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Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! It's the day before Halloween, which means I will be spending the next 24 hours getting mentally prepped to hand out candy tomorrow night. My prepping will involve buying a bottle of vodka, nine bags of Raisinets and 14 bags of good candy. The vodka will be for me, the Raisinets will be for anyone who shows up without a costume and the good candy will be for everyone else. Now that I have Halloween figured out, it's time to start focusing on tonight and the return of Lamar Jackson! The Ravens star is expected to be back on the field for Baltimore's game against the Dolphins. In today's newsletter, we'll make some picks for the game, plus we'll share our midseason award votes As always, here's your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Let's get to the rundown. 1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Ravens at Dolphins After missing three games due to a hamstring injury, Lamar Jackson is finally expected to make his return to the field tonight. It's just in time for the 2-5 Ravens, who need to quickly turn things around if they want to have a chance to win the AFC North. The Ravens are going to be desperate for a win, but so are the Dolphins, who are sitting at 2-6. The Dolphins are coming off a dominant 34-10 win over the Falcons, and we'll see if they can carry any of that momentum into tonight's game. The Dolphins are 7.5-point underdogs, but that likely won't faze them since they're 7-0-1 against the spread in Tua Tagovailoa's last eight starts as an underdog of six points or more (3-5 straight-up). Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game: Why the Ravens can win: This has the potential to be a huge night for both Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. The two Ravens stars will be facing a defense that hasn't been able to stop the run this year. The Dolphins are giving up an average of 145 yards per game, which is the fifth-most in the NFL. Since Henry signed with the team in 2024, the Ravens are 11-3 when they rush for at least 170 yards, and there's a good chance they'll be able to hit that number tonight. With Jackson back on the field, it could be an explosive night for the Ravens' offense. Why the Dolphins can win: The Dolphins might be a huge underdog, but this is certainly a winnable game. One reason the Ravens are 2-5 is because their defense has been so bad this year. The Ravens are giving up an average of 250.9 passing yards per game, which is the fifth-most in the NFL. That's something Tagovailoa and the Dolphins' offense should be able to take advantage of. Although the Dolphins are just 2-6, four of their past five games have been decided by one score, so they've been able to keep things close. If Tagovailoa can get the passing game going and the Dolphins don't turn the ball over -- the Ravens are 0-4 this season in games in which they DON'T force a turnover -- then Miami might be able to pull off the upset. You can get a full preview of the game from Zach Pereles. If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props (odds via BetMGM): ONE QB PROP I LIKE: Tua Tagovailoa over 222.5 passing and rushing yards (-115): Although Tagovailoa is averaging just 189.8 yards per game this season, I think he can hit this number for two reasons. For one, the Ravens have one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL, and if the Dolphins are going to win, they're going to need him to take advantage of that. Also, with Jackson back, the Ravens will likely score a lot of points, and if Baltimore turns this into a shootout, the Dolphins are going to have to throw the ball to keep up. ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Tyler Loop OVER 1.5 field goals (-125): In the four games Jackson has started this year, Loop hit at least two field goals in three of them, and I like his chances of doing that again. With Jackson running the show, the Ravens' offense should be able to move the ball, which should create several field goal opportunities for Loop. Also, the Dolphins are giving up an average of 2.3 field goals per game, tied for second-most in the NFL. If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 19-17 (8-8 on kicker props and 11-9 on all other props). Now, it's time for some picks. PICKS FOR 'TNF' Pete Prisco's pick: Ravens 27-17 over Dolphins Tyler Sullivan's pick: Ravens 33-20 over Dolphins My pick: Ravens 30-20 over Dolphins We've got some more picks over on our CBSSports.com predictions page. 2. NFL midseason awards: Jonathan Taylor wins two awards Now that the NFL has a 17-game season, I'm not exactly sure when the halfway point of the year is, but we're going to pretend it's today and hand out some midseason awards. We rounded up 14 CBS Sports writers and had them vote on multiple awards. One interesting thing about this season is that for the first time in forever, almost every award feels wide open. Let's take a look at how four of the biggest awards turned out in our vote: MVP 1. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (7 votes) 2. Patriots QB Drake Maye (4 votes) 3. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (3 votes) Offensive Player of the Year 1. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (11 votes) 2. Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (2 votes) 3. Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield (1 vote) Offensive Rookie of the Year 1. Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka (9) 2. Colts TE Tyler Warren (3) 3. Giants QB Jaxson Dart (2) Coach of the Year 1. Shane Steichen, Colts (11) 2. Mike Vrabel, Patriots (3) The Colts dominated our midseason vote, but if they take a step back during the second half of the season, that could change how we view these awards at the end of the year. Anyway, we also voted for several other awards, and if you want to see how that turned out, you can see our full story here. We also have a midseason All-Rookie Team that you can check out here. 3. NFL Week 9 picks: Bills shock Chiefs, Raiders stun Jaguars I spent three hours badgering Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani and Tyler Sullivan for their Week 9 picks, and I finally have them in my hand to share with you. Last week, Prisco put us to shame by going 10-3 with his picks, and I do mean put us to shame, because I am never more shamed than I am when I lose to Prisco at anything. Anyway, if you're new here, here's how things work: I'll give you one Week 9 pick from each writer and then link you to the rest of their picks for the week. That way, if you like their pick, you can click over and check out all their Week 9 selections. If you hate it, you can ignore the rest and move on with your life. Pete Prisco -- Bills (+2) 35-34 over Chiefs. "This is the game of the week. The Chiefs have won three straight, while the Bills blew out Carolina last week coming off their bye. The Buffalo running game clicked last week, but they will need more from Josh Allen in this one. I think they get it as Allen wins a shootout with Patrick Mahomes. This game will live up to the billing." Prisco's full Week 9 picks are here. Tyler Sullivan -- Raiders (+3) 23-20 over Jaguars. "Geno Smith hasn't been good in 2025, but he's also been playing somewhat with one hand tied behind his back with tight end Brock Bowers limited since Week 1 due to a knee injury. Bowers, along with wideout Jakobi Meyers, are expected to be back this week, which should give the Raiders' passing attack some juice, particularly against a Jags defense that is surrendering 245.7 passing yards per game (27th in the NFL)." Sullivan's full Week 9 picks are here. Jordan Dajani -- Seahawks (+3) 28-23 over Commanders. "Washington has 'home field advantage' in this matchup, but that's not really a thing with the Seahawks. Seattle is 3-0 on the road this season, and 9-0 on the road dating back to last year. Both of Seattle's two losses this year have come at home! This Seahawks team is for real, as they rank fifth in points per game (27.6) and seventh in points allowed per game (19.4). .. Seattle has won and covered in five out of its last six games, so I'm rolling with the Seahawks." Dajani's full slate of picks will be released on Friday. John Breech -- Colts (-3) 41-24 over Steelers. "The Colts have the best offense in the NFL and the Steelers have one of the worst defenses. That's all I need to know to make a pick in this game. I expect Indy to roll to a blowout win." You can find the rest of my Week 9 picks here. For more Week 9 NFL picks, you can check out our CBSSports.com picks page. 4. NFL Week 9 upset alert: 3 favorites who could go down There are upsets every week in the NFL, but the hard part is trying to figure out where those upsets are going to happen. If there's anyone out there who knows how to sniff out an upset, it's Tyler Sullivan, so we asked him to come up with a list of teams that should be on upset alert this week. Let's check out three games where we might get an upset: Cardinals (+3) over Cowboys. Kyler Murray is slated to return in Week 9 after being sidelined for the Cardinals' previous two games due to a foot injury. That's great news for Arizona as Murray is unbeatable when he's in Dallas. Literally. The Cardinals quarterback and Texas native is 9-0 in his football life at AT&T Stadium, ranging from high school, college, and the NFL. Bengals (+2.5) over Bears. The Bengals defense is bad, and just allowed Justin Fields and the previously winless New York Jets to drop 39 points against them in Week 8. With that in mind, it's not surprising to see them as home dogs. However, it's flown a bit under the radar how poorly Caleb Williams has been playing in recent weeks. He's gone back-to-back games with zero passing touchdowns and one interception. Even worse, he has a league-low 16% off-target rate on his throws this season despite having the longest average time to throw (3.21 seconds). If that persists in Week 9, Cincinnati's defense may get some gifts that could help push the club to a win. Broncos (+1.5) over Texans. The Broncos are tied for fifth in the league in pressure rate and lead the NFL with 36 sacks on the year, which is 10 more than any other team. If Denver continues that stellar pace, C.J. Stroud could be thrown off his game, which could put the Texans' offense back into neutral. Check out Sullivan's full list of possible upsets for Week 9. 5. NFL hot seat rankings: Coaches who could lose their job soon With the NFL season officially heading into November this weekend, now seems like a good time to get our thermometer out so we can measure which coach has the hottest seat in the NFL. The last time we checked in to see who had the hottest seat in the league, Brian Callahan was at the top of the list. He got fired a week later. So who could be next? It's a guy who's coaching tonight. Let's check out who's sitting on the hottest seat heading into Week 9 (rankings by Jeff Kerr): 1. Mike McDaniel (Dolphins). Miami blew Atlanta out in a win that the Dolphins needed to prove that their coach didn't lose the locker room. So, is McDaniel off the hot seat? Not even close with home games against the Ravens (Week 9) and Bills (Week 10) coming up. The Dolphins will then head to Spain in Week 11 to play Washington before getting a bye in Week 11. If Miami goes 0-3 in this stretch, that could be the end for McDaniel. 2. Brian Daboll (Giants). Can Jaxson Dart even save Daboll's job at this rate? The Giants have struggled since their shocking win over the Eagles in Week 6, blowing an 18-point lead at the Broncos with six minutes left -- then getting blown out by the Eagles just 17 days after they defeated Philadelphia. ... 4. Zac Taylor (Bengals). Taylor said that he wants to see accountability from the leaders on the team, yet the biggest one is the coach, who is 5-33-1 in his career without Burrow (.141 win percentage). The Bengals just can't win when Burrow is out. Defense be damned, Taylor is the constant. Cincinnati had to beat New York in an AFC North that's there for the taking. The Bengals couldn't do it. This week against the Bears is a must-win game with the Steelers coming after the bye week. There are five total coaches on Kerr's list, which you can see here. 6. Extra points: Eagles make trade with Jets It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. Eagles add corner in trade with Jets. The Eagles add some depth in the secondary on Wednesday by acquiring cornerback Michael Carter II from the Jets. The Eagles are also getting a 2027 seventh-round pick in a deal that will see Philadelphia send wideout John Metchie III and a 2027 sixth-round pick to the Jets. We graded the trade, and if you want to know who won, be sure to check out our story here. Aidan Hutchinson lands record-setting contract. The Lions' star pass-rusher won't be leaving Detroit anytime soon. Hutchinson has agreed to terms on a four-year, $180 million extension that will pay him $45 million per year. The deal includes $141 million in guaranteed money, which is the most ever for a non-quarterback. We've got the full details on the extension here. J.J. McCarthy expected to start this week. The Vikings QB hasn't played since injuring his ankle in Week 2, but it appears that he's finally healthy enough to return to the field. McCarthy was a full participant at practice on Wednesday and is expected to be the starter for Minnesota's NFC North showdown with the Lions this week. Terry McLaurin ruled out for Sunday. The Washington Commanders just can't catch a break. After missing more than a month, McLaurin returned to the lineup in Week 8, but he re-injured his quad. Now, he won't be able to play in Week 9 against the Seahawks. The only good news for the Commanders is that Jayden Daniels is on track to play this week. You can read more about Washington's injuries here.
