19.59 per cent increase over the 2024. $2.696bn recorded in the same period of

She said the volume of goods shipped abroad also rose to 4.04 million metric tonnes from 3.83 million metric tonnes in the first half of last year, driven by strong global demand for Nigerian commodities from emerging markets such as India, Brazil, Vietnam, and other African countries.

Ayeni said the non-oil report was a comprehensive overview of the council’s achievements, challenges, and prospects, as Nigeria gradually moves towards the close of 2025.

“I am pleased to inform you that non-oil products exported in the first half of 2025 were valued at $3.225bn. This shows an increase of 19.59 per cent as against the sum of $2.696bn recorded for the first half of the year 2024”, she said

An executive director of a new generation bank , told Daily Independent that the trade report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS),indicated total foreign trade rise of 20.1% y/y to NGN38.04 trillion in Q2-25 (Q2-24: NGN31.68 trillion from Q1-25: NGN36.02 trillion).

The banker noted that part of this increase reflects currency translation effects from the naira depreciation (-11.7% y/y to NGN1,575.27/USD in Q2- 25 vs Q2-24: NGN1,390.92/USD).

Segun Ajayi-Kadir, Director General of Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), told Daily Independent that manufacturers are genuinely concerned the future of the Nigerian economy highly depends on its capacity to upscale production, improve export of manufactured products and enhance steady inflow of foreign exchange and investment.

According to him, total trade by NBS recent report indicated an increase by 6.0% y/y to USD24.15 billion (Q2-24: USD22.78 billion) in US dollar terms, supported by the rise in total exports (+13.4% y/y to USD14.44 billion), amid the decline in total imports (-3.4% y/y to USD9.70 billion).

“Of course, this can only be actualised if the challenges limiting the performance of the sector are frontally addressed with appropriate interventions, as no economy can achieve steady growth and sustained development without a functional and highly productive manufacturing sector.

“We are optimistic that stronger non-oil export receipts and reduced incentives for speculative positioning should reinforce the positive momentum and suggest a more balanced foreign exchange market outlook”.

Mr. Adewale Oyerinde , Director General of Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA), told Daily Independent that the Nigerian export sector is faced with challenges of navigating macroeconomic instability, inflationary pressures, and policy-driven disruptions.

He noted that the real GDP growth remained subdued, reflecting the economy’s struggle with rising production costs, exchange rate volatility, and declining consumer demand, while the aggressive monetary tightening by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which raised the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 27.50 percent, further exacerbated borrowing costs for manufacturers, limiting expansion and new investments.

“We are hopeful that prospective portfolio inflows are likely to benefit from the dovish shift in global monetary policy and the accompanying decline in treasury yields, which could enhance investor appetite for naira-denominated assets.