By Rachael Burford

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Nigel Farage is on course to become Britain’s prime minister following a collapse in the Conservative and Labour vote, a new poll has predicted.

The seat-by-seat survey by YouGov suggests if an election were held tomorrow Reform UK would win 311 MPs, while Labour would take 144 seats – a loss of 267 MPs compared to Sir Keir Starmer’s landslide win last year.

The Liberal Democrats would have 78 seats, Conservatives 45, the SNP 37 and Greens seven. Plaid Cymru would win six, while three seats would be won by left-wing independents, including Jeremy Corbyn’s Islington North constituency, the poll predicts.

This would result in a hung parliament with Reform UK winning 311 of the 650 seats available – 15 short of an overall majority of 326.

The YouGov MRP poll was based on a 13,000 sample taken over the last three weeks.

London appears to be the only English region where Sir Keir’s party would retain the majority of the seats won in 2024.

More than a third of Labour’s remaining UK seats would be in the capital, making them more reliant on the city than any other British party.

Reform would pick up six seats London seats. The poll suggests Romford, Hornchurch and Upminster, Dagenham and Rainham, Old Bexley and Sidcup, Bexleyheath and Crayford and Health Secretary Wes Streeting’s constituency of Ilford North would all return Reform MPs.

Among the other cabinet minister casualties would be Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy and Angela Rayner, according to the survey.

The Conservatives could be pushed into becoming Britain’s fourth largest party, losing two-thirds of the 121 seats won last year, which was already its worst result in their 190-year modern history.

The poll predicts the party would suffer its worst election result since the formation of its predecessor party, the Tory Party in the 1670s.

Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, James Cleverly and Mel Stride would be among the casualties, the survey suggests, as almost 60% of their current front bench would lose their seats.

If the results happened, the Conservatives could form a coalition with Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid, SNP, progressive left and Northern Ireland MPs to vote down Government led by Mr Farage premiership.

However, this is highly unlikely in practice. If the Tories abstained, Mr Farage would still have enough MPs to become prime minister.