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Warning: This is going to be a bit of a light weekend for NFL fans, especially compared to the last few weeks. Week 8 features no Sunday morning matchup, only one Monday Night Football game, and just four total matchups between two teams that are currently .500 or better: Vikings (3-3) at Chargers (4-3) Bills (4-2) at Panthers (4-3) Cowboys (3-3-1) at Broncos (5-2) Packers (4-1-1) at Steelers (4-2) This is also the first week of the 2025 campaign that will feature more than four teams on the bye. This weekend, the Lions, Raiders, Rams, Cardinals, Seahawks and Jaguars are all idle. Early NFL ATS Picks YTD Record: 60-48 Week 1: 7-9 Week 2: 9-7 Week 3: 9-7 Week 4: 6-10 Week 5: 8-6 Week 6: 10-5 Week 7: 11-4 All odds below via DraftKings; all kickoff times EDT Vikings at Chargers (-3.5) -- Thurs., 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video) Pick: Vikings +3.5 The Chargers' (4-3) impressive start is officially a distant memory after last Sunday's one-sided loss to the Colts. At 1-3 in its last four games -- with the only win coming in a nailbiter vs. the lowly Dolphins -- L.A. is in desperate need of a win to right the ship. This week, Jim Harbaugh's team has a difficult matchup vs. a Vikings (3-3) defense that is third in the NFL in pressure rate, at 29.2 percent. I'm not confident in Justin Herbert, who has been pressured on 27.7 percent of his dropbacks -- more than any quarterback besides Justin Fields -- getting enough time to throw for the Chargers to cover. And we haven't even mentioned how unreliable favorites have been on TNF the last few weeks. Obviously, what happened to the Rams, Eagles and Steelers on TNF in Weeks 5, 6 and 7 does not help the case for the Chargers to cover. Bills (-7) at Panthers -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX) Pick: Panthers +7 Coming off of two disappointing losses, followed by a well-timed bye, the Bills (4-2) are heavy road favorites vs. Carolina (4-3), where Panthers QB Bryce Young (ankle) will likely be on the sidelines. I think the Carolina defense is good enough to keep this one close, though, as Buffalo's lack of pass-catching talent is making it increasingly difficult for this offense to move the football. I don't see the Panthers winning their fourth in a row with Andy Dalton under center, but the underdogs are playing well enough at home this year that I like them at +7.5. Dolphins at Falcons (-7.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS) Pick: Falcons -7.5 It's hard to shake the feeling that the Dolphins (1-6) have quit on head coach Mike McDaniel. Atlanta (3-3) has been up-and-down offensively this year, but if Cleveland -- which had not scored more than 17 points all season before facing Miami last Sunday -- could score 31 on the Fins, then how many could the Falcons put up? Until this team proves otherwise, penciling in Miami to lose big every week feels like a rock-solid approach right now. Jets at Bengals (-6.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS) Pick: Bengals -6.5 The Bengals (3-4) had one of the best offensive performances of Week 7, as the recently acquired Joe Flacco torched the Steelers for a huge upset win at home last Thursday night. Flacco might not be able to move the ball quite as well this week against the Jets (0-7), but I don't see Tyrod Taylor or Justin Fields making nearly enough plays to take down the Bengals on the road. Giants at Eagles (-7.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX) Pick: Giants +7.5 The Giants (2-5) are coming off one of the most disappointing losses any team has suffered all year after (somehow) losing to Denver in a game they led 19-0 entering the fourth quarter. I don't expect the Eagles (5-2) to get upset by their division rivals for the second time in three weeks, but at the moment, I don't quite like Philadelphia to cover at -7.5, either. Browns at Patriots (-7) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX) Pick: Browns +7 Drake Maye and the Patriots (5-2) are as hot as any team in the league right now, and they'll likely be a popular bet to win this one going away. But although three of Cleveland's (2-5) five losses have come by at least 14 points, I think the excellent Browns defense will keep this game close, especially if the Patriots struggle to run the football. New England is coming off a huge day on the ground, but on the season, the Pats have had one of the least effective running games in the NFL. Bears at Ravens (-6.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS) Pick: Bears +6.5 On one hand, I understand why the Ravens (1-5) are expected to bounce back, especially if QB Lamar Jackson, LB Roquan Smith and several other key pieces for Baltimore return from the bye week healthy. But even before injuries played a huge role in John Harbaugh's team getting blown out in Weeks 4, 5 and 6, the Ravens defense was struggling, allowing 41 points in a Week 1 loss to the Bills and 38 in a Week 3 loss to the Bears. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Ravens win this one, but against a suddenly humming Bears (4-2) ground game that piled up 367 rushing yards over the last two weeks, I don’t see Baltimore winning going away. 49ers at Texans (-1.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX) Pick: 49ers +1.5 The 49ers (5-2) remain a long way from full strength, but after stifling a good Atlanta offense in a 20-10 win last Sunday night, I’m not picking against the Niners in this week’s clash with a Texans offense that has been a mess up front for more than a year now. Houston (2-4) once again played well on D last Monday night, but CJ Stroud is not getting enough protection for me to take the Texans against a good, albeit injured, opponent like San Francisco. Buccaneers (-4.5) at Saints -- Sun., 4:05 p.m. (FOX) Pick: Saints +4.5 If there’s an NFC team that has been hit harder by injuries than the 49ers, it has to be the Buccaneers (5-2). With veteran WR Mike Evans now out for the season after breaking his collarbone on Monday night, Tampa Bay is running out of options on offense. At this point in the week, there's still time for a couple of the following players to recover in time to start on Sunday, but WRs Chris Godwin Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, plus guard Luke Haggard and RB Bucky Irving all missed Wednesday's practice. Meanwhile, the Tampa defense practiced Wednesday without defensive starters Antoine Winfield Jr., Christian Izien, Haason Reddick and Lavonte David. The Saints (1-6) are one of the worst teams in the league on paper, but they've been tough at home, with three of losses by a touchdown or less and a win. Betting on Spencer Rattler has not been a great recipe for success this season, but I think he'll find a way to keep this game close. Cowboys at Broncos (-3.5) -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS) Pick: Cowboys +3.5 Dallas (3-3-1) has been outstanding offensively, even with CeeDee Lamb out of the lineup vs. the Packers, Jets and Panthers. With Lamb back in the mix last Sunday, Dallas cracked 400 yards of total offense for the fourth time this season in a 44-22 win over Washington. Denver (5-2) might have the best defense Dak Prescott and Co. have faced this year, but based on what we've seen from Bo Nix, I'm not taking the Broncos to cover more than three points, even at home. Titans at Colts (-14) -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS) Pick: Colts -14 The Colts (6-1) -- whose point differential of +92 is not only the best in the league, but is 28 (!) points better than Detroit's second-best differential of +64 -- have won four games this season by at least 14 points, including three by at least 21. The Titans (1-6), on the other hand, have four losses by at least two touchdowns, including a 41-20 loss to the Colts at home in Week 3. I expect Tennessee to put up more of a fight this weekend under interim head coach Mike McCoy, but I don't see the Titans getting enough stops to cover on the road, even as massive dogs. Remember, when these teams met in Week 3, the Colts had one of their most efficient offensive performances of the year, averaging 6.9 yards per play on just 53 offensive snaps. Even if the Titans are able to move the ball at times, Indy should win this one comfortably. Packers (-3) at Steelers -- Sun., 8:20 p.m. (NBC) Pick: Packers -3 The Packers (4-1-1) have cooled off since looking like world-beaters in Weeks 1 and 2, but they still strike me as a better team than the Steelers (4-2). Pittsburgh's win over New England looks better (and harder to understand) with every passing week, but this team's other wins came against the severely offensively challenged Jets, Vikings and Browns. The Steelers D was exposed by Joe Flacco and the Bengals' quick passing game in a Week 7 loss, and I expect that unit to struggle against Jordan Love and the Packers. In a fascinating clash between Aaron Rodgers and his former team, I like the road favorite Packers to follow the formula we watched the Bengals execute to perfection and not only outscore the Steelers, but cover. Commanders at Chiefs (-12.5) -- Mon., 8:15 p.m. (ABC, ESPN) Pick: Chiefs -12.5 Based on the last few weeks, there are a number of teams that would need to be catching at least two touchdowns for me to take them to cover at Arrowhead. The Chiefs (4-3) are just playing that well right now, as the offense suddenly looks red-hot after a sluggish start without either Xavier Worthy or Rashee Rice. It's a bit early to say that 2024 NFC runner-up Washington (3-4) is in free-fall, but at minimum, it's fair to say that the Commanders defense is not playing well enough right now for this team to beat a contender like the Chiefs on the road. With Jayden Daniels officially out with a hamstring injury, now is the time to take Kansas City at -12.5, as this line could very well close at closer to Chiefs -14. Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the sportsbook operator's terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.
