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Welcome to the latest edition of the Newsweek Sports Betting newsletter, which you can start receiving in your inbox by subscribing here. Right now, here's what your free subscription entails: *Weekly look at college basketball (every Monday evening) Weekly look at the NBA (every Tuesday evening) College football weekend preview (every Thursday evening) NFL weekend preview (every Friday morning) College Football ATS picks (every Saturday morning at 10 a.m. ET) NFL ATS picks (every Sunday morning at 10 a.m. ET) *Starting Monday, November 3. This morning's edition is available below, to subscribers only. At some point during the 2024 football season, it became clear that backing the favorites to cover was a recipe for success, even if you did so blindly. This year, after a reasonably unpredictable September -- at one point, the Chiefs were 0-2, the Cardinals were 2-0, the Ravens were 1-5, the Steelers were 4-1 and the Jaguars were 4-1 -- things got incredibly chalky in Week 8. Will regular-season NFL action this November and December once again belong to the betting favorites? Or was last week's 11-2 ATS record by favorites just a one-off? I don't know the answer to that question, but below, I'll explain why I expect the Chargers, Colts and Rams to all not only win, but cover today. I swear that I don't enjoy giving out three favorites, but I'd rather be chalky than wrong after last week's brutal showing. First, ICYMI, click here to read my midweek takes on all 14 games this weekend. Thanks to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, we're off to a good start this weekend. Colts (-3.5) at Steelers -- 1 p.m. (CBS) Babbling about the Colts (7-1) being a lock could be a great way to jinx them, but I'm going to do it anyway. Halfway into the season, you'd think the "secret" would be out on a team that has been as excellent as Indianapolis. In addition to boasting the best record in the NFL, the Colts also have easily the best point differential in the league at +116. But oddsmakers continue to view the Colts as merely one of the better teams in the AFC, as opposed to the best one. Case in point: DraftKings lists the Chiefs at +240 to win the AFC, folowed by both the Colts and the Bills at exactly +400. More importantly, today's line for Indy's trip to Pittsburgh (4-3) sells Daniel Jones at Co. short, IMO, especially against an opponent that just got torched by the Bengals and the Packers. The latter exploded for 454 yards and 35 points despite a 7-point first half last Sunday night. There are still plenty of big names on the defensive side of the football for Mike Tomlin. This unit has nevertheless underwhelmed, to put it nicely, and the team as a whole has not looked good against quality opposition, falling to the Seahawks and the Packers by at least 10 points apiece. The pedigree of the Steelers franchise is undeniable. That won't help this aging defense bottle up Jonathan Taylor today, though. And if and when Indy builds a lead and Aaron Rodgers gets stuck in obvious passing situations, I don't see that going well for the former Packers star, who was sacked three times last Sunday night Pick: Colts -3.5 (best odds: -105 at FanDuel) Chargers (-10) at Titans -- 1 p.m. (CBS) I'm high on the Chargers (5-3) again after their dominant win over the Vikings on TNF in Week 8. With Joe Alt back at tackle, the L.A. offense had its best game in weeks. Justin Herbert and the Chargers should be able to move the ball at ease again today, as Tennessee will be without its top defender, DL Jeffery Simmons. The Titans (1-7) have struggled with Simmons on the field, so I can't imagine a strong showing by this defense with No. 98 on the sideline. Tennessee will also be without top receiver Calvin Ridley as well as starting safety Xavier Woods and linebacker Arden Key. This one's not complicated -- the Chargers should roll. I'm even more confident considering the way Tennessee finished against New England and Indianapolis the last two weeks, getting outscored a combined 35-7 in the second halves of those games. Also worth noting, the line is on the move this morning, with some books currently listing the Chargers at -10.5. Translation: the time to hop on this is now. Pick: Chargers -10 (best odds: -112 at DK) Saints at Rams (-14) -- 4:05 p.m. (FOX) The Rams (5-2) have already notched several convicing wins this year, and I expect another one today over the Saints (1-7). Spencer Rattler was not playing excellent football for New Orleans, but I don't think he was the problem, and I hate this matchup for rookie Tyler Shough. The Rams are an excellent pass-rushing team, and we've seen little from Shough to convince us he's a legit NFL starter. I promise to eat crow here next week if Shough lights the world on fire today, but I'm confident predicting that won't happen. The Rams are coming off a bye, and they were last seen beating up on Trevor Lawrence and the Jags from start to finish in a 35-7 blowout back in Week 7. At home, with Puka Nacua likely back, this has a great chance to be a laugher. Pick: Rams -14 (best odds: -115 at DraftKings) Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the sportsbook operator's terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.
