Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season brings several pivotal matchups, including the Denver Broncos visiting the Philadelphia Eagles, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers heading west to take on the Seattle Seahawks and the Washington Commanders hoping to get Jayden Daniels back when they face the Los Angeles Chargers. This is also the first week we will see teams on byes, with the Packers, Bears, Falcons and Steelers all off. What does this mean for those interested in NFL betting when it comes to building parlays?
If you’re looking to create parlays for Week 5 NFL games, be sure to check out what SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman has put together. He’s going with two parlays for Week 5, with one featuring only favorites on the money line and the other featuring only underdogs.
Week 5 NFL money line favorites parlay
Betting heavy favorites can be a solid strategy if you want to bet on a three-team NFL money line parlay. This approach focuses on teams with odds of -150 or better, which means you lean towards high-probability outcomes. By pairing three teams that usually have odds between -150 and -350 or even higher, you’re not only aiming for consistent, modest returns, but you’re also stacking the deck in your favor for a higher chance of winning. Remember you can still parlay a favorite with odds of -140 or less to avoid laying 2.5 points, which can significantly impact your chances of winning. You have to win all three legs for a successful wager.
According to BetMGM data, NFL money line favorites at -115 or shorter posted a 68% win percentage in 2023, with a 66.5% rate in 2022. Over the six-season period from 2018-2024, NFL money line favorites maintained a 66.6% win rate (1,013-508-7). The strength of favorites correlates directly with their odds. In sports betting, if you see teams with odds between -150 and -200, they generally have a solid chance of winning, with around a 60-65% success rate. Teams that are even bigger favorites, with odds from -250 to -400, tend to be more reliable, showing win rates of about 70% to 80%. The 2024 NFL season stood out for favorites, with an overall win rate hitting 71.8%.
NFL favorites dominated the opening week, winning 13 of 16 games for an 81.2% success rate. The second week saw more competitive results, with favorites winning nine of 16 games for a 56.2% success rate. In Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season, 12 out of 16 favorites won outright, giving betting favorites a 75.0% success rate. Last week, favorites struggled on a relative basis, going 10-5-1. NFL betting favorites have won 44 out of 64 games through the first four weeks of the 2025 season, resulting in an overall success rate of 68.7%. That number is currently below the 71.8% mark from last year. What does it mean for Week 5? Check out Jeff’s top money line parlays and underdog picks this week.
Indianapolis Colts over Las Vegas Raiders
The Colts have a significant advantage on the offensive line, ranking fourth, while the Raiders are ranked 29th. That’s always a great way to start when analyzing the most likely winner. The Colts present exceptional value as heavy money line favorites against a Raiders team in complete disarray. Indianapolis boasts one of the league’s most explosive offensive units, ranking fourth in pass offense DVOA despite facing relatively manageable competition. Daniel Jones appears to be a completely different quarterback under the guidance of head coach Shane Steichen.
Meanwhile, Las Vegas enters Week 5 having surrendered 24.8 points per game, while allowing 5.5 yards per play (21st). The Raiders’ pass defense sits 21st in DVOA, creating a nightmare matchup against the Colts’ aerial attack. Las Vegas has also struggled with consistency, ranking 25th in pressure rate at just 30% while allowing opponents to exploit their secondary repeatedly.
The Colts have been ruthless against weaker competition, demolishing Miami 33-8 and Tennessee 41-20 when facing teams of similar caliber to the Raiders. The Raiders are giving up 4.5 yards per carry, ranking 21st in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Colts have a well-balanced ground attack. As a result, expect the home team to dominate this game from the start. Jonathan Taylor will likely have a standout performance against the Raiders’ front seven.
Los Angeles Chargers over Washington Commanders
The quarterback situation for Washington is becoming more defined as the week progresses. Jayden Daniels is expected to return from a knee sprain, although he may be limited. Even if he is healthy, Daniels has struggled, earning a disappointing QBR of 34.2 over his first two games. That puts him 30th among quarterbacks. The Commanders have struggled offensively without their top receiver, Terry McLaurin, who remains questionable with a quad injury. Washington will play its third road game in four weeks, and the cross-country trip adds to fatigue.
The Chargers are nicked up on the offensive line, down two tackles, but will the Commanders be able to exploit that? I am not so sure. The Commanders have generated pressure on opposing quarterbacks on 33.6% of dropbacks, ranking 18th in the NFL this season. Expect L.A. to control the time of possession with a balanced attack, keeping Washington’s offense off the field and preserving their defensive strength. The Chargers aim to extend their home record in this series to 6-0. I typically want to support Jim Harbaugh after a loss. He has a 16-8 record in his NFL coaching career in that role.
Kansas City Chiefs over Jacksonville Jaguars
Patrick Mahomes owns the Jaguars, posting a perfect 4-0 record while averaging 331 passing yards and outscoring Jacksonville by 10.2 points per game. The Chiefs quarterback has thrown nine touchdowns against just four interceptions across these matchups, demonstrating complete mastery of Jacksonville’s defensive schemes. The Chiefs enter this contest riding momentum from their dominant 37-20 victory over Baltimore, where Mahomes threw for 270 yards and four touchdowns. That performance marked his first four-touchdown game since 2023 and showcased the explosive potential of Kansas City’s revamped receiving corps. Getting Xavier Worthy back significantly enhances both the passing and running game for the Chiefs.
Jacksonville’s offense remains problematic, with Trevor Lawrence completing just 58.3% of his passes and struggling particularly on downfield throws, going 0-for-9 on passes over 20 yards. He’s struggling to make the throw to wide-open receivers. The Jaguars rank 28th in EPA per play among quarterbacks, creating significant concerns against a Chiefs defense that has allowed only nine plays over 20 yards this season. Kansas City has played the third-toughest schedule, while the Jaguars have played the 24th hardest. The Chiefs are getting healthier at receiver, and I think they take care of business in prime time.
Week 4 NFL money line underdogs parlay
This is a very popular option is available if you’re willing to take on a bit more risk for a potentially higher reward. Underdog money line parlays offer the largest possible payouts in the NFL betting landscape. Combining three underdogs with odds like +200, +150, and +300 could result in payouts exceeding 20-to-1 or higher. The best part is that, due to the high payouts, underdog parlays can still be profitable even when winning only a small percentage of bets. For example, hitting just one of several large underdog parlays could offset multiple losses and generate overall profit. NFL underdogs have historically outperformed expectations in specific situations.
Denver Broncos over Philadelphia Eagles
This matchup features the two best offensive lines in the league, with the host team holding the No. 1 spot. The Eagles’ perfect record masks significant concerns about sustainable success. Philadelphia has been outgained by opponents in every game and ranks dead last in drives that fail to gain a first down at 46.3%. Their offense has been inconsistent, averaging negative yards in last week’s victory, while relying on defensive turnovers and special teams scores.
Bo Nix is coming off a career-best 326-yard, three-touchdown performance against Cincinnati, completing 75% of his passes against the blitz. Denver’s defense has proven capable of controlling games, limiting Cincinnati to 159 yards in its Week 4 victory. The Eagles’ travel schedule has been disruptive with alternating home and away games. Philadelphia’s recent victories, with margins of just 4, 3, 7, and 6 points, indicate the Eagles are on the brink of losing. Denver’s balanced attack and improved quarterback play make the Broncos dangerous against an Eagles team that hasn’t delivered complete performances. This line has steadily decreased throughout the week, with sharp action on the road dog. I agree.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Seattle Seahawks
The Buccaneers present compelling upset value despite traveling to the notoriously difficult Lumen Field. While Seattle’s home-field advantage has been legendary, recent trends suggest vulnerability, with the Seahawks posting just a 3-6 home record last season and 13-14 at Lumen Field over the past four seasons. Tampa Bay’s resilience stands out — all three wins have been one-score victories (23-20, 20-19, 29-27) — demonstrating an ability to grind out close games. Baker Mayfield has passed for 904 yards and eight touchdowns with just one interception over four games. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers’ defense ranks fifth in run defense, allowing only 85 rushing yards per game, and has also generated strong pass-rush pressure with 10 sacks. The Seahawks want to run the ball early and often, and that plays right into the strengths of the Buccaneers’ stop unit. Sam Darnold has been less effective in obvious passing situations.
I love betting underdogs with the better offensive line. Tampa Bay’s unit sits in the league’s upper half (14th), reflecting strong cohesion, low pressure rates, and efficient run-blocking. Seattle, ranked 24th, has struggled in pass protection and yields more pressures and quicker rushes on opposing edge rushers, placing the Seahawks well below Tampa Bay’s level of play. I like the road team to continue its winning ways.
Tennessee Titans over Arizona Cardinals
Tennessee’s 0-4 start, coupled with last week’s 26-0 shutout loss to the Houston Texans, has created long odds at +340, presenting a classic “buy-low” opportunity for a team with significantly more talent than its record indicates. The Titans’ offensive struggles can be attributed to injuries. Positive reports indicate JC Latham will return, providing Cam Ward with time to throw, which should also open up some running lanes. The Titans allow only 17 more yards per game compared to the Cardinals. It’s not like the home team has a shutdown defense. I believe the Titans can move the ball effectively; they need to convert in the red zone into touchdowns instead of field goals.
Arizona’s offense has struggled for consistency. Kyler Murray has been sacked frequently and has thrown interceptions in back-to-back games. The Cardinals are ranked 26th in yards per play (4.3) while playing the 30th-easiest schedule. The Titans have played the seventh-hardest schedule and rank dead last in yards per play. Despite their awful start, this represents exceptional value against a Cardinals team that has won by razor-thin margins. Arizona’s two recent losses came by a combined four points, and their two wins were by one possession.
Historically, Tennessee has performed well as a road underdog against the NFC West, winning eight of its last nine games against NFC West teams. I like the spot for the Titans after getting humiliated, and at +340 it’s worth a bet.