The Jets have a lot of problems. That’s why they’re the only team in the NFL without a win.
But even with all the new problems that have surfaced with their 0-5 start, there’s an old familiar one that hasn’t gone away. It’s the problem they’ve been trying, and failing, to solve since Joe Namath walked off the field at Shea Stadium, one last time, nearly 49 years ago.
They still don’t have a long-term answer at quarterback.
The Jets signed Justin Fields to a two-year, $30 million deal this offseason. Though it hasn’t crashed completely, it’s clear that he’s not the answer for this team long-term.
The good news? Three weeks before Halloween, they’re already in great shape to be picking first in the NFL Draft – they would be if the season ended today. But you won’t have to wait long for Jets fans to tell you the bad news about having the top pick in next year’s draft
“Yeah, but it’s a down year for quarterbacks.”
Or is it?
“The thing right now is, the guys that are playing the best – there’s a little bit of an unknown factor too,” ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller told NJ Advance Media this week. “You’re still trying to figure them out. But I still think it’s a really deep quarterback class.”
NJ Advance Media spoke with NFL Draft experts nationwide this week to capture a detailed snapshot of the college quarterback landscape a third of the way through the season. Who’s rising? Who’s on the decline?
We learned about the highly-touted passers who still have time to recover from their slow starts, the quarterbacks who have already shown the mental fortitude they’d need to handle a difficult situation with the Jets, and the big name who won’t be on anyone’s big board this spring.
“This class was always interesting, because there were always a bunch of intriguing names,” Steve Palazzolo, draft analyst for The 33rd Team, said. “But there were always so many what-ifs. Even the guys who had their names listed at the top, including Arch Manning, had a ton of what-ifs attached to them. So now I think it’s just different names that are rising.”
We learned about the previously under-the-radar quarterbacks who are suddenly blazing a path toward the top 10 of the NFL Draft, including Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore, who will square off in a massive showdown Saturday that could provide more concrete answers about the state of this quarterback class.
“It could and should change,” Miller said. “Because how someone plays in September is not always the story, especially now in the transfer portal era. … It’s still wide open. And I do think there’s still room for three or four quarterbacks to be considered first-round guys, and that’s even assuming some of these guys [stay in college] another year. There’s a lot of talent in this quarterback class, for sure.”
And that could be a good thing for the Jets, who seem destined to be picking very close to the top.
How we got here
Just a few months ago, the 2026 quarterback class seemed destined to be an upgrade over a 2025 class that produced only two first-round picks. Not because there was a clear No. 1 but because there were so many guys who had the potential to play themselves into a good position.
Of course, there was the massive hype that came with Manning’s elevation to the starting role at Texas, and the potential to write his own chapter in his family’s rich quarterback legacy. But there were also a group of familiar names in familiar places, looking to build on promising starts to their college careers: Drew Allar (Penn State), Cade Klubnik (Clemson), Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) and LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina) were all viewed as potential top 10 talents if they could build off of strong 2024 seasons.
It hasn’t happened for any of them.
“Unfortunately, none of those guys have really taken the next step,” Pro Football Focus lead NFL Draft analyst Trevor Sikkema said. “And I think for Nussmeier, Allar, and Klubnik, they’ve taken steps back. That’s been the disappointing part about this class. But that’s not to say there haven’t been good quarterbacks that have stepped up.”
A clear top prospect?
So, who’s QB1?
It’s the first question about any quarterback class. But it’s one that doesn’t have a clear answer for this one. Yet.
“There’s a number of really talented players, but it’s kind of a Baskin-Robbins, choose-your-own-flavor kind of thing,” Fox Sports NFL Draft analyst Rob Rang said. “I don’t believe there’s a slam-dunk, easy, No. 1-overall-caliber quarterback this year. I think it’s going to really depend on the schematic fit and, of course, which of these players decide to make themselves eligible.”
We’ll get to the eligibility question, which might be the biggest source of concern for the teams picking at the top of the draft. But for all the big names that have under-performed, there are guys who have unexpectedly put themselves into the top-of-the draft conversation.
And that list starts with Moore and Mendoza, who few expected to be at the center of the college football conversation when the season kicked off in September.
Moore started the year best known as a former five-star UCLA recruit who transferred to Oregon after five ill-fated starts, and backed up Dillon Gabriel (the Browns’ new starting quarterback) in 2024. Now, he’s a Heisman favorite after throwing 18 touchdowns and one interception in his first five starts at Oregon, calmly leading it to a huge double-overtime win over Penn State in one of the loudest, toughest places to play in the country two weeks ago.
“Whether it’s this year or next year, he’s going to be in the top 10 mix, regardless,” Palazzolo said. “NFL tools, talent, there’s a calm and great demeanor to Dante Moore’s game. And I think we saw it in the White Out against Penn State. It really is a challenging environment, and I watched him go in there, and it’s like he’s just hanging out with his friends throwing the ball around. Very calm. Very cool.”
Mendoza had more experience, starting 19 games at Cal with a 9-10 record. But no one knew how that would translate to the Big Ten, until he completed 21-of-23 passes for five touchdowns in his conference debut, a 63-10 win over No. 9 Illinois. His 16 touchdowns through five games match the career high he set last year at Cal (in 11 games).
“I really like him,” Miller said of the 6-5 quarterback. “I mean, he throws a beautiful pass. He’s got the arm strength, mobility. He’s able to do NFL things with the ball, with NFL size. Watching him in that offense is really exciting. It doesn’t take imagination, right? Sometimes it does in this job, you’ve got to watch a guy and be like, ‘OK, well, how’s it going [to translate]?’ With him, it’s not like that. He’s just talented.”
That’s why Saturday afternoon’s matchup between No. 7 Indiana and No. 3 Oregon (3:30 p.m., CBS) could land the top-performing quarterback at the top of the list.
But they’re not the only ones who have stood out.
Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer, who transferred from Washington State this offseason, emerged as a Heisman frontrunner by averaging more than 320 passing yards in his first four games – including a 271-yard showing in a Sept. 20 win over Auburn despite breaking a bone in his throwing hand in the first quarter. Mateer has a chance to turn even more heads Saturday, when he’s expected to attempt to play against Texas just 17 days after surgery to repair the broken bone.
“I mean, he’s just got this gravitating confidence,” Sikkema said. “You talk about guys like Joe Burrow or Baker Mayfield, who it’s just, it’s so easy to fall in love with how confident they play the position. That really feels like how Mateer plays. And I don’t think Mateer is as physically gifted as Joe Burrow or Baker Mayfield were when they came out, but the guy’s got so much moxie.”
And Alabama’s Ty Simpson has already endured a college career worth of highs and lows. He faced heavy criticism after a poor performance in his first career start against Florida State. But he’s bounced back with 11 touchdowns and just one interception, while averaging over 300 yards and completing 78% of his passes in the four games since — including wins over No. 5 Georgia and No. 16 Vanderbilt.
“We’ve seen him make NFL-type throws every single week,” Palazzolo said. “His first game, he was a tick slow getting through reads, it looked like his first major college start. But he’s just continued to progress, done it inside the pocket, outside the pocket, and done it in some really tough circumstances. Georgia’s a tough game, Vanderbilt’s a tough game.”
Not this year
There’s understandably a lot of uncertainty facing this draft class. But there was one thing it was easy to find a consensus: You won’t see Arch Manning in the 2026 NFL Draft, no matter how the rest of 2025 plays out.
“I think it’s a 0% chance,” Miller said. “That family is so intelligent about how they want to handle things. I took a lot of heat over the summer for saying it wouldn’t matter. They could win the national championship and he could win the Heisman Trophy, he was not going to be a one-and-done starter. That’s just not how that family operates. They want to set him up for success in the NFL. … I can’t imagine any scenario in which he would jump to the league.”
Clearly, Texas is not in a position to win a national championship after losing two of its first five games. And the conversation surrounding Manning, who has completed 60% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions, isn’t about the Heisman but the criticism he’s facing for falling short of the massive expectations that came with the first-year starter.
“Outside of a best-case scenario season, he probably wasn’t going to declare anyway,” Sikkema said. “And not only is this year not a best-case scenario. To be honest with you, it feels like a worst-case scenario. … I mean, his throwing motion, his mechanics look way worse than they were last year. His play under pressure has really dipped. His decision-making has just been a major issue. And now that there is tape on who he is, it feels like these SEC teams are kind of starting to eat him alive a little bit here.”
Manning is only a sophomore, so he has plenty of time to write a much different story. But it’s one that will be told in the 2027 or 2028 NFL Draft.
“He’s just not playing well enough to jump to the league,” Miller said. “I really like the kid. Like, you can see moments where it’s there. But he looks like the guy who has only started a handful of games, and he should be given the time to develop.”
Too late for a turnaround?
For some of the quarterbacks who have struggled, time might already be up.
Exhibit A: Klubnik. He entered this season with concerns over his size and mechanics. Clemson’s 1-3 start has only exacerbated those issues.
“The familiarity with Klubnik never matched up with the way NFL teams viewed him,” Miller said. “Which was as a backup quarterback.”
Even with a turnaround, it would be hard to see him climbing back toward the first round, let alone the top 10.
“I think any type of resurrection at this point,” Rang said, “Is going to put him more in the Day 2 conversation.”
The same goes for Allar, another senior who has all the physical tools to be effective at the next level but reinforced questions about his instincts and clutch performance when he was out-played in back-to-back losses to start the Big Ten schedule.
“The reason why a Drew Allar from Penn State has not taken that next step and his name is not being mentioned in the first round isn’t because of size or arm strength,” Palazzolo said. “It’s because he hasn’t stepped up and elevated his team and made plays in crunch time.”
But for other prospects like Nussmeier and Sellers, there’s still time to flip the script. And that’s why a whole lot of eyes will also be on Saturday’s matchup between South Carolina and LSU in Baton Rouge, which could also have a huge impact on the state of the 2026 QB class.
“I’ll say this: if Garrett Nussmeier was passing the ball like Dante Moore right now, he’d be the favorite to go No. 1 overall,” Sikkema said. “Same thing with LaNorris Sellers. If he was passing the ball like Fernando Mendoza, he’d be the favorite to go No. 1 overall.”
Yes, Nussmeier is a senior who hasn’t lived up to expectations. But the majority of experts believe that he’s regarded highly enough in NFL circles, in part because of his knowledge, (his father, Doug, went from the Eagles to the Saints to be the offensive coordinator this year) anticipation, vision and leadership – to still play himself into a favorable draft position, despite his shaky start.
“Still my favorite quarterback when you put it all together,” Rang said. “He has that poise, I like the background, the way he’s handled that spotlight at LSU.”
“He’s not as toolsy as some of those other guys,” Palazzolo said. “But he plays with anticipation, and has the types of traits you’re looking for in an NFL quarterback, even though overall it’s been a disappointing start to the season for him.”
And then there’s Sellers, who is clearly still capable of getting himself in the mix at the top of this year’s draft, according to every expert. But he’s also only a sophomore, so he has plenty of time to get it right.
Sellers has the size, mobility, and arm to make guys miss at the next level. And he hasn’t played poorly in 2025 – he just hasn’t taken the step everyone expected him to, completing 66.7% of his passes and for 886 yards, four touchdowns and one interception (with 48 carries for 98 yards and a rushing touchdown) through five games.
But if that changes, the draft board could, too.
“LaNorris Sellers could, starting Saturday, go on a heater,” Miller said. “And it just clicks for him, and we’re talking about a guy who’s played his way to the top pick in this draft.”
The right fit?
So, what does all this mean for the Jets?
They’ve learned the hard way, with their two top-five quarterback picks since 2018, that talent isn’t enough.
Zach Wilson, the No. 2 overall pick in 2021, still has the arm talent to put most of his NFL counterparts to shame, but it didn’t matter when he couldn’t figure out where to go with the ball. Sam Darnold, the No. 3 overall pick in 2018, has proven to have the talent and processing power to get the job done in the NFL. But he wasn’t good enough out of college to overcome bad coaching and a bad roster.
The situation is even tougher now for coach Aaron Glenn and general manager Darren Mougey, who will have to find a quarterback capable of handling not only on-field challenges but also the negativity and pressure of trying to fix a team that has been defined by losing for almost as long as they’ve been alive. The experts believe the Jets won’t have to worry about that with this group.
Sikkema likes Simpson because he’s already dealt with the highest imaginable expectations playing for Alabama. And proved he can handle it by bouncing back from a nightmare start. He likes Mateer because of the unshakable confidence he’s shown at Washington State and Oklahoma.
“Those are the two I’d be very intrigued with as options,” Sikkema said. “Just because the confidence they have and the pressure they’re facing right now. It’s a bit of a baseline of being able to manage what it would be to quarterback the New York Jets.”
Miller also highlighted Mateer’s remarkable journey from Incarnate Word University to Washington State to Oklahoma as a plus.
“It’s like, ‘OK, no one really wanted me, I had to fight and claw my way to the top, and I’m still doing it,’” Miller said of Mateer.
He also believes Moore, who sat behind Gabriel last year, and Nussmeier, who backed up Jayden Daniels at LSU in 2023, both benefited from a year in the shadow of a Heisman contender.
“I’m sure there’s an element of humbling yourself,” Miller said. “And having to bide your time. … All these guys have really battled and fought and proven themselves in that way,” Miller said.
Rang believes in Nussmeier, partly because of his background and instincts and partly because of his experience.
“I just think he is the best positioned to be able to handle it,” Rang said. “Not only the physical rigors of the NFL, but the mental rigors of New York and that spotlight.”
And that’s the biggest issue with this draft class at this point. The biggest names have the talent and makeup to succeed at the next level. And Nussmeier, a senior, will be on the board.
But Sellers, Simpson, Mateer, and Mendoza all have the option to go back to school for at least another year. With experienced college quarterbacks seemingly doing better immediately on the pro level, the Jets’ options could be limited whenever they’re on the clock this spring.
“I feel like all of those names, right now, as we sit in early October, probably would be best with another year of college,” Palazzolo said. “So my prediction is some names will surface, and some of them are going to go back to school, and it’s going to be an OK draft class. But I think it’ll be exciting for 2027, if that’s helpful at all.”