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Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season features one of the biggest games of the season as the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams battle for first place in the NFC West. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is playing like an MVP candidate, but the resurgent Sam Darnold has catapulted Seattle into the thick of the Super Bowl race. Which team will come out on top -- and which team is worth incorporating into your Week 11 NFL parlays? If you're looking to get into parlay betting and NFL betting for Week 11 NFL games, be sure to see what SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman has put together. He's going with two parlays for Week 11, with one featuring only favorites on the money line and the other featuring only underdogs. Week 11 NFL money line favorites parlay NFL betting favorites have won 103 out of 148 games in the first 10 weeks of the 2025 season, achieving an overall success rate of 69.5%. This figure is slightly below last year's mark of 71.8%. What does this mean for Week 11? Will the underdogs start to bark or will favorites dominate? Texans -340 at. Titans Houston represents a historically prohibitive favorite value, ranking as elite across all offensive and defensive metrics. The Texans' defense ranks second in yards per play allowed (4.6) and allows a league-low 16.7 points per game. Tennessee's offensive infrastructure (4.3 yards per play), while scoring 14.3 points per game, will have a hard time generating first downs even with two weeks to prepare. Tennessee's offensive predictability, stemming from weak receiving depth and inconsistent rushing, presents challenges against an elite defense. The Texans' money line at -340 offers excellent value on risked capital, making this an optimal selection. Houston's pass-rushing tandem of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. presents a nightmare scenario for rookie quarterback Cam Ward and Tennessee's porous offensive line. Tennessee has allowed 34 sacks through nine games—an alarming rate that ranks among the worst in football. Left tackle Dan Moore Jr., signed to an $82 million contract in the offseason, has allowed 25 total pressures and seven sacks (tied for most in the league), failing to provide the protection required for Ward's development. The Texans defeated Tennessee 26-0 as 7.5 home favorites in Week 4, outgaining them 353-175. I see no reason why Houston won't win their sixth meeting of the previous seven matchups. That performance marked the Texans' first shutout since 2010 and exposed the fundamental weaknesses that continue to plague Tennessee's offense. The Titans have trailed at halftime in each of their last 11 games against AFC opponents, and Houston has scored the first touchdown in each of their previous four meetings with Tennessee. You should look at the Texans on the money line in the first half as well. Bills -250 vs. Buccaneers The Buffalo Bills enter this contest as prohibitive favorites with a money line of -250, despite their disappointing performance against the Miami Dolphins, where they were 10-point road favorites in the Florida heat and humidity. The weather was a significant factor in that game, but we will see a resurgence from the Bills in this matchup. The Bills are top-tier in rush offense DVOA, generating 39.9% of their offensive yards from the ground attack (fifth-highest percentage). Buffalo's home-field advantage is pronounced following divisional defeats. They have been a money-making machine in this exact spot against non-conference foes. Tampa Bay's defense has been terrific in run-stop efficiency (second in opponent rush success rate), but faces mathematical mismatches against the elite Bills' rushing scheme. Josh Allen's ground-attack integration reduces pass-dependency variance. With the Bills ranked sixth in total offensive DVOA and the Buccaneers 24th, there is a clear path to victory. Buffalo's defense will show up in a big way with support from their home crowd. I have seen this movie before. At a -250 money line, the Bills are an optimal favorite, benefiting from environmental factors and sustainable execution. The Buccaneers' previous close wins this season may decline as they face their coldest weather game yet. Packers -375 vs. Giants Green Bay is my top money line choice, presenting value despite recent offensive issues. The Giants rank 30th in defensive DVOA, allowing 383 yards and 27.3 points per game, placing them 27th overall. Despite scoring only 20 combined points over the last two games, Green Bay's underlying metrics (fifth in offensive DVOA) exceed surface-level performance, suggesting sustainable reversion toward mean efficiency. New York's coaching and roster chaos (Daboll firing, Jameis Winston starting under center) creates execution volatility. The Packers' ground attack, led by Josh Jacobs, will slice and dice New York's 31st-ranked rush defense. Despite opening at -8.5, the Packers' money line at captures a high win probability with minimal downside variance after market compression to -7.5. This matchup features an NFC playoff contender against the league's worst defensive efficiency. I don't know how the Giants will be able to move the ball consistently on a down-by-down basis. Betting on the Packers' money line against a vulnerable team is an easy decision for me after their 10-7 loss on Monday Night Football. Week 11 NFL money line underdogs parlay A popular option is available if you're willing to take on a bit more risk for a potentially higher reward. Underdog money line parlays offer the largest possible payouts in the NFL betting landscape. Combining three underdogs with odds like +200, +150, and +300 could result in payouts exceeding 20-to-1 or higher. The best part is that, due to the high payouts, underdog parlays can still be profitable even when winning only a small percentage of bets. For example, hitting just one of several large underdog parlays could offset multiple losses and generate overall profit. NFL underdogs have historically outperformed expectations in specific situations, with home underdogs of +2 to +3 winning outright 46-48% of the time. Bengals +195 vs. Steelers Pittsburgh enters this matchup having dropped three of its last four games. Most concerning, Aaron Rodgers delivered his worst performance as a Steeler in Week 10 against Los Angeles. The 41-year-old completed just 51.6% of his passes (16-of-31) for only 161 yards with two interceptions and one touchdown -- his lowest completion percentage in five seasons. He was sacked three times and missed all five deep passing attempts of 20+ yards. Perhaps the 8:15 PM EST body clock start time impacted his performance. He looked old and slow. While Rodgers has historically bounced back from poor outings, his recent trajectory is troubling: his passing yardage has decreased in three consecutive games, and he has been sacked nine times over that stretch. Cincinnati received its bye week in Week 10, coming at the optimal time in the schedule. The Bengals enter this game fully rested and recovered, while Pittsburgh will play for the sixth straight week. Most studies have shown that this matters statistically once the calendar flips to November. The Bengals' travel schedule is also the lightest in the NFL, with only 8,736 total miles traveled in 2025, providing an ongoing recovery benefit throughout the season. We have seen this movie before. Cincinnati already defeated Pittsburgh this season, winning a thrilling 33-31 contest on Thursday Night Football. The historical data also favors Cincinnati: the Bengals have won three of their last four games as underdogs against the Steelers. Additionally, the Steelers have lost each of their last two games as home favorites following a loss, which describes their exact situation entering this matchup. Teams returning from a bye week have a 12-6 record this season. I love the Bengals on the money line. Seahawks +140 vs. Rams This might be the game of the week. The Seahawks at +140 represent significant value against the Rams in this NFC West showdown. Both teams are 7-2 and competing for divisional supremacy. The Seahawks' current trajectory and matchup dynamics suggest they'll outpace a Rams squad that has benefited substantially from turnover differentials rather than sustainable play-by-play excellence. Sam Darnold is quietly leading the NFL in net yards per attempt at 9.4 yards -- a full yard ahead of the second-place quarterback (Drake Maye). This efficiency translates directly into offensive EPA production, where Seattle ranks first in points per play at 0.535 while the Rams check in at sixth with 0.438. The Seahawks generate more offensive value on every snap, which compounds over 16 plays to generate significantly more scoring opportunities. When accounting for efficiency per play rather than volume statistics, Seattle is playing a more dominant brand of football than Matthew Stafford's MVP-caliber season suggests. It's pretty surprising, even without analyzing the numbers in detail. Based on advanced metrics, the Seahawks should be favored by -125 on the money line, making the current +140 significantly undervaluing their efficiency advantages. Professional models frequently incorporate EPA generation, turnover variance normalization, and road game context -- all factors currently favoring Seattle. Both teams have manageable injury situations. Seattle has questions about linebacker Ernest Jones IV and cornerback Josh Jobe heading into Sunday. At the same time, Los Angeles deals with WR Davante Adams (oblique) as a game-time decision and Tutu Atwell, who remains out. Neither team faces crippling personnel loss, but the Seahawks' defense is sufficiently deep to absorb linebacker questions given their scheme-based defensive excellence under Mike Macdonald. The road team has a historically high DVOA rating, so let's play the Seahawks, who have won 10 consecutive games away from home. Cardinals +140 vs. 49ers Both teams are currently facing multiple injuries on defense. The road team's money line is still too high. The Cardinals' loss last week marked their first defeat by more than four points this season. They have a history of bouncing back in such spots and will be playing for revenge. Arizona lost 16-15 as 2-point underdogs on the road in Week 3, with Kyler Murray at quarterback against a much healthier team. Jacoby Brissett should find more success in a controlled environment compared to the challenging outdoor venue last week. The continuity of Brissett's familiarity with the Cardinals' offense -- he's now making his fourth straight start -- contrasts sharply with the 49ers' quarterback situation, which remains muddled. While Mac Jones has performed well for San Francisco, the coaching staff is highly anxious about Brock Purdy's return. This situation introduces uncertainty about who will start and whether the team's focus will be divided. San Francisco's defense has become a liability that has offset an otherwise respectable performance by Mac Jones against Los Angeles. In Week 10, the 49ers defense allowed 401 total yards, 31 first downs, and 42 points, featuring the defense missing Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, and Mykel Williams. Their depth has been tested due to the injuries to their second and third-string players as well. This is a terrific spot for the home team to secure a victory.
