Not a banner week for “Dajani Dimes,” as we went 8-8 against the spread. I suffered through some bad beats with my top picks, as Russell Wilson found a way to turn the clock back on the Dallas Cowboys, the Denver Broncos lost to the Indianapolis Colts because of a ridiculous leverage penalty and the Carolina Panthers mounted an epic comeback against the Arizona Cardinals. At least we knew the Los Angeles Rams could cover 5.5 points against the lowly Tennessee Titans.
Gambling on the NFL got a bit tougher with all the quarterback injuries. Jake Browning replaces Joe Burrow for the Cincinnati Bengals, Carson Wentz gets a shot with the Minnesota Vikings after J.J. McCarthy suffered an ankle injury and Marcus Mariota may get a chance to lead the Washington Commanders against his former team in the Las Vegas Raiders. I bet Kirk Cousins’ agent is frantically calling around trying to get the 37-year-old signal-caller another shot.
Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager:
Top five picks ATS record: 4-6
Overall ATS record: 17-15
Straight up record: 21-11
Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
The Falcons are coming off a dominant, 22-6 victory against the Vikings. It surprised me Atlanta was an underdog in the matchup given that J.J. McCarthy did not look like he belonged in the NFL for the first three quarters of his NFL debut.
I have two main takeaways from the Falcons’ Week 2 performance: One, Bijan Robinson is an elite running back. He rushed for 143 yards after having a 100-yard receiving game in Week 1. Two, the Falcons finally have a pass rush. This group recorded six sacks vs. the Vikings! I’m excited to see how James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker develop over the course of this season.
The Panthers mounted a great comeback vs. the Cardinals and Tetairoa McMillan recorded his first 100-yard outing, but this defense has really struggled. Plus, Bryce Young’s offensive line took a couple massive hits with Robert Hunt and Austin Corbett. The Panthers have allowed an NFL-high 175.7 rushing yards per game since the start of last season (the next highest average in the NFL over that span is 140.6 yards per game), so I’m expecting a big game from this Falcons offense.
The pick: Falcons -5.5
Projected score: Falcons 27-20
Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
Fading the Titans has been great for us so far, so why stop now? The Colts look solid with Daniel Jones at quarterback. They became the first team in NFL history to score points on each of their first 10 offensive drives of the season, and still haven’t punted yet. Tyler Warren looks like a star tight end, Jonathan Taylor is playing like the No. 1 running back in the NFL and the defense overcame injuries in the secondary last week to upset the Broncos.
Despite the 0-2 record, the Titans have actually been competitive vs. two teams clearly better than them. This defense forced four turnovers vs. Denver, and held a halftime lead against Matthew Stafford. But what we’ve seen is that the wheels fall off for the Titans in the second half. Tennessee figures to again not have right tackle JC Latham in the lineup, which is a blow to a unit that’s arguably the worst in the NFL. The Titans also may not have cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, who did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday due to a back injury. The Titans’ next best corner, Jarvis Brownlee Jr., is dealing with an ankle injury as well.
The Titans are 3-16 ATS since the start of last season, which obviously ranks worst in the NFL, and are 0-9 ATS at home. This is a legitimate rivalry that could be a close game, but ultimately, Indy wins by enough points to cover.
The pick: Colts -4.5
Projected score: Colts 26-20
Las Vegas Raiders at Washington Commanders (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
Geno Smith looked horrible in his Raiders home debut, throwing for just 180 yards and three interceptions. He completed 0 of 10 passes and threw two interceptions on passes of 10-plus air yards! With that being said, I expect Jayden Daniels to not play in this game due to a knee injury, and I don’t trust Marcus Mariota.
The 2025 Commanders haven’t looked like the 2024 Commanders. Apart from Daniels’ early-season struggles, the secondary has looked bad, Washington can’t seem to cover tight ends and Terry McLaurin has been a complete non-factor. If you’re giving me the hook at 3.5, I’ll take Vegas.
The pick: Raiders +3.5
Projected score: Commanders 19-17
Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
Did you know that Dak Prescott is a lock to win NFC Offensive Player of the Week in Week 3? That’s because every quarterback that has played the Bears so far this season has won NFC Offensive Player of the Week! J.J. McCarthy took home the honors after leading an 11-point fourth-quarter comeback against Chicago on its home field in Week 1, and then Jared Goff tore up the Bears for 334 yards and five touchdowns in Week 2.
I’m not going to pile on Caleb Williams and the offense for how they have started the season, because I’m much more concerned about this defense. Through two weeks, the Bears are allowing 382.5 yards of total offense per game, which ranks fifth-worst in the NFL, and 39.5 points per game, which ranks worst in the NFL.
Yes, the New York Giants’ offensive explosion vs. Dallas last week was surprising. I don’t think the Cowboys are legitimate Super Bowl contenders, but I do think they are better than the Bears.
The pick: Cowboys -1.5
Projected score: Cowboys 28-23
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
The Lions certainly got up for Ben Johnson’s return to Detroit, but can they get up in the same way for a prime-time game on the road against the Ravens? I’m not declaring the Lions as “back” just because they destroyed a bad team. Meanwhile, I think the Ravens are arguably the best squad in the league.
Baltimore rushed for 238 yards and dropped 40 points on the Buffalo Bills in Week 1. Yes, the headline from that game was Buffalo’s remarkable comeback, but it was an impressive offensive output from Baltimore regardless. Then, the Ravens dropped 41 points on the lowly Cleveland Browns this past Sunday. The Ravens are 6-1 all-time vs. the Lions, with their last meeting coming in 2023. The Ravens won that game, 38-6. Lamar Jackson has 22 passing touchdowns and zero interceptions on Mondays. It’s the most passing touchdowns without an interception by any player on any day of the week in NFL history.
The pick: Ravens -5.5
Projected score: Ravens 27-21
Other Week 3 picks