Copyright The Boston Globe
The 373 fourth-down attempts through Week 8 are the most in NFL history (dating to 1991). And the 58.7 percent success rate is also the best in NFL history through Week 8 (57.2 in 2020). Each game this year sees an average of 3.1 attempts on fourth down. That’s practically double the number of attempts from 2014 through Week 8 (1.56 per game). You can’t coach in the NFL in 2025 if you’re not willing to go for it on fourth down. “I remember when I first started calling plays, fourth down, unless you were in that fuzzy gray area, the 38- to 43-yard line, there was a lot of punting,” said Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who has been calling plays for 20 years. “I think it has definitely changed the way the game is being played now. It’s fun as an offensive coach.” Former Chargers coach Brandon Staley got fired in 2023 after three seasons because fans and ownership weren’t comfortable with some of his aggressive fourth-down calls, but he was definitely on to something. The Lions have made aggressive fourth-down calls the team’s identity, going for it the second-most of any team since coach Dan Campbell arrived in 2021 (166 times, compared to the Browns’ 168). The Lions have scored the NFL’s third-most points since Campbell arrived, and are 32-9 since 2023. Earlier this year against Baltimore, Campbell kept his offense on the field in the fourth quarter instead of punting from midfield, picked up the first down, and later scored the game-icing touchdown. “It really kind of demoralizes the defense,” Lions guard Graham Glasgow said. Going for it on fourth down so often not only gives the Lions extra chances to score, but builds team chemistry because Campbell is showing his faith in the offense. And success on fourth down tends to beget more success. “We’ve done it so much to where it’s just normal,” Lions guard Taylor Decker told the website Go Long. The explosion in popularity of analytics in recent years has taught a lot of coaches the benefits of going for it on fourth and short instead of relying on punts and field goals. Most teams have also likely taken note of the Lions’ success, and are starting to recognize the benefits of being aggressive. Even if a team fails on a fourth-down attempt, it can still instill confidence in the players. “If you don’t get it, that’s OK,” Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy said. “At least everybody knows this is how we’re going to do it, and we’re going to go down this way. And then when you do get it, it’s just contagious.” Chiefs coach Andy Reid has historically been one of the more conservative coaches in the NFL. Between 2021-24, the Chiefs went for the fewest fourth-down attempts of any team (66). But Reid has turned into a riverboat gambler this year. The leaders in fourth-down attempts are bad teams — the Panthers, Browns and Jets with 19 apiece — but the Chiefs are tied for fourth with 17 fourth-down attempts, and an impressive 14 conversions. In their Week 6 win over the Lions, the Chiefs went 4 for 6 on fourth down. “Those are all subjective decisions,” Reid said. “I thought it was the right thing to do, especially when you play a team that scores a lot of points.” The Patriots’ 12 attempts on fourth down this year rank just 14th, but Mike Vrabel has definitely seen the light. Vrabel doesn’t always go for it — he highlighted a decision to take a field goal at the end of the half against Buffalo to ensure the Patriots came away with a score — but he ranks among the top coaches this year as far as going for it when the analytics say he should go for it. Hunter Henry scored a 16-yard touchdown on a fourth-and-2 play against Pittsburgh, and Vrabel even kept the Patriots’ offense on the field for a fourth-and-1 play from its own 15-yard line in the same game. “Sometimes there can be as few as eight possessions, and you have to make the most of them,” Vrabel said Friday. “You don’t want to be reckless. You want to be sound in your decision making — field location, flow of the game, weather, all things that factor into it.” The Patriots have rewarded Vrabel’s faith by converting 10 of 12 attempts this year. It helps that the average distance has been just 2.3 yards and only one attempt was longer than 6 yards (7). “The difference between 3 (points) and seven in this league can be the difference between a win and a loss,” Patriots center Garrett Bradbury said. “We never want to leave it up to a kick. If we have the ball in our hands, we have something we can do about it. So yeah, it fires us up for sure.” Embattled Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel was still employed as of Friday morning, despite his team dropping to 2-7 Thursday with a 28-6 loss to the Ravens. But the loss did cost general manager Chris Grier his job, with owner Stephen Ross announcing Friday morning that he and Grier “mutually decided to part ways” (insert eye roll). Grier, a Holliston native and son of former Patriots executive Bobby Grier, had been the Dolphins’ GM since 2016 and with the organization for 26 years. The Dolphins had a winning record in five of his 10 seasons, but did not win a playoff game. It seems odd to fire a GM and not the coach in late October — the GM’s work is mostly done for the year, save for the weekly churn at the bottom of the roster. But if Ross knows he’s going to fire the GM, it is smart to get a head start on the process of finding a new one, considering the draft and free agency prep that begins in earnest in January. McDaniel’s time is surely coming to an end soon, with the Dolphins regressing from 11-6 to 8-9 to 2-7 the last few years. A report from ESPN on Friday indicated that McDaniel is safe for the rest of the season, but Ross may want to reconsider if the Dolphins come home from Madrid with a 2-9 record in two weeks. Making McDaniel coach out the season as a dead man walking would be cruel. The only one who might survive the mess is the person Dolphins fans want out the most — Tua Tagovailoa, who despite his struggles has $54 million fully guaranteed on his contract next year. A few notes ahead of Sunday’s Patriots-Falcons game: ⋅ The Falcons went right to the Josh Allen comparisons for Drake Maye. “Very similar styles of play, and both very good, in my opinion,” Falcons coach Raheem Morris said. “You’ve got to prepare (for) those guys the same way.” Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, who was the Jets’ defensive coordinator and interim coach last year, had high praise. “He’s way better than I wanted him to be,” Ulbrich said. “He feels like a mini-Josh Allen, like a younger Josh Allen in a lot of ways. His mobility, his arm strength, the way he can take a game over with both facets of the game. So, he’s going to be a problem.” ⋅ Ulbrich said the Patriots’ offense reminds him of the Titans’ under Mike Vrabel. “It feels a lot like the Titans teams where you were going to get 30 to 40 duos, double doubles in the game, and they’re going hand the ball off to Derrick Henry,” he said. “Well, they’re doing the same thing now with Rhamondre [Stevenson] and the stable of backs that they have. They’ve been tremendously physical and tough and efficient on offense. And they’re catering to this quarterback too, as far as giving easy completions, easy reads. He’s doing a good job.” ⋅ Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson said the Patriots’ defense, ranked No. 9 in yards and No. 4 in points allowed, isn’t too complex a scheme. “It’s going to be an execution game, because they’re not showing too many different looks, different than some of the teams we’ve played,” Robinson said. “They’ll mix up their looks, of course, like any defense. But it does come down to just straight execution and who out-executes on both sides of the ball.” ⋅ The Patriots have owned this series. They have won seven in a row, with the Falcons’ last win coming in 1998. The last three matchups were: A 25-0 win for the Patriots in 2021; a 23-7 win for the Patriots in 2017; and, of course, the 28-3 comeback in Super Bowl 51. ⋅ The Patriots lead the NFL with 1,223 air passing yards. The Falcons have allowed the fewest 20-yard receptions (11) and yards after catch in the NFL (517). The Patriots also lead the NFL in the best stat — kneel-downs, with 13. ⋅ Patriots linebacker Christian Elliss, the team’s second-leading tackler (48), will see his older brother, Falcons linebacker Kaden Elliss. Their mom and younger brother will be in the stands at Gillette Stadium. This is the brothers’ second time squaring off in the NFL, the other coming in 2022 when Christian played for the Eagles and Kaden for the Saints. They took a few special teams reps against each other that day, and Kaden’s Saints got the win. “We were laughing basically the whole way down the field,” Christian said. We can’t let a Patriots-Falcons matchup go by without taking another look back at Super Bowl 51. Nine years later, most of the players and coaches have moved on. For the Patriots, only Josh McDaniels remains. The Falcons still have left tackle Jake Matthews, head coach Raheem Morris (who was wide receivers coach), defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich (who was linebackers coach), and chief of staff Steve Scarnecchia, son of Dante. Twelve players from that game remain active in the NFL, including Patriots tight end Austin Hooper, who as a rookie caught a 19-yard touchdown in the second quarter to put the Falcons up 14-0. Hooper, now in his 10th season (second in New England), rolled his eyes Thursday and quipped, “You guys love bringing it up,” when asked about the game. But while Hooper said he never re-watched Super Bowl 51 and doesn’t talk about it much, he doesn’t shy away from it, either. “It was a fun experience,” he said. “The ending wasn’t so great, but it’s awesome. As a little kid, that’s what you dream of, playing in that game. Some guys are taboo to talk about it, but I’m not. It’s like, no, it was a lot of fun, just ultimately the better team won.” Other players still active: Joe Thuney (Bears), Jimmy Garoppolo (Rams), Jonathan Jones (Commanders), Joe Cardona (Dolphins), Elandon Roberts (Raiders), Kyle Van Noy (Raiders), Ted Karras (Bengals), Jacoby Brissett (Cardinals), Grady Jarrett (Bears), Deion Jones (Bucs). While kickoff returns have skyrocketed due to the new rule placing the touchback at the 35, the number of return touchdowns has not. Antonio Gibson’s 90-yard touchdown in Week 2 remains the only one of the season. Patriots special teams coach Jeremy Springer said the new rules have created a lack of spacing that has made it difficult to break a long return. “It’s almost like a nine-on-seven drill,” Springer said Thursday. “When you catch the ball there’s a lot of space, then by the time you get to the 25- or 30-[yard line) it’s all closed up. I think it’s a lot harder to block than people thought it would be. And the kicks are everywhere now – they’re on the ground, they’re right, left, their angles change. All those different things that present to you make it tough.” The Sports Museum’s 24th annual fundraiser The Tradition is coming to TD Garden on Nov. 18. This year’s roster of honorees includes former Patriot Vince Wilfork, as well as Fred Lynn, Tim Thomas, Keegan Bradley, Isaiah Thomas, and Gabby Thomas. For information on tickets and sponsorships visit https://www.sportsmuseum.org/events/the-tradition/ … The Jaguars handling of Travis Hunter has been a disaster. They showed a lot of hubris in thinking they could prepare Hunter to play starting-caliber football at both receiver and cornerback, and he has barely made an impact at either position over the first half of the season. Now he’s out for a while, possibly the year, after suffering a non-contact knee injury in Thursday’s practice while playing cornerback … Josh Allen and the Bills have owned the Chiefs in the regular season, with four straight wins, including three in Kansas City. Of course, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs win the ones that matter, with four straight wins in the playoffs dating back to 2020 … The Giants are really going to miss Cam Skattebo’s energy. Entering Week 9, he leads the NFL with 12 broken tackles, and no other runner has more than nine … Lamar Jackson understands the stakes for the Ravens after the they started the season 2-5. He confirmed that he led the movement last week to remove the Ping-Pong table and other activities from the locker room. “Each and every game is going to be like a win or go home game,” Jackson said last week before Thursday night’s win against Miami. Despite their losing record, the Ravens are still the betting favorites to win the AFC North, thanks to the Steelers looking shaky in recent weeks … Panthers backup QB Andy Dalton broke the thumb on his throwing hand on the second snap last week against Buffalo, but still played the entire game. Dalton finished 16 of 24 for 175 yards and an interception in a 40-9 loss … The Vikings’ offensive line is a mess — their 12 different combinations this year are three more than any other team … The NFL’s two knuckleball kickers, the Panthers’ Ryan Fitzgerald and Rams’ Josh Karty, are still leading the NFL in opponents’ starting line after kickoffs, but not by as much as in September. The Panthers’ opponent starting line is the 25.3 yard line, the Rams are next at the 26.1, then the Giants at the 26.2. League average is the 29.7, and the Broncos are the worst at 32.4 … 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh will be in familiar environs Sunday when he faces the Giants in MetLife Stadium, where he previously was head coach of the Jets for 3½ years. His plans: “Get some pizza, go to the visiting locker room, and hopefully have a good day.”
