Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
If you like watching train wreck television, then you’re definitely going to want to watch Thursday’s game because the Miami Dolphins are playing. The Dolphins are 0-2, haven’t won in Buffalo in nearly a decade and have a quarterback (Tua Tagovailoa) who has never won a Thursday night game. Oh, and their head coach (Mike McDaniel) is on the hot seat. That is the perfect recipe for disaster.
Speaking of the hot seat, we’ll be unveiling our first hot seat rankings of the 2025 season in today’s newsletter. We’ll also be making some picks and best bets for the game in Buffalo.
As always, here’s your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let’s get to the rundown.
1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Dolphins at Bills
The Dolphins will get a chance to do something they haven’t done since 2016: Beat the Bills in Buffalo. Including the playoffs, the Bills have won nine straight home games against the Dolphins, and they could push that to 10 straight with a win in a game where they’re favored by 11.5 points. The game will be kicking off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime.
Jared Dubin put a preview together for this game. Here’s how he sees it playing out:
Why the Dolphins can win: If the Bills defense has shown one weakness this year, it’s their ability to stop the run. The Bills are surrendering an average of 169 yards per game on the ground, which is the second-worst total in the NFL. For the Dolphins, that means they need to figure out how to get De’Von Achane going. If the Dolphins can run the ball, that will allow them to control the clock, which will keep Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense off the field. In four career games against the Bills, Achane has averaged 116.8 yards from scrimmage. If he can have another big game, that will take some pressure off Tagovailoa and the passing game, which could open the door for an upset.
Why the Bills can win: There is nothing Allen loves to do more than beating the Dolphins. The Bills QB has faced them 15 times in his career and gone 13-2 in those games. Allen has been nearly unstoppable against Miami, throwing for an average of 272.6 yards with 45 touchdown passes while throwing just 14 interceptions. The Bills have also won nine straight at home against the Dolphins, and they’ve won those by an average of 13.9 points per game. When these teams meet, Sean McDermott always seems to be one step ahead of Mike McDaniel, and if you throw in Allen’s dominant play against the Dolphins, that’s why these games always seem to turn into blowouts. We could see another one Thursday.
You can get a full preview of the game from Dubin by clicking here.
If you’re thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props (odds via BetMGM):
ONE RUSHING PROP I LIKE: James Cook OVER 84.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115): In Week 1, Cook only totaled 44 yards on the ground but added 58 receiving yards to hit 102 total yards in the game. In Week 2, Cook went off against the Jets with 135 total yards, with 132 of those coming on the ground. Basically, Cook has been unstoppable through two weeks, averaging 118.5 yards from scrimmage. With the Bills playing on just four days of rest and with Allen kind of beaten up after getting his face smacked Sunday, I could see the Bills leaning heavily on their run game to get them through.
ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Matt Prater OVER 7.5 points (-130): The Bills’ 40-year-old kicker is averaging 11.5 points per game through two weeks, and there’s no reason to think he won’t get near that number again. The Bills have a high-powered offense and McDermott has no issues when it comes to settling for field goals, which means Prater should see a lot of action.
If you’re wondering how my props are doing this year, I’m 5-4 (3-1 on kicker props and 2-3 on all other props).
And now, it’s time for some picks.
PICKS FOR ‘TNF’
Dubin’s pick: Bills 33-16 over Dolphins
Pete Prisco’s pick: Bills 33-17 over Dolphins
Tyler Sullivan’s pick: Bills 33-17 over Dolphins
Jordan Dajani’s pick: Bills 30-14 over Dolphins
My pick: Bills 30-20 over Dolphins
We’ve got some more picks over on our CBSSports.com predictions page, and you can check that out here.
2. NFL hot seat rankings: Mike McDaniel’s seat is scalding hot heading into Thursday night
With the Dolphins playing Thursday, we thought now would be a good time to unveil our first hot seat ranking of the 2025 NFL season and that’s mostly because — SPOILER ALERT — Mike McDaniel is at the top of the list.
Let’s check out who’s sitting on the hottest seat heading into Week 3 (Rankings by Jeff Kerr):
1. Mike McDaniel (Dolphins). The Dolphins’ season already appears to be over after two games, as Miami is off to an 0-2 start after a blowout loss to the Colts and a close defeat at the hands of the Patriots. … The road doesn’t get any easier with the Bills in Week 3, which is the definition of a must-win game. It doesn’t seem McDaniel will survive the season, but when will he be let go?
2. Brian Daboll (Giants). The Giants are in the midst of a rebuild, and Daboll may be able to survive it because general manager Joe Schoen is still around. But it’s hard to defend a coach who is 9-27 over the past three seasons, even if the Giants will eventually turn to first-round rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart at some point.
3. Brian Callahan (Titans). The Titans don’t know how to win, and that falls on coaching. Callahan has been under the microscope for his play-calling and inability to challenge a catch that seemed obvious in Week 1, and the Titans offense as a whole has been out of sync. The Titans aren’t good, but Callahan may not be a good coach, either.
If you want to know why each of these coaches made the list, you can read the full story by clicking here.
There will be a lot of pressure on McDaniel against Buffalo: If Bills blow the Dolphins out, that will be four losses in a row for Miami dating back to last season. The Dolphins get the Jets in Week 4 and the Panthers in Week 5, so they could bounce back from 0-3, but if they lose those games, it wouldn’t be surprising to see McDaniel get the axe.
3. NFL Week 3 picks: Eagles and Bengals improve to 3-0
Welcome to the part of the newsletter where we hand out picks, and let me just say, you will definitely want to pay close attention to my picks this week because I went 15-1 straight-up in Week 2. That’s right, I only missed one pick. Hopefully that doesn’t mean I just peaked, because if that’s the case, the rest of the season could get ugly.
We have four NFL writers — Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself — handing out picks this week. In Week 2, we combined to go 2-2 straight-up and 2-2 against the spread.
If you’re new here, here’s how things work: I’ll give you one Week 3 pick from each writer and then direct you to the rest of their picks for the week. That way, if you like their pick, you’ll be able to click over and check out all of their Week 3 picks, but if you hate their pick, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on with your life.
Pete Prisco — Eagles (-3.5) 28-21 over Rams. “This is the game of the week, featuring two 2-0 teams and a rematch of the NFC divisional round playoff game won by the Eagles last January. The Rams rallied in that game, but they are playing consecutive road games here, which is a challenge.” For the rest of Prisco’s Week 3 picks, be sure to click here.
Tyler Sullivan — Packers (-8) 28-17 over Browns. “The Packers are going to be well rested heading into this road matchup with the Browns after playing last Thursday night, which furthers their advantage. … The Cleveland offense leaves a lot to be desired with Joe Flacco under center. The veteran quarterback has a 70.1 passer rating this season, which is the second-worst among non-rookies to start both games at QB this season. Green Bay’s defense should have a field day.” For the rest of Sullivan’s Week 3 picks, be sure to click here.
Jordan Dajani — Broncos (+2.5) 24-23 over Chargers. “I’m calling an upset here in Week 3. The reason Denver lost to Indy on Sunday (other than a random penalty on that field goal), was Jonathan Taylor running wild for 165 yards, plus another 50 and a touchdown through the air. That won’t happen with the Chargers’ run game.” Dajani’s full slate of picks will be released Friday, and you’ll be able to find them here.
John Breech — Bengals (+3) 23-20 over Vikings. The Bengals are three plays away from being 0-2, but somehow, they seem to find a way to win every week, and now they’re playing a Vikings team that still hasn’t scored a first-quarter touchdown, a second-quarter touchdown or a third-quarter touchdown this year. That’s a lot of quarters without a touchdown. I think I’ll take the Bengals. For the rest of my Week 3 picks, be sure to click here.
For more Week 3 NFL picks, you can check out our CBSSports.com picks page here.
4. NFL Week 3 upset alert: 5 favorites that could go down
There is no one better at picking upsets than Tyler Sullivan. In this spot last week, Sullivan predicted three upsets with the Seahawks beating the Steelers, the Colts defeating the Broncos and the Buccaneers outlasting the Texans.
Sullivan did so well with his predictions that I begged him to put five more teams on upset alert for Week 3.
Here are three games that could end in an upset this week:
Texans (+1.5) over Jaguars. Both of these AFC South clubs choked in the final seconds of Week 2 losses and seek Week 3 rebounds. For Houston, this is a must-win game after dropping to 0-2 on the season. If the Texans fall to 0-3 as games at the Ravens and Seahawks loom, their season could deteriorate quickly. On top of the Texans having the bigger motivation for this contest, I don’t love the way Trevor Lawrence is playing through two weeks.
Cowboys (+1.5) over Bears. I was optimistic about the Bears entering 2025, but it took just two weeks for me to jump ship. I don’t like what I’ve seen from Caleb Williams, as the former No. 1 overall pick still looks to be making similar mistakes we saw in 2024 despite having Ben Johnson in his ear this year. … That sets up Dak Prescott and the Cowboys quite well to go on the road for their second straight victory.
Patriots (+1.5) over Steelers. Pittsburgh’s defense has quietly allowed 32 and 31 points over the season’s first two games — and the special teams unit hasn’t been buttoned up, either. That’s a long way of saying that the Steelers have lots of warts, making them a tough team to back on the road in most scenarios, including here against New England. The Patriots are another team with flaws, but they have enough talent to pull off a home win.
If you want to see Sullivan’s full list of possible upsets for Week 3, we’ve got them here.
5. Ranking 0-2 teams: Who still has a chance at the playoffs and whose season is over?
When it comes to trying to make the playoffs, getting off to an 0-2 start is usually the kiss of death in the NFL. Since the playoffs expanded to 14 teams in 2020, there have been 41 teams that have started 0-2 and only five of them have bounced back to make the playoffs.
With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to rank the 0-2 teams based on how much they should be panicking right now. That means the team at the top of these rankings should be panicking the most while the team at the bottom has nothing to worry about. We’re going to take a look at the top two and the bottom two in his rankings.
1. Dolphins (Should be panicking the most). The Dolphins already have internal problems with their head coach and have looked bad in both their games against opponents that were considered beatable. Now Miami heads to Buffalo for a Thursday night showdown against the hottest team in the NFL — a game the Dolphins have to have.
2. Giants. The 0-2 start by the Giants isn’t a surprise, but New York really needed to win against Dallas in Week 2 (Giants took the Cowboys to overtime and were leading with under 40 seconds left). Now, the Giants finally play a home game — against an 0-2 Chiefs team desperate for a win.
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9. Texans. The Texans played two good teams in their first two games, hence the 0-2 start. Sunday’s showdown against the Jaguars is a must-win, especially since C.J. Stroud has been sacked 58 times since start of the 2024 season.
10. Chiefs. The Chiefs had to play a game in Brazil against a 2-0 team and the defending Super Bowl champions at home (also a 2-0 team). The schedule hasn’t been easy to say the least. That should change Sunday against a Giants team that doesn’t match up to their talent level. There is pressure on Kansas City to take care of business here, a prototypical “get right game” for the Chiefs. The season should get back on track this week.
If you want to see Kerr’s full ranking, be sure to check out his story here.
We also ranked all the 2-0 teams based on who looks like a contender and who looks like a pretender, and you can see that ranking here.
6. Extra points: Commanders’ new stadium approved
It’s been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
Commanders are getting a new stadium. The Washington DC city council approved the financing plan for the Commanders’ stadium on Wednesday, which was the final hurdle standing in the way of the $3.8 billion project. With the stadium now approved, the Commanders are hoping to start construction soon. Under their current timeline, the domed venue could open in time for the 2030 season. We’ve got the full details here on the approval.
Can the Bengals survive without Joe Burrow? With Burrow out until at least mid-December, will the 2-0 Bengals be able to stay in the playoff race without him? To figure that out, I went through their schedule and predicted how every game is going to play out over the next 15 weeks. If you want to know how Cincinnati’s season is going to end, you can find the answer here.
Khalil Mack placed on injured reserve. The Chargers defense took a huge blow Wednesday with Mack being placed on IR due to an elbow injury he suffered during Monday’s win over the Raiders. The injury means he’ll now miss at least the next four games, which will come against the Broncos, Giants, Commanders and Dolphins.
Brock Purdy has chance to play this week. After missing Week 2, it appears there’s at least a chance Brock Purdy plays this week against the Cardinals. “He does have a chance” head coach Kyle Shanahan said Wednesday when asked if his starting QB might play. Purdy is dealing with injuries to his toe and shoulder. If he can’t go, then Mac Jones will start for the second straight week.
Jayden Daniels could miss Week 3. The Commanders QB didn’t practice Wednesday due to a knee injury, and it’s looking more and more like he could miss this week’s game against the Raiders. “He is truly day-to-day. What does that mean for Sunday? I can’t tell you that now,” Commanders head coach Dan Quinn said Wednesday. If Daniels can’t go, that means Marcus Mariota will get the start. You can read more about Daniels’ status here.