Parlays are an incredibly popular form of NFL betting, and there are quite a few different strategies to target when creating a parlay. Two popular betting strategies are backing either favorites or underdogs across the slip. For Week 4, which teams should you be backing when you’re looking to build parlays or place individual bets?
Betting expert Jeff Hochman has created two Week 4 NFL parlays, with one composed entirely of favorites and the other consisting of all underdogs.
Week 4 NFL money-line favorites parlay
Betting heavy favorites can be a solid strategy if you want to bet on a three-team NFL money-line parlay. This approach focuses on teams with odds of -150 or better, which means you lean towards high-probability outcomes. By pairing three teams that usually have odds between -150 and -350 or even higher, you’re not only aiming for consistent, modest returns, but you’re also stacking the deck in your favor for a higher chance of winning. Remember that you can still parlay a favorite with odds of -140 or less to avoid laying 2.5 points, which can significantly impact your chances of winning. Remember, you have to win all three legs for a successful wager.
According to BetMGM data, NFL money-line favorites at -115 or shorter posted a 68% win percentage in 2023, with a 66.5% rate in 2022. Over the six-season period from 2018-24, NFL money-line favorites maintained a 66.6% win rate (1,013-508-7). The strength of favorites correlates directly with their odds. In sports betting, if you see teams with odds between -150 and -200, they generally have a solid chance of winning, with around a 60-65% success rate. Teams that are even bigger favorites, with odds from -250 to -400, tend to be more reliable, showing win rates of about 70% to 80%. The 2024 NFL season stood out for favorites, with an overall win rate hitting 71.8%.
NFL favorites dominated the opening week, winning 13 of 16 games for an 81.2% success rate. The second week saw more competitive results, with favorites winning nine of 16 games for a 56.2% success rate. In Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season, 12 out of 16 favorites won outright, giving betting favorites a 75.0% success rate.
NFL betting favorites have won 34 out of 48 games through the first three weeks of the 2025 season, resulting in an overall success rate of 70.8%. What does this mean for Week 4? Check out Jeff’s top parlays this week.
Green Bay Packers over Dallas Cowboys
The Green Bay Packers are seeking redemption after their shocking Week 3 loss to Cleveland. Dallas will be without several key players along the offensive line, and CeeDee Lamb (ankle injury) remains out. The Cowboys have little depth due to some less-than-stellar draft picks over the last two years.
The Cowboys’ defense ranks 23rd in pass-rush win rate and just surrendered 31 points to Chicago. The Packers own a +1.6 net yards per play differential while playing the seventh-toughest schedule. Conversely, the Cowboys have a -0.8 net yards per play differential while playing the 20th-hardest remaining schedule. Green Bay has won and covered in its last five trips to Dallas. Lock it up.
New England Patriots over Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers are in a challenging position after their Week 3 30-0 win over Atlanta. NFL road teams have a record of 6-11 straight up after shutting out their opponents at home since 2012. I don’t see much room for the Panthers to run the ball effectively in this matchup.
New England has been exceptional against the run, ranking second in the NFL by yielding only 60.3 rushing yards per game through three weeks. Carolina’s ground game averages 90 rushing yards per game and will struggle to find space behind New England’s front seven. Mike Vrabel has a proven ability to put quarterbacks in clear passing situations. This trend will likely continue against a Panthers offense that averages only 186.3 passing yards per game. Additionally, Carolina will play its third road game in four weeks. New England by 10.
Los Angeles Rams over Indianapolis Colts
The Los Angeles Rams return home after a heartbreaking loss to Philadelphia last week, while the Indianapolis Colts are 3-0 after easily defeating the Titans. Both teams have a net yards per play differential of +1.6, but the Colts have faced the most manageable schedule through three weeks, whereas the Rams have played the 15th-toughest schedule.
Indianapolis has scored 103 points in its first three games combined and will now travel west for its second consecutive road game. It’s not the best of spots for a team that hasn’t played a truly elite offense. Indianapolis cornerback Kenny Moore II is doubtful, which compromises the Colts’ nickel defense. Sean McVay will likely exploit this weakness. Indianapolis ranks last in red zone defense, allowing teams to score a touchdown 100% of the time. With the Rams’ red zone efficiency at 25% last week, I expect the home team to bounce back.
Week 4 NFL money-line underdogs parlay
A very popular option is available if you’re willing to take on a bit more risk for a potentially higher reward. Underdog money-line parlays offer the largest possible payouts in the NFL betting landscape. Combining three underdogs with odds like +200, +150 and +300 could result in payouts exceeding 20-to-1 or higher. The best part is that, due to the high payouts, underdog parlays can still be profitable even when winning only a small percentage of bets. For example, hitting just one of several large underdog parlays could offset multiple losses and generate overall profit. NFL underdogs have historically outperformed expectations in specific situations.
Atlanta Falcons over Washington Commanders
The Falcons offer excellent value despite their 30-0 loss to Carolina. Atlanta significantly outgained the Panthers in that game, with poor special teams and turnovers leading to the lopsided score. The Falcons rank seventh in net yards per play (+0.8), and the team’s defense ranks fifth in opponent EPA (expected points added) per play. The Commanders own a +0.5 net yards per play; however, they have played an easier schedule (No. 27 vs. No. 13).
Atlanta has lost four consecutive games to Washington, including a painful 30-24 overtime defeat late last season. The Falcons led 17-7 at halftime in that game but still finished with a 5.6-5.4 yards per play edge. NFL teams that return home as underdogs after being shut out have a record of 10 wins to nine losses straight-up, and 13 wins to five losses and one tie against the spread since 2012. Atlanta represents a classic buy-low opportunity after its shutout loss, while Washington may be due for regression after its dominant performance against a travel-weary Raiders team that played on short rest.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Philadelphia Eagles
Tampa Bay offers solid underdog value this week. The Buccaneers are 3-0 and represent the only undefeated team facing another undefeated squad. Tampa Bay’s defense ranks fifth in opponent yards per carry (3.6) and first in opponent rush EPA. The Eagles rely heavily on running the ball (54.1% of plays, first in NFL) but face Tampa Bay’s elite run defense.
Raymond James Stadium has been particularly unkind to the Hurts-led Eagles. Philadelphia has struggled with the humidity, Tampa Bay’s defensive pressure and what multiple sources describe as “badly-timed lethargic play” in Florida. The Eagles have lost four of their last five games against the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay, including devastating playoff defeats of 31-15 in 2022 and 32-9 in 2024.
New York Giants over Los Angeles Chargers
The New York Giants will bench veteran Russell Wilson in favor of first-round rookie Jaxson Dart. His fresh legs and play-making upside allow New York to inject energy into an offense desperate for a spark at MetLife Stadium. The Chargers have very little game tape on the rookie.
It’s evident that Dart’s threat to run from spread formations will open up running lanes and set up play-action for Malik Nabers and company. Nabers was completely shut down against Kansas City and looks poised to bounce back. I would consider his receiving props to go Over.