How on earth are we already a month into the season? Crazy how time flies when you’re watching football every other day! We got some decent value from this column last week, especially with the Thursday night game, although ultimately it didn’t matter. The lack of a touchdown for Jaxon Smith-Njigba hurt and left us with a 2-2 early bets week in Week 4.
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As we move further into the season, it’s possible lines get sharper … it’s also possible we know more about these teams and are able to identify some good sniping spots early in the week. I’ll also keep an eye out for early player props to include as well. Let’s find some value.
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Bet it now: Cowboys vs. Jets Over 46.5
This line is already on the move, and chances are it closes closer to 50 after what we saw from the Cowboys offense on Sunday night and the Jets offense on Monday night. The Jets weren’t that impressive for much of the night, including a bunch of mistakes that allowed the Dolphins to look like the ’85 Bears for the first half last night. But once the Jets actually stopped shooting themselves in the foot, they were pretty decent on offense, and the trio of Justin Fields, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson showed it can provide some pretty darn explosive plays. We also just saw the Cowboys offense lob up 40 points on the Packers defense! Also, most importantly, both of these defenses clearly stink. The Dolphins had no problem moving the football, and the Cowboys haven’t shown an ability to really stop anyone.
Bet it now: Lions -9.5
Full disclosure: this line could easily be -10 by the time you’re reading it. And I’m not sure it matters that much. Yes, 10 is a key number, but the Lions were just favored at home by 10 against the Browns — a team with an actually good defense and an equally comparable offense to the Bengals — and it didn’t stop anyone from betting on them or the Lions from covering pretty easily. In other words, I think money and bets will keep coming in on Detroit regardless of the point spread until we get a little bit higher, so I would take them now before it gets out of hand, even if it’s at 10. The Lions have something to prove; they’re flexing on offense and the Bengals are completely helpless to stop anyone at the moment, with zero chance of help arriving any time soon. The total in this one is pretty large and climbing as well, which kind of insinuates an expected all-out offensive assault from the Lions.
Bet it now: Christian McCaffrey TD (-140)
This is the first of two touchdown scorer bets I want to get out ahead of because the price isn’t that bad for either player considering their usage and considering how much goal line work they get, along with receiving action. I mean, I don’t need to sell you on Christian McCaffrey, right? He should be north of -150 in my opinion considering how many targets he’s getting, regardless of the quarterback, and I would expect this to steam a little between now and Thursday night. It’s Christian McCaffrey, and he’s a reasonable price in a prime-time matchup against a hated division rival with a lot on the line. Yes, the Rams’ defense is good, but they’ll still give up a touchdown or two, and we have a 46.5-point total here to work with.
Bet it now: DeVon Achane anytime TD (-130)