Well that was fun, wasn’t it? Week 4 was spicy with plenty of scoring, a tie on Sunday night and some Rams ATS redemption. Now we roll right back into Monday Night Football with another doubleheader because apparently we can’t get enough football (spoiler: we can’t). When you’re pumped about a Bengals vs. Broncos and Dolphins vs. Jets doubleheader, you know you’re truly sick in the head.
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The Sunday prop picks in this space were decent, and the anytime touchdown scorer bets were OK, but we definitely shredded on the against the spread wagers. Let’s see if we can keep it up!
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Best bets for Monday Night Football
Jets at Dolphins Over 44.5
Give me the Over in this one, because who is stopping anyone in this game? The Jets have turned everyone they’ve played into the 2007 Patriots so far this season, and the Dolphins are even worse, having given up 30+ points to every single team they’ve faced so far this season. There’s a chance Mike McDaniel tries to slow things down significantly and run the football like he did against the Bills 10 days ago, but I think the Jets and Justin Fields get him involved in a shootout regardless. The Dolphins have playmakers who can produce points and produce them quickly, and if we get a couple of quick-strike looks, it could start going back and forth pretty quickly. The bottom line is neither team can stop a reasonable offense at all, and both teams should be highly motivated to go out and try and climb out from the bottom of the division. The Over on two winless teams, welcome to Monday night!
Broncos -7.5
This is a lot of points, and it’s a little concerning given how mediocre Bo Nix has been this season. But I’m of the belief Sean Payton badly wants to get Nix going and have him look 2024 sharp in this primetime home spot. And you couldn’t ask for a better opportunity than the Bengals defense, which has been absolutely putrid for the entire season. The offense still has weapons for Cincy, but without Joe Burrow, they’re definitely in danger of being blown out. With the Chiefs winning and the Chargers losing to the Giants, the division is wide open all of a sudden. It’ll still be a tough race, and if the Broncos want to get in the mix, they absolutely have to show up and show out tonight. I think there are points a plenty on the Denver side, but Cincy will struggle to keep up, and the Broncos will put enough on the board in the first half to keep this a multi-score game throughout.
Monday Night Football player props
Ollie Gordon Under 7.5 rush attempts
It’s a little juicy on this Under. It’s not a huge number at all, but I think the power back stuff for the Dolphins gets thrown out the window early when this game turns into a shootout (the total keeps rising and could get even higher by kick). The Dolphins aren’t going to be able to slog this out, and I think that means less Gordon on the field and fewer rushing attempts for the bigger back. That also would mean a lot more De’Von Achane on the field for Miami as the Dolphins try and keep up the pace with the Jets.
Marvin Mims longest catch Over 15.5 yards
Mims is a gadget guy, and we have a game here where the Broncos are huge favorites, so I want to be a little careful with his props and not attack anything related to volume. I do think, however, Sean Payton will scheme up some big play stuff for Bo Nix in this spot, and Mims is the perfect player to do it with. We’ve seen him explode in primetime spots before with downfield looks, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if there were some options on the play call sheet tonight as well.
Anytime touchdown scorer picks
De’Von Achane -125
The only game in which the Jets haven’t allowed a running back to score was Week 3, when they gave up four hundred Chase McLaughlin field goals en route to losing to the Buccaneers. Otherwise they’ve been gashed by opposing backs, giving up touchdowns on the ground (James Cook) and through the air (Jaylen Warren). Achane is the motor that makes the Dolphins run, and he’s going to see plenty of touches in this one, including the high-value stuff down by the goal line. This price on DraftKings isn’t just fair; it’s actually a really good value, especially relative to the rest of the market and the rising total in this game.
Ja’Marr Chase +185