The second week of the 2025 NFL season provided complete carnage for the league moving forward. The majority of favorites held serve outright, even if they didn’t cover, but the biggest story of the week — by far — was the number of quarterback injuries we’ll be dealing with early in the season.
Joe Burrow is out for three months, an obviously significant blow to the Bengals’ season. J.J. McCarthy has a high-ankle sprain and is set to miss a few weeks. Jayden Daniels popped up on the injury report with a knee sprain on Monday. Brock Purdy remains up in the air for the 49ers, particularly with Mac Jones playing well. And Justin Fields is in concussion protocol for the Jets. That’s a whopping five starting quarterbacks — more than 15% of the league — who might not be under center for their teams in Week 3.
It’s going to dramatically affect how these lines move, and if we can read the cards correctly, we could potentially get some value.
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Last week we didn’t get much CLV from this column, and the action we got wasn’t worth much, with the Saints and 49ers going way Over their 40.5 total (we grabbed it at 42.5 on the expectation Purdy wouldn’t play). The Commanders had a chance for a backdoor cover but were the wrong side. The Jaguars and Cardinals were the worst and second-worst beats of the NFL week, respectively. Yay, Eagles, thanks.
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Bet it now: Bills -12.5 vs. Dolphins
The Dolphins were better last week, but the bar was on the ground after their Week 1 bludgeoning at the hands of the Colts. The Bills followed up their incredible comeback against the Ravens with an absolute thumping of the Jets on Sunday, a casual 20-point road win in the division. So who do we trust on a short week? I mean, come on. This is a ton of points, and it’s very possible for the Dolphins to storm through the back door. Tua Tagovailoa was actually in the top five in terms of most catchable passes last week, and I’ve got a few concerns with Tyreek Hill having a squeaky wheel game, but I just don’t see the Dolphins slowing down the Buffalo offense at all. Sean McDermott likes to step on throats in the division, and I think they’ll run up the score. Most importantly, I could easily see this sniffing 14, at which point you’d be hard-pressed to bet it.
Bet it later: Commanders -3 vs. Raiders
This is kind of a no-bleep Sherlock situation, I guess, but let’s talk about this game. You cannot possibly lay points with the Commanders without knowing what Daniels’ status is going to be, and the fact this line has dipped to Commanders -3 in some spots probably isn’t a great sign for the young quarterback. But it’s early days for sure, and Washington has had an extra few days to try to get Daniels in a spot where he’s ready to roll. But it’s also concerning he’s on the report Monday after a Thursday night game, and there’s no question Washington will err on the side of caution. I actually think backing Marcus Mariota at home, if it’s less than 3 points, with the Raiders traveling across the country on a super short week would be interesting, so I think the move here is to hold and see what happens with Daniels. If he’s cleared to play, it might mean he can’t run as well as you’d like, and the Raiders getting more than a field goal would be intriguing for sure.
Bet it now: Cowboys money line (+100) at Bears
It’s been a rough start to the season for the Bears, who suffered an epic meltdown in Week 1 before getting a 50-burger dropped on them in Detroit last week. The Cowboys aren’t exactly the ’85 Bears or anything (which is reflected in the 49.5-point total), and it’s possible Chicago gets it going on offense here against Dallas’ defense. But I would expect some adjustments after the Giants ran free against the Cowboys’ secondary last week. I’m also not certain the Bears and Caleb Williams will be as consistent as Russell Wilson was last week, which could mean variance moves toward Dallas in this one. Dak Prescott got cooking last week and shouldn’t see much pushback from a questionable Chicago secondary. I think this line moves toward Dallas, and you’re staring at closer to -115 for a closing moneyline.
Bet it now: Panthers team total Under 19.5 vs. Falcons